March is over, and only four teams remain in the men’s NCAA Tournament.
After a relatively chalky start to the tournament, there were some significant upsets in the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight, as all four No. 2 seeds and two No. 1 seeds went down.
No. 11 seed NC State, No. 4 seed Alabama and No. 1 seeds UConn and Purdue are the last teams standing, which almost no one saw coming. Only 297 brackets of the more than 22 million entries at ESPN correctly picked the Final Four, so congrats if you have one of them.
Those four teams will square off in Phoenix on Saturday for the right to play in the National Championship Game, which will take place two days later.
UConn is looking to become the first repeat March Madness champions since the 2006-07 Florida Gators. Meanwhile, Alabama is searching for its first championship in program history and NC State is trying to become the lowest seed in NCAA Tournament history to win it all.
With so much at stake this weekend, March Madness bettors should research these matchups before placing any wagers. Here’s a look at the odds and lines for the men’s Final Four.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. Subject to change.
NC State Wolfpack (11) vs. Purdue Boilermakers (1)
- Date: Saturday, April 6
- Time: 6:09 p.m. ET
- Location: State Farm Stadium (Glendale, AZ)
Odds Summary
- Moneyline: NC State +340, Purdue -440
- Spread: NC State +9 (-110), Purdue -9 (-110)
- Total: Over/Under 146 (-110/-110)
The Final Four kicks off with a matchup between NC State and Purdue.
The Wolfpack are on an incredible run and are playing in their first Final Four since 1983 – the last time they won a national title.
The ACC champs have won nine straight games dating back to the ACC Tournament, a span that includes two victories over Duke along with statement wins against UNC and Marquette.
Aside from its overtime win against Drake in the Round of 32, NC State has made things look easy so far, having won three of its four games by at least nine points.
Despite being down six at halftime to Duke in the Elite Eight, the Wolfpack racked up 55 points in the second half and cruised to a 76-64 victory.
Even so, NC State is still considered a heavy underdog in this matchup. Purdue won its first three tournament games by double digits before edging past Tennessee in the Elite Eight behind 40 points and 16 rebounds from reigning Wooden Award winner Zach Edey.
Edey has been unstoppable this tournament and is averaging 30 points and 16 rebounds per game. If the Wolfpack can’t find a way to slow him down, this could be the end of their Cinderella run.
According to KenPom, the Boilermakers have major advantages on both ends of the floor, ranking second in adjusted offensive efficiency and 16th in adjusted defensive efficiency. By comparison, NC State ranks 40th in offense and 45th in defense.
This is their first time facing each other this year, so Purdue’s talent advantage should win out. That said, the Wolfpack have covered the spread in seven of their last eight games, so we recommend taking the points with NC State.
The Under looks like a solid play as well given that both teams have hit the Under in three of their four tournament games so far.
Alabama Crimson Tide (4) vs. UConn Huskies (1)
- Date: Saturday, April 6
- Time: 8:49 p.m. ET
- Location: State Farm Stadium (Glendale, AZ)
Odds Summary
- Moneyline: Alabama +525, UConn -750
- Spread: Alabama +11.5 (-108), UConn -11.5 (-112)
- Total: Over/Under 160.5 (-112/-108)
Can anyone stop UConn? The Huskies are 25-1 over their last 26 games and have dominated the tournament, winning their four games by an average of 27.8 points.
The defending champs have been sensational on both ends of the court, averaging 81.3 points per game on offense while yielding just 53.5 points per game on defense.
Things haven’t been nearly as easy for Alabama. The Crimson Tide needed a late comeback to eke out a two-point win over UNC in the Sweet 16 and survived a high-scoring second half against Clemson in the Elite Eight.
Alabama has the offense to keep pace with UConn, as they’re averaging 90.6 points per game this year and rank third in adjusted offense on KenPom.
Alabama’s defense will likely be its downfall, however. The Crimson Tide allowed the seventh-most points per game (81.1) in the country this season and rank 104th in KenPom’s defensive ratings. That won’t be good enough against the best team and offense in the country.
