The UConn Huskies entered the 2024 NCAA Men’s Tournament with the shortest odds to win the championship (+370) at FanDuel Sportsbook. The oddsmakers were correct, as UConn ended up going all the way.
Despite being the top-ranked team, the defending champions opened as significant underdogs against a field that consists of 67 other teams.
It’s rare for a men’s team to enter the tournament as a minus-odds favorite against the field. The tournament is chaotic and full of upsets, especially over the past decade.
In this article, we’ll look at some of the biggest pre-tournament favorites in history.
Biggest March Madness Favorite Since 1985
Since the modern NCAA Tournament began in 1985, the 1991 UNLV Runnin’ Rebels had the shortest pre-tournament odds at around -160 to win the National Championship.
The odds varied based on the Las Vegas sportsbook.
That’s the only time since 1985 a team entered the tournament with negative odds to win it all.
UNLV didn’t win the championship that year, but the odds were justified. Not only were they defending champions, they also entered the tournament with a 30-0 record and were in the midst of what became a 45-game winning streak.
This tournament meant even more to UNLV, as the program had already been banned from the 1992 NCAA Tournament for violating numerous NCAA regulations.
Led by future NBA players Larry Johnson, Stacey Augmon and Greg Anthony, the Rebels breezed through the tournament’s first four rounds, winning each game by at least eight points.
Their luck turned in the Final Four, as Coach K and the No. 2 seed Duke Blue Devils sent the Runnin’ Rebels packing with a 79-77 upset.
Duke went on to win the championship, taking down Kansas in the title game.
Other March Madness Betting Favorites
Per sportsoddshistory.com, only five teams since 1985 have entered the NCAA Tournament with championship odds of +190 or shorter:
- 1996: Kentucky (+140, won National Championship)
- 1999: Duke (+160, lost to UConn in National Championship)
- 2010: Kansas (+170, lost to Duke in Round of 32)
- 2012: Kentucky (+185, won National Championship)
- 2015: Kentucky (+110, lost to Duke in Final Four)
As you can see, the results are mixed regarding significant favorites winning it all.
Kentucky has been a relatively significant favorite three times (still an underdog against the field) and won two of those times. In 1996, the Wildcats were nicknamed “The Untouchables” and tore through the NCAA Tournament, winning all six of their games by at least seven points.
They again cruised in 2012, winning all their games by at least eight points with a core led by Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Anthony Davis. Kentucky stumbled in 2015, however, falling in the Final Four despite entering the tournament 34-0.
Duke was favored in 1999 and nearly went all the way, losing to UConn in the National Championship. The Huskies entered the tournament with the second-best odds to win, so at least the Blue Devils lost to a legitimate contender.
Kansas had the worst showing in this group, falling to Duke in the Round of 32 in 2010. The Blue Devils went on to finish the job, proving to be a team of destiny that year.
How Often Does the Favorite Win March Madness?
The team with the best pre-tournament odds has won 14 times in 39 tournaments since 1985 (35.9%).
- 1992: Duke (+300)
- 1993: North Carolina (+450)
- 1995: UCLA (+400)
- 1996: Kentucky (+140)
- 2000: Michigan State (+400)
- 2001: Duke (+250)
- 2005: North Carolina (+350)
- 2007: Florida (+400)
- 2009: North Carolina (+400)
- 2012: Kentucky (+185)
- 2013: Louisville (+450)
- 2017: North Carolina (+535)
- 2018: Villanova (+570)
- 2024: UConn (+370)
In that same period, the same number of teams with +800 odds or longer have won the tournament (14). Those odds might sound long, but against the field they aren’t.
March Madness is unpredictable. While favorites have a good chance to win, they are not locks and are likelier to fall short than cut down the nets.
Photo by John W. McDonough /Sports Illustrated via Getty Images
