Betting Matchup Preview
Game Details
- Who: USA vs. Japan (WBC Final)
- When: Tuesday, Mar. 21, 2023
- Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
- Where: LoanDepot Park (Miami, FL)
Betting Odds Summary
- Moneyline: USA (-140), Japan (+120)
- Runline: USA -1.5 (+120), Japan +1.5 (-140)
- Total: Over/Under 10 Runs (-115/-105)
Note: Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. Subject to change.
After an exhilarating tournament, the MLB World Baseball Classic final has arrived. USA and Japan are set to square off.
The game should be full of excitement, drama, and, if oddsmakers are correct, lots of runs. With the over/under set at 10, the bookmakers at DraftKings expect punches in bunches on Tuesday night in Miami.
The rivals have never met in the WBC championship round before. However, Japan did knock USA out of the event in 2009 en route to their title win. Team USA has just one loss in this year’s tournament after blowing a game against Mexico, while Japan has yet to drop a single matchup. The latter secured their perfect record with a come-from-behind, walk-off victory over Mexico 6-5 on Monday.
Despite the one loss, USA is still the baseball betting favorite over Japan to hoist the hardware after Tuesday’s game. We believe Team USA is favored because of how they responded to their upset loss against Mexico. Since then, Team USA has scored 38 runs on 46 hits over its last four games.
The USA offense has all the tools required to make Japan’s left-handed starter Shota Imanaga’s night miserable. Righty powerhouses Tim Anderson, Paul Goldschmidt, and Trea Turner are considered left-handed hitting specialists. Anderson and Goldschmidt hit .396 and .411, respectively, against lefties last year. Goldschmidt and Turner both smacked home runs in Monday’s 14-2 blowout win over Cuba in the WBC semifinal.
Merrill Kelly gets the start for Team USA after a breakout 2022 season for the Arizona Diamondbacks. The right-hander went 13-8 with a 3.37 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP in his fourth season with the Diamondbacks.
Kelly struggled in his lone WBC appearance when he allowed two runs on four hits and two walks in three innings against Colombia. Despite that shaky appearance, Kelly is one of Team USA’s best pitchers.
The good news for Team USA is that Shohei Ohtani will not be Japan’s starting pitcher on Tuesday. However, they still have to deal with the former MLB MVP at the plate and potentially out of the bullpen. Therefore, it will be paramount for Japan to limit early runs from USA and try to take a lead that Ohtani can potentially protect. Ohtani said himself that he needs to put in some work at the plate before stepping on the mound for the final.
Kelly matches up well against Japan, but the underdogs showed some spark on Monday against right-handed pitching. Japan crushed Mexico’s bullpen for six runs in the final 3 1/3 innings of play. Japan has led the WBC in most offensive categories.
Team USA won’t have an easy day with Imanaga on the mound despite the favorable platoon splits. He is very aggressive, works fast, and pounds the strike zone. Expect a heavy dose of his splitter to counter righties, while same-sided hitters will see a lot of cutters. It won’t be a long night for Imanaga, but Japan hopes he can at least go 3-4 innings.
Imanaga will likely fall into early trouble, though. With so much offensive talent on the right side for Team USA, it’s only a matter of time before he makes a critical mistake. Yu Darvish will likely be the first man out of the bullpen for Japan, at which point the scoring floodgates could open.
USA vs. Japan Best Bet
Japan and USA are two of the tournament’s hardest-hitting teams and are only getting stronger. Neither is starting their best pitcher, and so the total, high as it is, is beatable.
Japan is averaging 8.8 runs per game and holds an average win margin of more than six runs per game. Team USA has the depth and power to hang with Japan in the final and, as a group, has a superior lineup.
USA is a reasonable bet to win as short favorites on the moneyline, but the over feels more likely to hit based on the sheer numbers both offenses are putting up in the WBC.
However, anything can happen. There are no sure bets in sports gambling.
