The women’s Final Four is here, and it features no shortage of stars and storylines.
On one side of the bracket, there’s the historic 36-0 South Carolina Gamecocks taking on the NC State Wolfpack, who defeated a No. 1 and No. 2 seed in their run to the Final Four.
On the other side, there’s Caitlin Clark and Iowa facing Paige Bueckers and UConn in a showdown between two of the best players in women’s basketball.
These four teams will square off in Cleveland on Friday, April 5, with the two winners advancing to the National Championship Game on Sunday, April 7.
Here’s a look at the odds and lines for each of the women’s Final Four games.
Odds from FanDuel Sportsbook. Subject to change.
NC State Wolfpack (3) vs. South Carolina Gamecocks (1)
- Date: Friday, April 5
- Time: 7 p.m. ET
- Location: Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse (Cleveland, Ohio)
Odds Summary
- Moneyline: NC State +610, South Carolina -1000
- Spread: NC State +11.5 (-108), South Carolina -11.5 (-112)
- Total: Over/Under 139.5 (-110/-110)
After taking down No. 2 Stanford in the Sweet 16 and No. 2 Texas in the Elite Eight, the Wolfpack are headed to the Final Four for the first time since 1998. Their path has been fairly easy thus far with three of their four wins coming by double digits.
Aziaha James has been the catalyst for NC State’s offense with 24.3 points per game in the tournament. She’s joined in the backcourt by talented guards Saniya Rivers and Zoe Brooks, both of whom have found new gears since the tournament started.
However, now they must go through the best team in women’s basketball. The Gamecocks are entering the Final Four undefeated for the second year in a row, and this year’s team might be even more talented.
While South Carolina doesn’t have a superstar like Clark or Bueckers, the Gamecocks have four players who average 10-plus points. That includes center Kamilla Cardoso (14.1 PPG), who will be a WNBA lottery pick later this month.
South Carolina also has tremendous depth, as nine players logged at least 10 minutes against Oregon State in the Elite Eight. The Gamecocks have had a different leading scorer in each game of the tournament and have yet to trail at any point.
That said, we like the Wolfpack to cover the double-digit spread here. While the Gamecocks defeated the Beavers by 12 points in the Elite Eight, they needed a late run to pull away.
The big key here will be NC State’s ability to knock down deep shots. The Wolfpack shot 50% from three against Texas (9-for-18) and 41% against Stanford (7-for-17), but they’ll be tested here against one of the best 3-point defenses in the country (26.9%).
South Carolina hasn’t looked its best over its past two games, so look for NC State to hang around in this game and cover the spread.
UConn Huskies (3) vs. Iowa Hawkeyes (1)
- Date: Friday, April 5
- Time: 9:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse (Cleveland, Ohio)
Odds Summary
- Moneyline: UConn +128, Iowa -158
- Spread: UConn +2.5 (-104), Iowa -2.5 (-118)
- Total: Over/Under 162.5 (-110/-110)
Caitlin Clark’s last dance will come to an end this weekend, but she’s going out with a bang. Clark dropped 41 points, 12 assists and nine 3-pointers against LSU on Monday in a historic performance.
Clark can do it all, and her teammates stepped up as well. Kate Martin scored 21 points and Sydney Affolter poured in 16, helping Clark take down the defending national champs.
The Hawkeyes will need to be in sync again if they want to get past the Huskies. Despite only having a seven-player rotation due to injuries, they outlasted USC 80-73 in the Elite Eight to reach the Final Four. Paige Bueckers led the way with 28 points, 10 rebounds and six assists.
Don’t let Clark overshadow how good Bueckers is. The former National Player of the Year has scored at least 20 points in seven straight games and has three double-doubles in UConn’s four tournament games so far.
Aaliyah Edwards (24 points against USC) is the Robin to Bueckers’ Batman, while Nika Muhl should shadow Clark all game.
This game has all the makings of an instant classic. Bueckers and Clark are both ball-dominant guards at the top of their game. Their supporting casts are talented but flawed, so this game will likely come down to which superstar has the better performance.
That said, we’re rolling with Clark and Co. to cover this small spread. Clark’s playmaking and Iowa’s 3-point shooting (37.8% this season, 41.9% against LSU) should be the difference.
