Caitlin Clark and the Iowa Hawkeyes advanced to the Round of 32 of the women’s NCAA Tournament after resistance from Holy Cross in their 91-65 win in the Round of 64.
The Hawkeyes were able to create some separation in the second quarter and cruised the rest of the way. Clark had a strong showing, working through a slow start to finish with 27 points, 10 assists and eight rebounds in just 31 minutes.
On Monday, March 25, Iowa will face off against the West Virginia Mountaineers, who boast a 25-7 record and are coming off a win over Princeton. WVU’s JJ Quinerly went off against the Tigers, posting 29 points and seven rebounds on 52.6% shooting.
Now “Ponytail Pete” will battle Quinerly in a showdown between two of the most prolific scorers in the country. With that in mind, let’s take a look at Clark’s player props against the Mountaineers.
Caitlin Clark Player Props
Caitlin Clark O/U 31.5 Points (-120/-114) & O/U 9.5 Assists (-134/-106) – BetRivers
- Caitlin Clark’s points prop line is 31.5, which is in line with her season average of 31.8 points per game. Clark has eclipsed this line in three of her past eight games and nine of her past 16.
- The line for her assists is 9.5. Clark has recorded double-digit assists in three consecutive games and 10 of her past 13.
For the second straight year, Clark opened the NCAA Tournament with a strong performance as a passer, which was due in large part to the weaker opponent.
The Hawkeyes’ win over Holy Cross was never in doubt, so it was a solid opportunity for her to build up her teammates’ confidence for the rest of the tournament. She had 12 assists against Southeastern Louisiana in the Round of 64 in 2023.
Last year, Clark played in just 29 minutes in the Round of 64 against the Lady Lions before averaging 38 minutes per game the rest of the tournament.
That trend should continue this year because Iowa cannot afford to put her on the bench for more than one or two minutes.
Clark’s usage rate (40.4%) this season has jumped more than four percent, exemplifying her role as the catalyst of Iowa’s offense.
That said, this might not be the game where Clark explodes for 40 points.
West Virginia has a pesky, vigilant defense that has allowed the 36th-fewest points per game to opponents this season, along with allowing the fourth-fewest points per 100 possessions.
West Virginia also ranks third nationally in turnovers forced per game, behind only Niagara and Marshall, two mid-major programs that face inferior competition. The Mountaineers should keep pressure on Clark the entire game, whether it be via double-teams or full-court pressure.
Clark should not have trouble reaching double-digit assists because the Mountaineers will want to make any other Iowa player beat them. With that in mind, we’re backing the Over on Clark’s assists (9.5) and the Under on her points (31.5).
Caitlin Clark O/U 7.5 Rebounds (-134/-106) – BetRivers
- Caitlin Clark’s rebounding prop is 7.5, which is in line with her season average of 7.3 rebounds per game. Clark has pulled down eight or more rebounds in six outings in her past 10 games.
When thinking about Clark’s rebound prop, it’s important to remember that she only averages one offensive rebound per game, so almost all of her rebound production will come on the defensive end.
In this case, West Virginia ranks 258th in the nation in offensive rebounding, which means Clark should have plenty of opportunities to pull down rebounds off Mountaineer misses.
While West Virginia has the 34th-highest field goal percentage in the country (45%), it ranks just 107th in three-point percentage (32.45%).
Even with that low shooting percentage, the Mountaineers still shoot an average of 21.3 3-pointers per game, so there could be plenty of long rebounds for Clark to grab.
Still, Clark’s rebounding prop is not where we believe there is value.
While we would tend to lean the Over on her rebounding line in this game due to the pace of play, West Virginia’s weakness on the offensive glass and the Mountaineers’ shot selection, the Over has odds of -134, which are too juiced for us.
We suggest sticking to Clark’s points and assists props in this game.
Photo by Keith Gillett/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
