After three weeks of mayhem, the 2024 Men’s NCAA Tournament ends Monday night with a heavyweight title fight between the two best teams in the country.
For the first time since 2017, two No. 1 seeds will battle for the national championship. That guarantees a No. 1 seed champion for the 25th time in 39 tournaments since the field expanded to 64 teams in 1985.
After winning it all last year, the UConn Huskies are back to defend their title. The Huskies have even more talent this time around and are looking to become the first back-to-back champions since the 2006-07 Florida Gators.
The only team standing in their way is the Purdue Boilermakers, who are searching for their first national title in program history. This is only the second National Championship appearance for the Boilermakers, who haven’t been on this stage since 1969.
By comparison, UConn is shooting for its sixth championship. If the Huskies win, they’ll tie North Carolina for the third-most titles in NCAA Tournament history.
With such a close matchup, March Madness bettors should consider several angles before wagering on the championship game. Here’s a look at the odds, lines and trends heading into tonight’s showdown.
Note: Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. Subject to change.
Purdue Boilermakers (1) vs. UConn Huskies (1)
- Date: Monday, April 8
- Time: 9:20 p.m. ET
- Location: State Farm Stadium (Glendale, AZ)
Odds Summary
- Moneyline: Purdue +245, UConn -305
- Spread: Purdue +7 (-112), UConn -7 (-108)
- Total: Over/Under 145.5 (-108/-112)
Both teams cruised into the National Championship after winning their Final Four games by double-digit points.
Purdue ended NC State’s Cinderella run with a 63-50 victory. The Boilermakers struggled shooting the ball at 40% overall, but hit 40% of their 3-pointers and and clamped down defensively, holding the Wolfpack to 36.8% shooting from the floor and just 26.3% from downtown.
UConn vs. Alabama featured much more offense with 158 total points. The game was close until the Huskies pulled away late, finishing strong to earn an 86-72 win. Five players scored in double digits for the reigning champs, highlighting their impressive depth.
UConn’s offense has been firing on all cylinders, scoring at least 75 points in every game of the tournament. The Huskies rank first in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency, so slowing them down will be critical for Purdue. UConn is 34-0 when it scores at least 67 points this year.
The Boilermakers rank third in offensive efficiency, so they’re capable of keeping pace. The Huskies need to find an answer to 7-foot-4 center Zach Edey, who’s tallied at least 20 points and 12 rebounds in every game of the tournament and just won AP Player of the Year for the second straight season.
This game should feature plenty of defense as well. Both teams rank top-12 in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency, so baskets may be difficult to come by at times.
UConn enters this game as a 3/1 favorite on the moneyline and a 7-point favorite on the spread. With their championship pedigree, superior depth and slight advantages on offense and defense, the Huskies are the better team and should win outright.
UConn shouldn’t have much issue covering the spread either. The Huskies have won all 11 of their NCAA Tournament games by double digits since last year. They’re also 27-12 against the spread this year, including 9-1 in their last 10 games.
Taking the points with Purdue is tempting, but it’s harder to trust the Boilermakers here. Their offense has been erratic in the tournament, ranging between 63 and 106 points. Their point total has also gone down in three straight games, which is a concerning trend heading into this matchup.
Edey should help Purdue hang around for a while, but UConn’s edges in depth and experience should ultimately help the defending champs pull away.
As for the total, the trends say to bet the Under. The Under has hit in nine of their 10 tournament games so far, and the Boilermakers are coming off their lowest-scoring output of the tournament. Meanwhile, the Under is 9-1 in the Huskies’ last 10 games.
Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images
