The NCAA Tournament is one of the biggest betting events of the year, rivaled only by the Super Bowl.
While it can be profitable for bettors, there are a few things to keep in mind before diving into betting at the best March Madness sportsbooks, many of which have highly-rated NCAA Tournament promotions for new players.
We’ve laid out our best tips for betting on the NCAA Tournament.
KenPom Ratings
There’s no denying the NCAA Tournament is crazy (it’s called March Madness for a reason). The tournament has earned that nickname recently, with the latest instance coming last year when No. 16 seed Fairleigh Dickinson defeated No. 1 seed Purdue in a historic upset.
Still, it’s worth remembering those upsets are statistical outliers.
KenPom Ratings are a great tool for evaluating March Madness matchups. They consider multiple advanced statistics, ranging from offensive and defensive efficiency, tempo, luck and strength of schedule inside and outside of the conference.
Even if you don’t typically bet by the numbers, KenPom’s rating system is useful for determining which teams are real contenders.
Since the KenPom era began in 2002, the 2014 UConn Huskies are the only national champion not to rank in the top 20 in adjusted offensive efficiency and the top 25 in adjusted defensive efficiency.
While betting underdogs can be fun on occasion, it’s not a consistent moneymaker. When it comes to betting on the champion, it’s smart to stick with efficient teams.
Do Extra Research
While it’s important to look at KenPom Ratings and other advanced statistics, they don’t tell the whole story.
Before placing March Madness bets, it’s worth looking at every angle ranging from each team’s head-to-head history to rebounding average. Gambling is hard, but research can help set bettors up for success.
The tournament bracket is revealed on a Sunday, which means there’s plenty of time to preview matchups and put in work. You can’t expect to throw darts and win all the time.
Start Times Are Important
Every detail matters when betting on the NCAA Tournament, and start times are a part of that. College athletes aren’t used to the quick turnaround times in the tournament, which can sometimes involve playing early in the morning.
Athletes are creatures of habit, and a change in routine can sometimes lead to lousy play. If a West Coast team has an 11 a.m. ET tip, that’s equivalent to an 8 a.m. PT tip. The same goes for East Coast programs that travel west and have a 9 p.m. PT start time.
Look for teams playing in or near their normal timezone facing programs out of their comfort zone.
Control Your Bankroll
Bankroll management is vital to successful sports betting. It’s hard to stay disciplined in sports betting, and it becomes even more complicated during the NCAA Tournament because of all the betting opportunities.
We recommend looking at the bracket ahead of time and picking the games you want to bet on. You should also note which games you want to live bet on.
Remember that you don’t need to bet on every game and that you should only wager what you can afford to lose. If you go into the tournament with that in mind, you’re more likely to have success.
Mid-Majors Shouldn’t Be Forgotten
Many bettors will look at the NCAA Tournament bracket and believe the ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Pac-12 and SEC have the best chance to win. While these teams typically have the most talent, it doesn’t mean they can’t lose to a mid-major program.
San Diego State is the most recent example of a mid-major program that danced its way to the National Championship. The Aztecs took down Kentucky and Michigan State en route to their National Championship appearance in 2023.
Their luck ended against UConn in the National Championship, but it was still a tremendous run. Florida Atlantic, who also made it to the Final Four, was another mid-major team that had success against Power Six opponents.
The Owls came back from a seven-point deficit with 12 minutes to go against Kansas State in the Elite Eight to punch their ticket to the Final Four. The Owls were a No. 9 seed but beat Tennessee and Kansas State to reach the National Semifinal.
Strength of Schedule Matters
The landscape of college basketball is vast, which means even the biggest college basketball fans don’t know everything about every team in the tournament. Research is critical, and one of the primary areas you should look at is strength of schedule.
While there are tools like KenPom Ratings that identify strength of schedule, a simple eye test can also work. For example, it’s worth trying to find a mid-major team that played a lot of Power Six schools in its out-of-conference schedule.
Strength of schedule is also critical for finding pretenders in the tournament. Many Power Six teams get lucky and don’t consistently win by significant margins, which is the first sign of a pretender.
If you identify a team that wins but doesn’t consistently cover the spread, they should be on your fade list.
Identify Cinderella Teams Early
The best part about March Madness is the Cinderella stories we see every season, as it seems like a low seed makes a deep run in the tournament almost every year.
The key characteristics of Cinderella teams are late-season results and consistency. The biggest sign of a Cinderella team is one that’s playing well entering the tournament and has been competitive all year.
Finding a Cinderella team early can be very lucrative, especially in the futures market. One of the most notable Cinderella teams of all time is the 2018 Loyola Chicago Ramblers.
The Ramblers were an excellent passing team that played great basketball, and they found their groove at the right time. They beat Miami, Tennessee, Nevada and Kansas State en route to the Final Four, where they finally lost to Michigan.
Every sportsbook lets you bet on which team will make the Final Four, so it’s worth examining that market ahead of the tournament to see if there are any potential Cinderella teams with long odds.
Look at End of Season Results
The college basketball season begins in the late fall and doesn’t end until April, so teams make a lot of adjustments over this span.
The 2022-23 UConn Huskies are the perfect example of why the end of a season is more important than the beginning. They went 2-6 in the Big East between Dec. 31, 2022, and Jan. 25, 2023, but then went 9-2 in their last 11 games before winning the NCAA Tournament.
UConn looked ugly at the beginning of conference play, but they figured it out and won a title. When breaking down teams, give more weight to recent results rather than what happened months ago.
Seek Out Live Betting Chances
College basketball is a game of momentum that can lead to big live-betting swings. While double-digit comebacks are rare, they still happen throughout the tournament.
If a heavy favorite starts poorly, the in-game odds will be more favorable compared to the pregame odds, offering more value if they come back and win.
You should always be watching the game when you place a live bet. If you’re just blindly picking lines that look good on a sportsbook, you’ll likely lose money in the long run.
When you’re watching the game, you have a better sense of how the game is progressing and whether a line has value.
Experience is Crucial
The NCAA Tournament is a high-pressure environment. For many players, it includes the biggest games of their lives.
Given the stakes, teams with players who have appeared in the tournament before could have an edge over less experienced teams. These players are human, after all, and their performance can be affected by the pressure.
For example, the 2007 Florida Gators won the National Championship after returning many of the same players that won the 2006 title. Having built-in chemistry and championship experience certainly helped.
On the other hand, inexperienced teams are riskier bets because they haven’t proven they can handle the intensity of March Madness. Make sure to consider experience level when placing your bets.
