NBA Draft Betting Odds, Tips & Strategies

The NBA Draft is an annual event where teams select the best prospects from college, overseas professional leagues, Overtime Elite and the G-League.

There are 60 picks in the NBA Draft, with each team receiving two based on how well (or poorly) they performed in the most recently completed season. Occasionally, there will be fewer than 60 picks if a team loses the right to a pick as punishment from the league for an infraction (i.e., tampering). In the NBA, tampering is the act of a team’s representatives communicating with players on rival teams to lure them into joining their team.

Picks 15-30 are determined by the reverse order of the playoff teams’ regular-season records so that the best regular-season team will get the 30th pick, the second-best regular-season team has the 29th pick, and so on.

The non-playoff teams (14) have a certain percentage assigned based on their overall record at the end of the season. For example, the three worst teams in the NBA during the regular season have an equal percent chance (14%) to secure the No. 1 pick in the NBA Draft.

The uncertainty of whether you will get the top pick helps reduce the likelihood of “tanking.” Tanking is when a team intentionally tries to lose to secure a higher draft pick.

Organizations can trade picks. The value of a pick can vary significantly based on the sending team’s expected performance during that year’s regular season. For instance, if Memphis sends a 2027 first-round draft pick to Dallas, the value of the pick is determined by the Grizzlies’ performance during the 2026-27 season. Trading draft picks, usually for other draft picks or established players, can be highly speculative.

The NBA Draft Lottery is a nationally televised event that determines the draft order for every team and usually takes place in the middle of May, roughly one month before the NBA Draft. Each team that did not make the playoffs sends a representative to the location where the NBA Draft Lottery is held (often not the same location as the NBA Draft), and the NBA Deputy Commissioner usually reads the results of the draft order.

The lottery process has changed several times since its inception in 1985. In previous years, a coin flip between the worst teams in their respective conferences was the determinant factor in which team would acquire the No. 1 overall pick. After that, the inverse order (second-worst team gets the second pick, and so on) was adopted. Just one year later, in 1986, the lottery set the order for the first three teams, and again, was followed in inverse order of regular season record.

The lottery continued to experience changes and refinements throughout the years, often due to expansion teams being added. There have been seven teams created since 1988: Charlotte Hornets (now New Orleans Pelicans), Miami Heat, Orlando Magic, Minnesota Timberwolves, Toronto Raptors, Vancouver (now Memphis) Grizzlies, and Charlotte Bobcats (now Charlotte Hornets.)

Now, the process ensures that the team with the worst record will get anything higher than the fifth pick overall. However, the odds for securing the top pick are much more level than they were in previous structures. These refinements have continued to incentivize teams to be at least somewhat competitive and not “tank” or put an intentionally poor team on the floor in an attempt to get the top pick in the following year’s draft.

The NFL still uses an inverse order for all teams, so the worst-performing team always gets a top pick. Regarding tanking, the NBA has done an objectively better job disincentivizing that behavior.

Below are the percentages for the teams that finish in the “lottery,” which consists of the teams that don’t make the playoffs, to land the No. 1 pick.

Odds of Landing No. 1 Pick

• (1) 30th-best team = 14%
• (2) 29th-best team = 14%
• (3) 28th-best team = 14%
• (4) 27th-best team = 12.5%
• (5) 26th-best team = 10.5%
• (6) 25th-best team = 9%
• (7) 24th-best team = 7.5%
• (8) 23rd-best team = 4.5%
• (9) 22nd-best team = 4.5%
• (10) 21st-best team = 4.5%
• (11) 20th-best team = 1.8%
• (12) 19th-best team = 1.7%
• (13) 18th-best team = 1%
• (14) 17th-best team = 0.5%

You can bet on the lottery results on most sportsbooks. The lines are often configured by taking a team’s odds to acquire the first pick and translating them into American odds form.

Most sportsbooks offer various NBA bet types to keep viewers engaged with the draft, even after the first few picks. You can still wager on the event after the top prospects are selected.

