The greatest basketball prospect this century and possibly of all time not going first in the NBA Draft?
According to DraftKings, a wagering platform operating in 19 sports betting states, some bettors are gambling on massive long shots to go ahead of Victor Wembanyama, a 7-foot-5 teenage phenom from France who has been called a potentially superior version of future NBA Hall of Famer Kevin Durant. LeBron James, previously regarded as the best-ever NBA Draft prospect, recently called Wembanyama an extra-terrestrial (an “alien” to be precise). James said he’s never seen anyone like him.
Wembanyama has long been the consensus top prospect in the 2023 draft. In late 2022, he was -2000 to be the first pick. Later he was -6000. As of March, his odds were a staggering -8000. DraftKings said that 70% of its handle for the draft has been on Wembanyama. We don’t have any additional data, but we can assume the bulk of that Wembanyama money came before he was -8000. Sharp bettors likely saw some value at -2000.
If you don’t know, here’s what those plus-minus odds mean: You’d have to risk $8,000 to win $100, though you can bet whatever amount you want. There are no locks in sports betting, but -8000 implies about as close a lock as you’ll find.
Let’s briefly switch sports for an example of a so-called lock losing. In 2022, the Minnesota Vikings pulled off the biggest comeback in NFL history against the Indianapolis Colts. The Colts were leading 33-0 at halftime, with betting sites posting in-game odds as lopsided as -20000. The Vikings won, devastating some bettors, according to media reports.
But here we are talking about the NBA Draft, an off-the-court event. Wembanyama could not dribble a ball in public again until the draft and it wouldn’t matter. What could stop him from going No. 1? Probably only severe injury or a catastrophic health issue like what Buffalo Bills safety Damar Hamlin suffered. Let’s knock on hardwood somewhere that doesn’t happen.
It’s been widely speculated that no NBA franchise would even for a second think about shocking the world and pass on Wembanyama in favor of another player. The NBA Draft Lottery determines who gets the top pick, with Wembanyama saying he doesn’t care where he goes.
If Not Wembanyama, Then Who?
Some sports bettors love long shots. The reasons are apparent. But while “betting a lot to win a little” can be a poor strategy, as with the aforementioned extraordinary NFL game, backing huge long shots is often just as misguided. Parlays are the classic example of long-shot bets that aren’t great for your long-term success betting on sports.
Every player listed in the NBA Draft betting market on DraftKings has seen money bet on them. As of March, the only other players with greater than 1% of the NBA Draft handle were:
- Scoot Henderson (+3000): 16.23%
- Brandon Miller (+20000): 4.33%
- Amen Thompson (+10000): 2.48%
- Emoni Bates (+30000): 1.81%
- Nick Smith Jr. (+15000): 1.47%
NBA mock drafts we’ve seen appear to agree there’s a big gap between Henderson and the rest of the field. Henderson has been compared to NBA greats Russell Westbrook and Chris Paul.
Is +3000 worth a flier on Henderson? You’d win $3,000 for every $100 bet. Almost surely not.
What about the other players? Winning $30,000 for every $100 staked is obviously an eye-popping return, but it’s hard to argue for such a risk.
Perhaps some NBA fans out there are planning something nefarious? In the 1996 comedy Celtic Pride, crazed Boston fans kidnapped a Utah Jazz player before a critical playoff game so their team could win. Is something like that in the works here? (We’re kidding.)
We don’t have a recommendation on whether you should bet on who will go No. 1 in the 2023 NBA Draft. However, if you must put money on it, the play still is Wembanyama. Don’t go for the long shots.
