Duke and North Carolina will add another chapter to their illustrious rivalry on Saturday when the Blue Devils host the Tar Heels in both team’s final regular season ACC game.
In the first matchup this season, the Tar Heels secured a nine-point victory on their home floor, posting 93 points on 50% shooting.
However, this game takes place at Cameron Indoor Stadium, one of the most challenging venues to play in college basketball. The stakes are higher than usual, as Duke has a chance to secure a partial share of the ACC regular season title, while North Carolina can win it outright with a win.
Here’s a look at the betting lines for this game, as well as which team we think will have the advantage.
Betting Preview
Game Details
- Matchup: North Carolina Tar Heels at Duke Blue Devils
- Date: Saturday, Mar. 9
- Time: 6:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Cameron Indoor Stadium (Durham, NC)
Odds Summary
- Moneyline: Tar Heels +148, Blue Devils -182
- Spread: Tar Heels +4.5 (-110), Blue Devils -4.5 (-110)
- Total: Over/Under 163 (-109/-112)
Spread odds from FanDuel Sportsbook; moneyline and total odds from BetRivers. Subject to change.
Moneyline
The Blue Devils enter the season as the No. 9 team in the country, which shouldn’t be a surprise, considering they’re returning their four best players from last year’s squad: Kyle Filipowski, Tyrese Proctor, Jeremy Roach, and Mark Mitchell.
Head coach Jon Scheyer also filled in some of the talent gaps by bringing in highly-touted freshmen, including five-star combo guard Jared McCain (No. 14 recruit per 247Sports) and four-star point guard Caleb Foster (No. 23 recruit per 247Sports).
Between them and super senior center Ryan Young, the Blue Devils have one of the most talented cores in college basketball.
The Blue Devils rank seventh in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency metric, tenth in top five-man lineups (starters) per EvanMiya, 13th in team three-point percentage, and 29th in turnovers per game.
Meanwhile, North Carolina has put together a solid bounce-back season after being the first team ever to be ranked first in the AP preseason poll and miss the NCAA Tournament.
Caleb Love transferring from the program to Arizona might have been best for both parties considering the Tar Heels still have two All-American-caliber players inArmando Bacot and R.J. Davis.
Hubert Davis also embraced the transfer portal, snagging Stanford standout Harrison Ingram and Notre Dame swingman Cormac Ryan.
North Carolina’s defense has been a strength this year, as the Tar Heels rank sixth in adjusted defensive efficiency, 12th in opponent effective field goal percentage, and 30th in opponent three-point percentage.
The Tar Heels are also one of the best rebounding teams in the country (third in the nation in defensive rebounding percentage), and opponents rarely get second-chance opportunities against them. UNC may not generate as many turnovers as other teams, but few can contest shots and secure misses like the Tar Heels.
Regardless, UNC faces an uphill battle in an arena where it has a 39-47 record. Couple that with the Blue Devils’ strong play as of late (they’ve won eight of their last nine) and we’re backing the Blue Devils at -182 on the moneyline.
Point Spread
The Duke Blue Devils enter as 4.5-point home favorites on the spread. Duke has an excellent 11-6 record against the spread at Cameron Indoor this season, but the Tar Heels have been just as good against the spread on the road. They’re 6-3 ATS as an away team this year.
As alluded to above, Duke has started to put all the pieces together.
They’re sixth in total rebounding rate and 28th in opponent effective field goal percentage in the past three games, per TeamRankings.
They’ve also held opponents to an astonishingly low 27% shooting from behind the arc over the last nine games.
The Tar Heels have been fantastic on the road all season, but this is a game that Duke should control from the opening tip. We’re backing the Blue Devils to cover the 4.5-point spread.
Over/Under
The Over/Under for this intense ACC rivalry game is 163.
The Blue Devils are 12-18 against the Over this season, while UNC boasts a13-16-1 Over record.
When these teams met in February, they combined for 177 points, which would easily clear the Over set for Saturday’s game. UNC might not be as much of an offensive powerhouse as Duke, but the Tar Heels play fast, ranking 42nd in adjusted tempo (per KenPom.)
The Blue Devils had no answer for Armando Bacot (25 points, 10 rebounds, and five assists) and Harrison Ingram (21 points and 13 rebounds) the first time around. R.J. Davis didn’t have his best game, and the Heels still scored 93 points.
Duke shouldn’t feel threatened by UNC’s pace of play because of its offensive weapons and home-court advantage.
Additionally, Duke ranks 29th in eFG% on its home floor and averages close to 83 points per game at home, so an increase in pace should lead to an offensive explosion.
With that in mind, we’re backing the Over.
Photo by Peyton Williams/UNC/Getty Images
