According to oddsmakers in the fall, LeBron James was a big favorite to break Kareem Abdul-Jabbar’s all-time NBA scoring record this season. Now, the odds are off the board as it’s virtually guaranteed.
Barring a catastrophic injury to end his season, James will break the record. As of Wednesday, he was about 400 points away. While you can no longer bet on this futures prop, you can still wager on his NBA games en route to history.
James, 37, is close to surpassing a record previously considered unbreakable. As of early November, DraftKings Sportsbook posted odds on him eclipsing Abdul-Jabbar’s 38,387 points before the 2022-23 season ends and odds on failing to reach the mark.
Here was the market on the prop from the sportsbook:
Will LeBron James break the NBA scoring record this season?
Yes: -1100, No: +650
Odds on Nov. 4, 2022
James has defied expectations for a player at this stage of his career. He’s still operating at a high level, averaging well about 29 points per game for the Los Angeles Lakers, along with strong rebound and assist numbers. His 20 years of work have put him in a position to secure one of the league’s greatest lifetime achievement awards.
Inevitable Progression
There’s a saying that records are meant to be broken.
The all-time mark was set in 1984 when the then-Lakers center eclipsed Wilt Chamberlain’s mark of 31,419 points. He then tacked on another 6,968 points before retiring in 1989.
The pace of the modern game is beneficial for scorers, but it’s also more physically demanding. Only 10 players have lasted at least 20 seasons, and James became one of them during opening night in 2022.
In November, when DraftKings (which LeBron James represents) still had odds posted, all James needed to set the record in the 2022-23 season was average about 15 points per game the rest of the way. At his rate of points per game in the fall, James was expected to pass Abdul-Jabbar well before the season concluded. If he averaged what he did in his rookie season (20.9 PPG), his worst ever, the record was still within in reach.
There was also the possibility, if not an expectation, that James kicked it up a notch. He ended up doing just that.
James has had some struggles shooting this season. This is after he averaged 30.3 points per game in the 2021-22 season, the second-highest total of his career and the most since 2005-06 (31.4)–his third season as a pro.
In November, if he had maintained his PPG standard, he was on pace to set the record in early February. If he regressed to his rookie PPG rate, he would have been on pace set it in early March.
Betting on futures presents a risk and an opportunity. On the one hand, money is tied up for weeks or months in advance, and circumstances can change quickly. On the other hand, odds are typically better the further away the event is, especially if betting on a favorite.
Congrats to bettors who took the bet in the fall.
Trading Westbrook Could’ve Impacted Odds
James may be allowed to take more nights off to rest for a potential playoff push. One of the main reasons Westbrook was brought was to give the team enough punch to win regular-season games even without James. That did not happen, but it now seems possible.
There is the chance that the Lakers will use Westbrook as a trade asset while his stock is at its highest since he became a Laker. A trade with the Pacers for Myles Turner and Buddy Hield had been floated, while deals for the San Antonio Spurs’ Doug McDermott, Jakob Poeltl and Josh Richardson, as well as the Charlotte Hornets’ Gordon Hayward and Terry Rozier, were potentially on the table.
If Lakers executive Rob Pelinka pulls the trigger on a deal, James will be able to become more of a facilitator in the half-court. That would lead to him averaging fewer points but lessen his workload and boost his longevity.
Injury is the Betting Risk
An unforeseen injury is the only roadblock between James and the all-time scoring title. There is no way that a player with his track record and ability averages doesn’t break the record.
James could miss a ton of games and still set the record, and while he has suffered various injuries over the past few years, he has never missed too many games in one campaign.
LA is still hoping to somehow win its second championship in the James-Anthony Davis era and the first with Westbrook, but there’s no doubt that eyes are on James’s record chase.
Golden State Warriors forward Draymond Green, a business partner of James, said that he would call out sick from work to watch the Lakers the night James breaks the record. Shaquille O’Neal even questioned how anyone could reject James as the greatest basketball player ever once he inevitably sets the record.
All there is to do is wait for James to claw his way into the position of most prolific scorer in basketball history.
