If you flipped a coin for every game in the NCAA Men’s Division I College Basketball Tournament the odds of a perfect bracket are astronomical.
It would be about 1 in 9.2 quintillion.
We’ll spare you having to read all those zeros.
However, no one should fill out a bracket blindly—unless you’re trying to complete some mandatory “fun” at your workplace and don’t care enough to look at the seeds.
According to the NCAA, the odds of a perfect bracket increase, in theory, to about 1 in 120 billion if you apply logic. That includes picking favorites. The closest known attempt was a bracket that remained perfect through the first 49 games in 2019.
It was a remarkable bracket, but it was still light years away from perfection.
How Many Brackets Are Filled Out?
According to the American Gaming Association, as many as 100 million March Madness brackets are filled out yearly.
That’s one bracket for about 30% of the population. March Madness is popular, but it isn’t that popular. The figure includes people who fill out multiple brackets.
The AGA estimates that about 56 million people participate in bracket contests.
That’s still a lot of brackets, and 1 in 120 billion isn’t impossible.
Will There Ever Be a Perfect March Madness Bracket?
You might now wonder: how many years of 100 million brackets would it theoretically take to see a perfect bracket?
It’s OK if you weren’t, as the planet might not even be habitable for humans by the time we might see proof of a perfect bracket.
We estimate it would take about 1,200 years to see it. The theory here is simple. You divide 120 billion by 100 million and get 1,200.
We’re assuming no increase in the number of brackets each year. The U.S. population is flat-lining. Maybe it’s partially because our bodies are full of microplastics.
We can’t stress enough how this is theory. It could take far longer to see a perfect bracket.
Of course, we’d bet that there’s no NCAA Men’s Division I College Basketball Tournament in 1,200 years, so this hypothetical is irrelevant.
In other words, there will almost surely never be a perfect bracket.
You can apply your own predictions to the future of civilization to come up with dystopian or utopian reasons why there’s no March Madness in the future.
Photo by Cliff Grassmick/Digital First Media/Boulder Daily Camera via Getty Images