Available NBA Draft bet types vary based on sportsbook. Look at all of them to see which ones have the bets that are most attractive to you, such as:

• First, Second, Third, Fourth, Fifth Overall Pick Odds
• X Player’s Draft Position: Over/Under Y Pick.
• Which Player Gets Drafted First: X or Y Player.
• Exact Order – Top Three Picks
• Will X Player Be Drafted in the Top Ten: Yes/No

Hypotheticals with names and odds:

• Victor Wembanyama First Overall Pick (-2000)
• Scoot Henderson’s Draft Position: Over 2.5 (+450) or Under 2.5 (-800)
• Which Player Gets Drafted First: Amen Thompson (-250) or Ausar Thompson (+200)
• Exact Order – Top Three Picks: Wembanyama, Henderson, Amen Thompson (+300)
• Will Kris Murray Be Drafted in the Top Ten: Yes (+500) or No (-1000)

There are plenty of NBA sportsbooks that have NBA Draft betting offerings, including FanDuel, DraftKings, Caesars, and PointsBet. Take a look at the benefits of each sportsbook and how they can positively impact your experience betting on the NBA Draft.

While these sportsbooks largely offer the same types of NBA Draft bets, it is the other aspects of each sportsbook that could be the deciding factor in which you want to use.

FanDuel

As far as user interfaces go, few sportsbooks rival FanDuel, which prides itself in its clean, and non-threatening appearance. The home page is not overwhelming to look at but rather displays its variety of sports and betting types in an efficient manner. FanDuel also has promotions available that you can utilize if you have yet to create an account.

Caesars

If sports betting and betting on the NBA Draft excites you, but also seems like a scary venture, Caesars is a viable option. Caesars has the name brand and simplicity for you to easily create an account and know that your information and funds are secure. Additionally, Caesars constantly comes out with promos for new and existing users, so you can continue to maximize its offerings. Expect plenty of promos around the time that the NBA Draft arrives.

DraftKings

DraftKings had the luxury of dipping its toes in the fantasy sports world before online sports betting opened in 2018. Due to the advantage in resources and time, DraftKings has built itself into a powerhouse online betting site. From customer service to user interface and even betting types available, DraftKings is competitive with other sportsbooks in the industry. You can find a wide array of NBA Draft bets on DraftKings and at solid odds, too.

PointsBet

PointsBet, famous for “PointsBetting,” a new kind of betting style, is one of the more unique options available as far as sportsbooks go. It has a wonderful “name a bet” feature that allows you to explain the type of bet you want offered to you, and it gives you the odds. The versatility that PointsBet has makes it one of the top sportsbooks on the market, and the “name a bet” feature could come in handy if you think up a specific idea for an NBA Draft bet that you’re not seeing offered elsewhere.

There is no way to guarantee a profit betting on sports, including the wagering on the NBA Draft. However, you can develop basic strategies to give yourself a better chance.

Objectivity: Name of the Game

It’s not about being right about a player’s potential; it’s about the player’s destination (team or pick number). Searching through mock drafts and listening to experts’ opinions can help you get a solid indication of a player’s next home or draft position. While valuable information can be gathered through mock drafts, it is important to understand the relevance of the expert (or fan) that is putting them out.

For instance, mock drafts completed by well-respected, expert analysts, such as Jonathan Wasserman (Bleacher Report), Jeremy Woo (SI.com), and other notable names in the industry, should be valued higher because of their experience, knowledge and access to NBA insiders and executives.

The key is to remain objective and not get attached to any player. Your opinion on whether or not a player deserves to go higher doesn’t matter. You must be aware of how the industry perceives players and where they could fit on teams looking to draft them. If new information contradicts what you believe to be accurate, be objective and evaluate the situation logically.

Organizational Knowledge

Best Player Available, Best Fit, or Highest Upside?

This is where researching an organization’s draft history comes into play. Some teams tend to draft the best player available regardless of position or a player with the highest perceived upside, whereas others take a more targeted approach focused on addressing a positional need. Here are a few examples of teams that tend to use one of these three approaches:

Sacramento Kings: Best Fit

You can almost always count on the Sacramento Kings to select a player that will fit immediate needs and concerns rather than take the best player available on the board. In 2021, the Kings selected defensive-minded guard Davion Mitchell to address immediate defensive concerns; they were last in most key defensive statistical categories the year before. In 2022, Sacramento opted for Keegan Murray with the fourth pick, despite multiple players having seemingly higher upside. Murray was the ideal fit for the Kings, though, due to the need for a power forward in their starting lineup.

Golden State Warriors: Best Player Available

Due to their decade-long dynasty, the Warriors have had the luxury of taking players in the draft that they believe can make an immediate impact off the bench. Jonathan Kuminga, Jordan Poole, Moses Moody, James Wiseman, Patrick Baldwin Jr, and Damian Jones are all players that had an argument for being the best player available on the board when Golden State selected them. Notice that the Warriors don’t select many foreign prospects that could be considered “fliers” in the first round. They are more concerned with players who will make an impact immediately, and if they also have a high ceiling in addition, that’s just a bonus.

