Caitlin Clark’s last dance is here.
After 133 games, 520 3-pointers and more than 3,700 points, Clark’s final NCAA Tournament begins Saturday when her Iowa Hawkeyes take on either UT Martin or Holy Cross in the Round of 64.
The Hawkeyes (29-4) enter the tournament as the No. 2 team in the country after winning the Big Ten Tournament, which helped them earn a No. 1 seed.
They’re on the other side of the bracket from top-seeded South Carolina, so Clark could face the undefeated Gamecocks in the National Championship.
Who Will Iowa Play in the NCAA Tournament?
Iowa will face Holy Cross or UT Martin in the Round of 64. The two teams will play in a First Four matchup on Thursday, with the winner moving on to battle the Hawkeyes on Saturday.
Iowa shouldn’t have much trouble against either team, considering No. 1 seeds are 115-1 all-time against No. 16 seeds in the women’s tournament.
After that, the Hawkeyes would face either No. 8 seed West Virginia or No. 9 seed Princeton in the Round of 32. If the higher seed wins in the other games in their region, then Iowa would face No. 4 seed Kansas State in the Sweet Sixteen.
If the Hawkeyes win that matchup, there’s a chance they could square off against LSU in the Elite Eight, which would be must-watch TV.
The two teams clashed in last year’s National Championship, with the Tigers winning 102-85 in a game that ended with LSU’s Angel Reese taunting Clark with her signature “you can’t see me gesture.”
Clark has never won a national title.
That said, the Tigers don’t have the easiest path, as they’ll likely need to go through No. 2 seed UCLA in the Sweet Sixteen. If Iowa wins in the Elite Eight, it will likely face off against either No. 1 seed USC or No. 2 seed Ohio State in the Final Four.
The Hawkeyes went 1-1 against the Buckeyes in conference play this season.
How Many Points Could Clark Finish Her Career With?
Clark, who entered the NCAA Tournament with 3,771 career points, could play six more games if Iowa makes it to the National Championship.
If that happens, Clark will likely finish her collegiate career with more than 3,900 points. She scored 191 points in the Hawkeyes’ six NCAA Tournament games last season, averaging 31.8 points per game. She’s averaging 31.9 points per game this season.
Her best game came when she had 41 points, 10 rebounds and 12 assists against Louisville, becoming the first player in women’s NCAA Tournament history to score at least 30 points in a triple-double.
Can Iowa Play South Carolina in the National Championship?
Yes, there’s a good chance. The Gamecocks (32-0) are the No. 1 overall seed and the No. 1 seed in Region 1, so the two teams could face off in the championship in Cleveland.
The last time they met on March 31, 2023, Clark dropped 41 points to help Iowa beat the previously undefeated South Carolina 77-73 in the Final Four.
While the Gamecocks lost five players to the WNBA Draft in the offseason (including Aliyah Boston, Clark’s soon-to-be teammate on the Indiana Fever), they’ve been the best team in college basketball this season.
Coach Dawn Staley has done a great job setting her roster up for success, as South Carolina has six players who average at least nine points per game.
The Gamecocks will likely have to go through Notre Dame (the No. 2 seed in their region) to get to the Final Four, where they’d probably face off against No. 1 seed Texas or No. 2 seed Stanford for a spot in the National Championship.
Iowa Hawkeyes National Title Odds
Clark and the Hawkeyes are between +550 (DraftKings) and +700 (FanDuel) to win the National Championship. Additionally, they’re around +100 to win their region at DraftKings.
They tend to have the second-shortest odds to win the title behind South Carolina. At most sportsbooks, the Gamecocks have minus-odds to win the title.
Bet365 is the only one of our favorite sportsbooks offering a futures bet on the exact National Championship matchup.
South Carolina is +500 to beat Iowa, while the Hawkeyes are +1200 to beat the Gamecocks. Iowa is +3500 to beat Stanford and +4500 to beat Texas.
FanDuel also lets bettors wager whether South Carolina or “The Field” will win the National Championship. The Gamecocks have -145 odds, while The Field has +115 odds.
If you bet on the field, your bet will win if any of the other 67 teams in the tournament (including Iowa) win it all. If you bet on South Carolina, your bet will hit if the Gamecocks cut the nets.
Photo by Matthew Holst/Getty Images