Expect the Hawkeyes to attack inside early to try to get Edwards and her teammates in foul trouble.
Women’s NCAA Tournament Final Four History
Since the first women’s NCAA Tournament in 1982, the tournament has seen its fair share of chaos. Similar to the men’s tournament, the single-elimination format often results in upsets and unexpected outcomes that result in thousands of busted brackets.
Those upsets are more common in the earlier rounds of the tournament, but they can still happen in the later rounds as well. In fact, several lower seeds have advanced deep into the tournament, with some going as far as the Final Four.
While it’s tough to guess when a lower seed will get hot and go on a run, upsets can be profitable for sports bettors if they’re able to correctly identify underdogs.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at the history of the Final Four in the women’s NCAA tournament and see which teams have surpassed expectations.
Like the men’s tournament, lower seeds haven’t had much success in the women’s NCAA Tournament so far. Most of the tournaments have been fairly predictable in terms of top seeds beating lower seeds and historically successful programs dominating, so backing underdogs to win doesn’t seem to be a profitable betting strategy for the women’s tournament.
For example, no team lower than a No. 3 seed has won the tournament, and no team lower than a No. 5 seed has reached the championship round.
Some lower seeds have made it to the Final Four, but most of those instances occurred in the 1990s.
No. 9 Arkansas (1998)
The lowest seed to reach the Final Four was No. 9 seed Arkansas in 1998. The Razorbacks were the No. 9 seed in the West Region, becoming the first (and still the only) No. 9 seed to reach the Final Four.
They were the first unranked team to reach the women’s Final Four, making their Cinderella run even more special. They were also the lowest-ranked team in conference play to make the Final Four, tied for sixth in the SEC.
Despite its unimpressive regular season, Arkansas beat four conference champions and three ranked teams along the way, upsetting Duke 77-72 in the Elite Eight to clinch its spot in the Final Four.
Unfortunately for the Razorbacks, their run fell short against Tennessee. The Volunteers beat them 86-58, setting a winning margin record for the Final Four. Tennessee went on to win the national title and finish the season undefeated.
No. 8 Missouri State (1992)
Only one No. 8 seed has reached the Final Four – Missouri State in 1992. At the time, the Lady Bears were the lowest seed to make the Final Four.
While Missouri State lost to eventual champion Tennessee in the Final Four, one of the keys to the Lady Bears’ success was their full-court defense. It gave opponents fits and helped separate them from the pack, especially as a lower seed.
One strategy when picking a Cinderella team is targeting a team that does something particularly well, whether it’s rebounding, defense or 3-point shooting. An elite skill like that can take a team a long way in March Madness by giving them a critical edge, especially if other teams aren’t prepared for it.
No. 7 Minnesota (2004) and Washington (2016)
Two No. 7 seeds have made the Final Four, both fairly recently. Minnesota was the first in 2004, followed by Washington 12 years later.
Minnesota lost to UConn in 2004, but it was helped by the stellar rebounding of Janel McCarville. The 6-foot-2 center set a tournament record with 75 rebounds that lasted until 2018, averaging 15 boards per game.
In 2016, Washington was a surprising entrant in the Final Four after finishing the season fifth in the Pac-12. The Huskies got blown out by Syracuse in the Final Four but were led by prolific scorer Kelsey Plum, who finished her career with the most points in women’s Division I history (3,527) before Caitlin Clark passed her in 2024.
In both cases, each team had a transcendent superstar capable of putting the team on her back. It’s hard for one player to win a championship all by herself, but it’s possible for a star to win several games and help their team progress through the tournament.
Be on the lookout for star players on otherwise mediocre rosters, as these teams have the potential to make some noise in the tournament.
No. 6 Notre Dame (1997)
The only No. 6 seed to reach the Final Four was Notre Dame in 1997.
This marked the first Final Four appearance for Notre Dame in the women’s tournament, helping push the program into the national spotlight.
The Fighting Irish didn’t win that year, but they were on the upswing and won the championship in 2001. If you can identify an up-and-coming team with exciting young players or an energetic new coach, that can help scrappy teams last longer than expected.
Notre Dame wasn’t quite championship-caliber in 1997, but the Fighting Irish’s time was coming soon.
Photo by Greg Fiume/NCAA Photos via Getty Images
