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The No. 11 seed NC State Wolfpack made the 2024 Men’s NCAA Tournament Final Four, upsetting multiple teams along the way.
With its 76-64 win over Duke in the Elite Eight, the Wolfpack became the 15th team seeded eighth or lower to make the Final Four since 1985, when the tournament extended to 64 teams (it moved to 68 teams in 2011 with the addition of the First Four).
Although NC State lost to Purdue in the Final Four, its wild run through the NCAA Tournament showcased the unpredictability of the 68-team event and how hard it is to pick a perfect bracket.
Lowest Seed NCAA Tournament Winner
The lowest-seeded team to ever win March Madness was No. 8 Villanova in 1985. The Wildcats defeated No. 1 Georgetown 66-64 in one of the biggest upsets in March Madness history.
In the 39 NCAA tournaments held since 1985 (there was no tournament in 2020 due to Covid-19), 18 teams that were a No. 7 seed or lower have made it to the Final Four.
Of those teams, five ended up making it to the national championship. The aforementioned Wildcats and 2014 UConn (a No. 7 seed) are the only teams to win a title.
Three No. 8 seeds have reached the title game since Villanova’s victory in 1985, but none have reached the top of the mountain. Those teams were Butler in 2011, Kentucky in 2014 and North Carolina in 2022.
No team lower than an eight-seed has reached the championship since 1985, let alone won it.
The lowest seed to reach the Final Four was a No. 11 seed, which has happened six times. However, those teams are 0-6 in the Final Four.
Had NC State reached the national championship game in 2024, it would have become the lowest seed to play in a championship game.
Why Don’t Low Seeds Win More?
While there have been more upsets in recent NCAA tournaments, No. 1 seeds have won 25 of the last 39 national championships, one of the biggest reasons why a No. 9 seed or lower has never won an NCAA tournament.
The farther an underdog gets in the tournament, the higher the chances they’ll run into a team that’s just as hot as them, more talented, or both.
For example, take a look at some of the Cinderella teams over the last six NCAA tournaments:
It’s hard to pick up one upset in March Madness, let alone the six in a row needed to win it all.
Accordingly, betting on a low seed to win the tournament is unlikely to pay off.
Should You Bet Underdogs to Win March Madness?
Generally, betting on lower seeds and underdogs is not a good strategy.
Better seeds tend to go deeper in the tournament because they are superior teams with more talented players and coaches. They also have easier matchups against weaker opponents.
Lower seeds will be betting underdogs for a reason. They’ll have longer odds and more attractive payouts but are less likely to advance.
Backing underdogs can be tempting during March Madness, especially when they have large plus odds, but the risk may not be worth the reward. The track record of success for lower seeds is extremely limited.
Only five of the last 39 champions (12.8%) weren’t top-3 seeds, and no team below a No. 8 seed has ever won. No team below a No. 11 seed has made the Final Four.
That might change, but remember these trends when placing March Madness bets.
Photo by Richard Mackson/Sports Illustrated via Getty Images