San Antonio Spurs: Highest Upside

San Antonio has always been a developmental organization that thrives in drafting players with high upside. The Spurs scarcely look at drafting the best player available or the best fit, as they believe in finding hidden gems; that is how they won five championships from 1999-2014. For instance, Tim Duncan was their franchise cornerstone, while Tony Parker (28th overall pick) and Manu Ginobli (57th pick) were their riskier, higher-upside selections. Players like Josh Primo and Jeremy Sochan, who were young with high ceilings, are the type of players San Antonio covets. Don’t expect the Spurs to take the best player available unless that player also has the highest ceiling of any player left on the board.

The bottom line: You want to understand a team’s strategy. This can give you a sense of how the front office will behave in the draft room and make your predictions more accurate.

Follow NBA Social Media

Due to huge NBA Twitter and media personalities like Shams Charania, Jonathan Givony, and Adrian Wojnarowski, information comes through quickly on social media platforms. It will benefit you to stay up-to-date on relevant news leading up to the draft.

There will be information to sift through and determine whether it’s from a credible source or is at least a rumor containing some semblance of substance. Still, it can be worth it by giving you an inside edge and helping you find value before the sportsbooks adjust.

An example of that is when news broke in June 2022 that Paolo Banchero was being heavily considered to be selected by the Orlando Magic with the first overall pick, sportsbooks quickly jumped on that and adjusted the odds. Still, it took a while for the true value of Banchero going first overall to settle, as many people were able to get him going first overall at plus-money odds.

Additionally, you should follow NBA teams’ social media accounts and any relevant personality associated with the NBA or a particular team. Follow as many influential NBA insiders as possible, but don’t take everything you read as truth.

The NBA Draft is one of the most entertaining off-season events for basketball fans, as it can change an organization’s trajectory for the future. The stakes are high.

Teams like the Golden State Warriors have historically done a fabulous job selecting franchise cornerstones in the draft and building a dynasty through this event. Small market teams rely on the draft to rebuild, as they are not often compelling free-agent destinations.

Even fans of struggling teams can look forward to the draft. Teams can find generational players at any stage in the draft. Multiple-time MVP Nikola Jokic was a second-round pick, while Steph Curry (7th pick), Kawhi Leonard (15th), Kobe Bryant (13th), Dirk Nowitzki (9th), Giannis Antetokounmpo (15th), Steve Nash (15th) and John Stockton (16th) are just some of the all-time greatest players who have been selected outside the top-five picks.

While the NBA Draft is entertaining to watch, is it worth betting? The NBA Draft can be worth betting on. “Paolo Banchero to be selected first overall” backers were getting odds as long as 20/1 in early June 2022. While there is little doubt that the NBA Draft is speculative, it can be profitable for savvy bettors and wildly entertaining, at the very least.

Gambling on the NBA Draft is easier than ever, as most states have sports betting. There is always the option to hop on a plane and fly to a physical sportsbook in Las Vegas, but FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM, Caesars, PointsBet, BetRivers, Barstool and other NBA betting sites have made it possible to bet online from where you live.

The first step in betting on the NBA Draft, and for sports betting generally, is to identify which states allow sports betting. Driving to a neighboring state is also an option.

The next step will be to find a first-time user promotion. It can help to evaluate each sportsbook, weighing its pros and cons when deciding which one to choose as your primary.

After creating an account and utilizing applicable bonuses or promotions, you’re set to bet on the draft. Here’s a step-by-step example below featuring FanDuel Sportsbook.

• Go on to the applicable sportsbooks website or mobile app (ex. https://sportsbook.fanduel.com/)
• Click “Join Now” in the top right corner
• Click on the state you are located in or want to create an account for (ex. If you are currently out of the state, but reside or visit there)
• Enter your email address, a selected “username,” and a password
• Click “Create Account”
• Select Your Title (Mr., Mrs., Miss), Type in your First and Last Name
• Hit Continue
• Enter your Birthday and Phone Number
• Hit Continue
• Type in your Address
• Hit Continue
• Enter the Last Four Digits of your Social Security Number
• Read the statements listed and confirm your information is accurate
• Hit Verify Identity
• Once you set up your account, you will be redirected to the home page. In the top right corner you will see an “Add Funds” button. Click “Add Funds”
• Choose from one of the many deposit methods available, including debit/credit cards (Mastercard, Visa, and American Express), wire transfer, Apple Pay, Online Banking (routing number and account number), Venmo, PayPal, and others.
• You are all set to bet.