For reference, Alabama allowed 50 points to Clemson in the second half of their Elite Eight game, while the Huskies haven’t allowed more than 58 points in any of their March Madness games.
With so much juice on the moneyline, there’s more value on the spread. UConn has won 10 straight March Madness games by double digits dating back to last year and is 26-12 ATS this season, including 9-1 in its last 10.
The Huskies have covered this line in seven of their last eight games, so expect another breezy win against the Crimson Tide’s porous defense.
As for the total, we’re leaning Under. While both offenses are electric, the Under has hit in eight of UConn’s last nine games. Look for the Huskies’ stingy defense to get enough stops to force the Under here as well.
Men’s NCAA Tournament Final Four History
Everyone has a different reason for watching March Madness.
For some, it’s about trying to become the first person to put together a perfect bracket. For others, it’s all about the plethora of betting options. And who doesn’t love a good upset?
When most people think of March Madness upsets, they often think of the shocking ones in the Round of 64: No. 16 UMBC beating No. 1 Virginia in 2018 and No. 16 Fairleigh Dickinson beating No. 1 Purdue in 2023.
Thanks to the single-elimination tournament, there are still plenty of upsets in the later rounds.
In some cases, underdogs string together multiple wins en route to an improbable Final Four.
While there have been more than 60 No. 1 seeds that have reached the Final Four since 1985 (the modern bracket era), there’s also been a good number of lower-ranked teams that have ripped off unlikely runs.
With NC State making the Final Four in 2024, there have been 18 teams that were a No. 7 seed or lower reaching the Final Four. Two of those teams ultimately won it all.
Prior to NC State, here’s a look at some of the biggest surprise teams that made the Final Four.
No. 8 Villanova (1985)
The lowest-seeded team to ever win March Madness, the Villanova Wildcats pulled off one of the biggest upsets in sports history when they beat No. 1 Georgetown in the 1985 National Championship Game. The Wildcats’ upset has long been called “The Perfect Game” since they shot 78.6% from the field, including 90% in the second half.
Still, Villanova was only an eight-point underdog, so Vegas knew a close game was possible.
The Wildcats defeated No. 1 seed Michigan in the Second Round before upsetting No. 5 seed Maryland in the Sweet Sixteen, No. 2 seed South Carolina in the Elite Eight and No. 2 seed Memphis State in the Final Four, so they already had tons of momentum before taking down Georgetown in the National Championship.
No. 7 UConn (2014)
The second-lowest seed to win it all, the UConn Huskies made a habit of recording upsets on their way to a National Championship. After beating No. 10 seed St. Joseph’s in overtime in the Round of 64, the Huskies earned their first upset of the tournament by beating No. 2 seed Villanova in the Round of 32.
From there, victories over No. 3 Iowa State in the Sweet Sixteen, No. 4 seed Michigan State in the Elite Eight, No. 1 seed Florida in the Final Four and No. 8 seed Kentucky in the National Championship followed.
Neither finalist was in the 2013 NCAA Tournament (Kentucky was in the NIT while UConn was serving a postseason suspension), marking the first time neither finalist was in the previous year’s tournament.
The title game also featured the highest combined seeds in National Championship history. It was only the third National Championship Game ever not to feature a top-3 seed.
The Huskies opened the tournament with 100/1 odds to win it all at BetMGM. They became the first No. 7 seed to win the National Championship.
No. 6 North Carolina State (1983)
While the NC State Wolfpack had wins over lower-seeded Pepperdine and Utah in their run to the 1983 NCAA Tournament, they also had to pick up wins over No. 3 seed UNLV (Second Round), No. 1 Virginia (Elite Eight), No. 4 Georgia (Final Four) and No. 1 Houston (National Championship).
The win over the Cougars stands alone, as “Phi Slamma Jamma” had won 26 straight games and had future NBA stars Clyde Drexler and Hakeem Olajuwon. But the Wolfpack, who entered as 7.5-point underdogs on the spread, put together a strong second half and won on a buzzer-beating dunk from Lorenzo Charles.
Can NC State continue its magical run in 2024?
Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images
