March Madness has reached its final round.
Monday night’s 2023 NCAA Men’s Tournament Championship Game will bestow the honor of everlasting victory upon the University of Connecticut Huskies or the San Diego State University Aztecs.
The Huskies head into the matchup as a sizable favorite on the back of their raging stampede through the March Madness bracket. The Aztecs, by comparison, managed just one win by more than seven points during their run to the championship game.
It will take 40 minutes to decide which team is the best in college basketball for 2023 and cement them into permanent lore. It’s time for the March Madness finale.
National Championship Spread, Moneyline & Total
- Spread: UConn -7.5 (-110), SDSU +7.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: UConn -365, SDSU +300
- Total: Over/Under 132.5 Points (-110/-110)
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. Subject to change.
UConn Overview
UConn has been severely underrated since it was named a No. 4 seed on Selection Sunday. Basketball statistics site KenPom, a recommended tool for predicting March Madness champions, ranked the school as having the best overall program in the nation. ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI) had the Huskies earmarked as the third-best team in the country, behind only Houston and Alabama, both of which were one-seeds.
The biggest knock against UConn was its regular-season record of 25-8. It went on a terrible midseason streak where it suffered six losses in eight games before eventually righting the ship in time for the tournament. They spent most of March 16—the first day of the Round of 64—hovering around +1700 betting odds to win the tournament.
The Huskies have been on their game from the start. They kicked off their run to the final with a 24-point win over No. 13 Iona (87-63) and doubled back with a 70-55 win over No. 5 Saint Mary’s two days later. Unfortunately for their next opponents, the shrinking margin of victory trend wouldn’t stick.
The Huskies tore No. 8 Arkansas to pieces in the Sweet 16 (88-65) and outclassed No. 3 Gonzaga in the Elite Eight (82-54). The most impressive part of the second result was their performance in the second half, which they won 43-22.
A close tournament encounter came against No. 5 Miami in the Final Four, though that was still a 13-point Huskies win (72-59). The Hurricanes made a couple of attempts to keep the game within reach but could not break down UConn’s stifling defense and ended the game shooting a lowly 32.3% from the field.
UConn Key Players
Adama Sanogo is the man in the middle for the Huskies and the one to watch. His brute size and force make him a nightmare matchup, and he has a surprisingly soft touch around the rim. He averages 17.2 points and 7.6 rebounds and just put up 21 points and 10 rebounds in the Final Four. Six of the points came on back-to-back three-pointers in the opening three minutes, setting the tone for how the evening would go.
UConn’s 6-foot-5 guard Jordan Hawkins is Sanogo’s primary running mate. He averages 16.2 points, shoots the ball at a 38.6% clip from beyond the arc and can get his shot off quickly. Nahiem Alleyne has also been an important contributor off the bench, and UConn is 14-1 when he scores at least 8 points (he’s averaging 7.4 in the tournament).
San Diego State Overview
SDSU entered the tournament as a solid all-around team that excelled on defense. It has held to that moniker more times than not but has shown a recent proficiency on offense that, if carried into Monday’s title game, could be the difference.
The Aztecs, who hail from the often-overlooked Mountain West Conference, were also looked upon favorably by composite rankings, albeit not to the extent of UConn. The Aztecs checked in at 14th on KenPom and 15th in the BPI.
One of SDSU’s key characteristics is consistency. It only lost back-to-back games once this season—both to ranked opponents during the first three weeks of the season. It has won nine games in a row and 28 of its last 32.
Both troublingly and impressively, those wins have come in lieu of an overpowering offense. The Aztecs ranked 67th in offensive rating and are averaging just 67.6 points per game in the tournament. UConn, on the other hand, ranked eighth and is averaging 79.8 PPG in March Madness.
SDSU kicked its tournament campaign off with a 63-57 win over a tricky No. 12 College of Charleston that shot more threes per game than all but two Division I schools. It bounced back with its one blowout of the bracket, a 75-52 win over No. 13 Furman.
The Aztecs made their first resounding impression of the tournament in the Sweet 16 when they eliminated betting favorite No. 1 Alabama behind a stifling defensive performance (71-64). They then used a last-second free throw from Darrion Trammell to sneak past No. 6 Creighton (57-56) and book a ticket in their first Final Four in program history.
Waiting for them in the Final Four was No. 9 Florida Atlantic, a team also enjoying its first deep tournament run. The Aztecs trailed by as many as 14 points with 14 minutes left in the second half but used one of their best shooting displays of the season to storm back. Lamont Butler became the hero when he drilled a go-ahead mid-range shot as time expired, propelling his team to the championship.
SDSU Key Players
Matt Bradley (12.7 PPG, 3.8 RPG) is SDSU’s leading scorer and the only player on the roster averaging more than 10 points per night. He had scored just eight points in the previous two rounds combined before erupting for 21 in the FAU game.
The next five players on SDSU’s team all average at least 7.5 points, which gives them decent balance even if they don’t have consistent takeover scorers. Jaedon LeDee, Keshad Johnson and Nathan Mensah patrol the paint while the perimeter players hound opponents, holding them to 28.2% shooting from outside—the third-best mark in college basketball.
March Madness National Championship Best Bet
UConn enjoys a majority of the statistical advantages on paper. The Huskies also perform well in categories that are crucial to postseason success, including offensive rebounds per game (13.1 – 11th), assist-to-turnover ratio (1.4 – 31st) and free throw percentage (75.6% – 42nd).
SDSU doesn’t have the same appeal but has an identity it sticks to. It has been able to impose its physical will against all its opponents thus far and has shown championship grit in recent games against Alabama, Creighton and FAU. Part of that grit has been the ability to make key clutch shots, which is not a quality directly associated with the team’s regular shooting splits.
The Aztecs also made nine of 18 three-pointers in their last game just 48 hours before the championship. Assuming they did not lose their touch that quickly, they will be able to make it tough on the Huskies.
With that said, UConn is the better team from top to bottom. The Huskies are more versatile, have better stars and picked up more momentum on both sides of the ball than SDSU. Expect them to be challenged in spots but to overwhelm the Aztecs en route to a fifth NCAA Tournament title.
Best Bet: UConn -7.5 (-110)
