The Denver Nuggets eliminated the Los Angeles Lakers from the NBA playoffs on May 22, 2023, but most of the headlines came after play concluded.
In his postgame comments, four-time NBA champion LeBron James left his status for next season up in the air. His comments appeared to surprise many in the NBA world.
“We’ll see what happens going forward,” James said. “I got a lot to think about, to be honest. Just for me personally going forward with the game of basketball.”
At DraftKings Sportsbook, one of the leading basketball betting sites, NBA title odds for next season have already dropped, with the Lakers sitting at +1000 ($100 bet wins $1,000), the fifth-shortest betting odds on the board. But if James announces his retirement over the summer, those odds could shift drastically. It’s a risky bet to make right now.
It’s worth noting that the odds didn’t change following James’ retirement talk. In other words, betting markets don’t see it as likely.
Teams with better opening odds than the Lakers for 2024 were the Phoenix Suns (+850), Milwaukee Bucks (+650), Boston Celtics (+600), and Denver Nuggets (+550).
Will LeBron James Play In 2024?
From a betting standpoint, bettors would be wise to wait on betting the Lakers until LeBron’s future becomes clear.
That said, the current number offers little value based on Los Angeles’ underlying metrics. According to dunksandthrees.com, the Lakers finished the 2022-23 regular season with the 16th-best adjusted net rating after facing the 21st-hardest strength of schedule.
Even in their 23 games after the All Star-break, the Lakers owned the sixth-best net rating without adjusting for strength of schedule, per NBA Advanced Stats.
The Lakers are far from bettable at +1000 odds if James retires. In the 2022-23 season, Los Angeles saw their offensive rating increase by 6.5 points with James on the court. They also played better defense with James—their opponent’s offensive rating rose by 2.4 points with James off the court.
That +8.9 net rating with LeBron on the floor is, perhaps unsurprisingly, the biggest change on the current roster. In the event James retires, bettors should wait and see what roster moves Los Angeles pulls off before placing a bet on them to lift the Larry O’Brien trophy come June 2024.
Father & Son NBA Duo
Looming over all those elements, though, is LeBron’s stated desire to play in the NBA with his son, Bronny James.
The elder James previously noted his preference to share the court with his son, who will be eligible for the NBA beginning with the 2024-25 season.
“I need to be on the floor with my boy,” James said in an interview with ESPN. “I gotta be on the floor with Bronny.”
James’ son has committed his immediate future to collegiate basketball with the University of Southern California and presumably would play one season before declaring for the draft.
LeBron’s contract includes a player option for 2024-25, as he signed a two-year extension before the 2022-23 season. So, both James’ could find themselves on new teams for that campaign. Could they both return home to Cleveland?
One final factor worth considering in the James retirement discussion is the idea of a “farewell tour.”
The NBA’s all-time leading scorer certainly could replicate something similar to what former Heat teammate Dwyane Wade produced for his final season, so the idea he’ll hang it up without that fanfare appears far-fetched.
