March Madness Buzzer-Beaters: History & Betting Guide

There have been a number of buzzer-beaters in the NCAA tournament over the years. But before we dive into that history, we need to explain a buzzer-beater.

What Counts as a March Madness Buzzer-Beater?

We’ll define a buzzer-beater as a game-winning shot that goes through the hoop as time expires in regulation. After the ball goes in, there is no time left for the opposing team to inbound.

It does not matter whether the game is tied or one team has a lead when the shot occurs.

As long as it gives one team the lead and occurs at the end of the game without any time remaining, it counts as a buzzer-beater.

If there is any time left on the clock after the ball goes in, even if it’s 0.1 seconds, the shot isn’t a buzzer-beater.

A buzzer-beater can be any kind of shot: a free throw, a 2-pointer or a 3-pointer. It can also be from any distance.

Now that we’ve explained what a buzzer-beater is, let’s see how common they are.

How Many Buzzer-Beaters in March Madness History?

According to College Basketball-Reference, there have been 46 buzzer-beaters (per our definition) in 85 NCAA tournaments since the first tournament in 1939.

The first buzzer-beater was in 1956 by Larry Blades, who sealed Dartmouth’s 61-59 first-round victory over West Virginia with a clutch 2-pointer.

Buzzer-beaters were relatively rare during the early years of the NCAA tournament.

The first 17 tournaments did not feature one, but they have become more common over time as the field has expanded, resulting in more games.

Certain rule changes have also likely increased the frequency of buzzer-beaters, such as the introduction of the shot clock in 1985 and the 3-point line in 1986.

For example, there were only five buzzer-beaters in the first 36 tournaments combined from 1939 to 1974. There have been 41 buzzer-beaters in the 49 tournaments since then – an average of nearly one per year.

Here’s a look at the buzzer-beaters by decade:

The NCAA tournament with the most buzzer-beaters is a tie between 1990 and 2016, both of which had four.

The record buzzer-beaters in a single round is two. That’s happened several times, most recently during the first round of the 2016 tournament.

With the increased frequency of buzzer-beaters, it’s now rare to go multiple years in a row without one. There hasn’t been a three-year stretch without a buzzer-beater since the 1970s, when the tournament went a full decade between buzzer-beaters (1965 to 1975).

March Madness Buzzer-Beaters by Round

Buzzer-beaters are more common in the earlier rounds of March Madness when there are more games. The Round of 64 has 32 games, for example, while the final three rounds have just seven games combined.

There are simply more chances for buzzer-beaters in earlier rounds. The deeper you get into the tournament, the less common they become.

Here’s a look at the number of buzzer-beaters by round, excluding the two that occurred in third-place games (which no longer exist):

As expected, the majority of buzzer-beaters have occurred in the first two rounds of the tournament, with a significant drop-off after the second round.

In the history of the tournament, there have been more buzzer-beaters in the second round (13) than in the following four rounds combined (12).

Buzzer-beaters can still happen in later rounds, especially since teams should be more evenly matched at that point after most of the Cinderella teams have been bounced.

March Madness Buzzer-Beaters by Shot Type

A buzzer-beater can be any type of shot, but some are more likely than others.

Free throws are a rare buzzer-beater, as it’s difficult to get fouled when time expires. Most times, the ball is already in the air by then as a player will release his shot before time runs out.

Accordingly, a buzzer-beater is more likely to be a 2-pointer or 3-pointer, as seen in this chart:

However, 3-pointer buzzer-beaters have become more common over time.

Since the NCAA adopted the 3-point line in 1986, 3-pointers have accounted for 13 of the 32 buzzer-beaters (40.6%) since then.

That trend has accelerated. Of the 15 buzzer-beaters since 2003, 10 were 3-pointers (66.7%).

There are a few reasons. One is that the 3-pointer has become much more prevalent in the NCAA in recent years as teams have become more aware of its value, mirroring the same trend in the NBA. Teams are shooting more 3-pointers, so there are more 3-point buzzer-beaters.

The 3-point line also makes a buzzer-beater more attainable. Before it was introduced, it was nearly impossible to win a game with a buzzer-beater if you trailed by more than two points, as your only hope was getting fouled on a made 2-pointer.

Now, it’s easier to win if you’re trailing by two points at the end of the game, as you don’t need to draw a foul and can simply hit a three.

A 3-pointer is also usually a quicker shot at the end of the game, regardless of the score.

If you’re inbounding the ball from under your own basket, it’s much easier to chuck up a deep 3-pointer than advancing it down the court with passes and dribbles, both of which take precious time off the clock.

If you’re in a situation where you need points and only have a second or two to shoot the ball, you’re more likely to take that shot from beyond the 3-point line, which accounts for more space on the floor.

A player needs to be within 22 feet and 1 ¾ inches of the basket to make a 2-pointer, whereas the remaining 71 feet and 10 ¼ inches are 3-point territory.

When Was the Last March Madness Buzzer-Beater?

The most recent buzzer-beater was in the 2023 NCAA tournament in the national semifinal.

With No. 5 San Diego State trailing No. 9 Florida Atlantic 71-70, SDSU’s Lamont Butler dribbled the clock down to one second before releasing his 17-foot jump shot.

The ball swished through the net after the final horn blared, giving the Aztecs a thrilling 72-71 victory and sending them to the title game against UConn (which UConn won)

Butler’s shot was the first buzzer-beater in the men’s Final Four by a team that was trailing, making his bucket even more dramatic.

Longest March Madness Buzzer-Beater

College Basketball Reference also tracks the distance of buzzer-beaters, measuring the distance from the basket to where the ball was shot on the court.

This data isn’t available for every buzzer-beater, specifically some of the earlier ones.

CBB has distances for 43 of 46 buzzer-beaters, with no data from 1961, 1965 and 1975.

Based on CBB’s data, the longest recorded buzzer-beater was a 50-footer by Northern Iowa’s Paul Jesperson in 2016. His heave occurred in the first round with the score tied at 72-72 against Texas in the Round of 64.

With 2.7 seconds left, Jesperson received the inbound pass and dribbled towards midcourt.

He released the ball from the half-court line with a little over one second left. The ball banked off the backboard and went in after time expired, giving the Panthers a historic victory

Jesperson’s shot beat the record by one foot. The previous mark was held by Arkansas’ U.S. Reed, who beat Louisville with a 49-foot bomb in the second round of the 1981 tournament. That was before the 3-point line, so Reed’s shot only counted as two points.

Given the increased reliance on 3-pointers, many recent buzzer-beaters have come from considerable distances. Butler’s 17-footer in 2023 was the shortest buzzer-beater since 2016, and 10 of the last 15 buzzer-beaters have come from at least 20 feet out.

Has There Been a Buzzer-Beater in the NCAA Championship Game?

There have been two buzzer-beaters in the NCAA Championship Game.

The first occurred in 1963 during the championship game between Loyola (IL) and Cincinnati.

Cincinnati was shooting for its third straight national title, but lost in heartbreaking fashion on Vic Rouse’s tip-in as time expired in overtime, giving Loyola a 60-58 victory. Neither team has won a national championship since.

The other instance occurred in 2016 when Villanova edged UNC, 77-74. With the score tied at 74-74, Kris Jenkins drilled a 25-foot 3-pointer at the end of the game to give Villanova its first NCAA tournament title since 1985.

Sportsbooks often include buzzer-beater wagers under their March Madness prop bets.

For example, DraftKings Sportsbook offered multiple betting markets on buzzer-beaters for the 2023 tournament, including wagers on whether a buzzer-beater would occur in a specific round.

You could also bet on whether a buzzer-beater would occur at any point in the tournament.

However, you can’t bet on buzzer-beaters in all states, even ones where sports betting is legal. Some states place restrictions on college sports bets, specifically college sports prop bets.

Make sure to check your state’s rules. If you don’t see buzzer-beater props at any online sportsbooks in your state, they may not be allowed.

The odds and markets for March Madness buzzer-beaters will likely vary by sportsbook, so make sure to compare across sportsbooks before placing your wagers.

Here’s an example from DraftKings for the 2023 NCAA tournament for reference:

• Buzzer-beater in “First Four” round: +2000
• Buzzer-beater in First round: +300
• Buzzer-beater in NCAA tournament: +105
• Buzzer-beater on Day 1 of round of 64: +600
• Buzzer-beater on Day 2 of round of 64: +600

The odds for a buzzer-beater occurring at any point in the tournament were close to even at +105. Since there was a buzzer-beater in the tournament, anyone who wagered on that won 1.05 units for every unit wagered (so $105 in profits on a $100 bet).

However, since the buzzer-beater didn’t occur until the Final Four, everyone who wagered on a buzzer-beater to happen during the earlier rounds of the tournament would have lost.

Since betting on a specific round or day of a round is riskier, those markets come with longer odds and higher potential payouts.

Buzzer-beaters are random, but they still happen fairly regularly. They also come with plus odds, so are they worth betting on?

It depends what market you wager on, as some are better than others.

Wagering on a buzzer-beater to happen at any point in the tournament is the safest option. In the 24 tournaments from 2000 to 2024, 13 (54.2%) have had at least one buzzer-beater.

Based on implied probability, the odds for something that happens 54.2% of the time should be around -118. So if you see plus odds for a buzzer-beater, it’s worth the risk based on recent trends.

If you want to wager on the specific round that a buzzer-beater will occur, the first round is a reasonable bet. DraftKings had this at +300 odds in 2023 – an implied probability of 25%.

Seven of the last 26 tournaments have had a buzzer-beater in the first round (27%), making this a viable wager. It’s still risky, however, as there hasn’t been a first-round buzzer-beater in any of the last seven tournaments.

Given the first-round trend, it would also be viable to wager on a buzzer-beater occurring on either Day 1 or Day 2. You could place a wager on both days and if only one of them hits, you’d still profit thanks to the 6/1 odds at DraftKings.

For example, if you placed a $10 wager on Day 1 and a $10 wager on Day 2, you’d receive a $70 payout ($10 stake plus $60 winnings) if one of those days had a buzzer-beater, which would net you a $50 total profit ($70 payout minus $20 stake).

Make sure to compare the odds to the expected probability to see if they align before placing your bets. Based on recent data and DraftKings’ 2023 odds, however, buzzer-beater wagers appear to be viable bets with reasonable risk-to-payout ratios.

Photo by Jamie Schwaberow/NCAA Photos via Getty Images