Betting Matchup Preview
Game Details
- Who: Sacramento Kings at Golden State Warriors
- When: Friday, April 28, 2023
- Time: 5 p.m. PT / 8 p.m. ET
- Where: Chase Center (San Francisco, California)
Betting Odds Summary
- Moneyline: Kings +255, Warriors -305
- Runline: Kings +7.5 (-110), Warriors -7.5 (-110)
- Total: Over/Under 235 Points (-110/-110)
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. Subject to change.
The Sacramento Kings and Golden State Warriors have been locked in an epic first-round battle, but it could end with Game 6 on Friday night. The oddsmakers list the Warriors as heavy moneyline favorites (-305) to clinch the series at home with the spread at 7.5 points.
Golden State beat Sacramento in Game 5 on the road to take a 3-2 lead in the series, marking the first road victory by either team in the series. Now, the Dubs head back home, where they are 35-8 (81.4% winning percentage) this season.
Regarding NBA betting results, Golden State owns the league’s best record against the spread (ATS) at home (28-14-1). Thanks to covering 66.7% of their home games, the Warriors lead the NBA in return on investment (ROI) at +26.64%. Golden State is 2-0 at home in this series and going for its fourth straight victory over Sacramento.
While the Warriors’ home record is promising, the Kings are the most profitable road team in the NBA at 28-15 ATS.
Sacramento is in trouble after blowing a 2-0 series lead and is on the verge of elimination. Leading scorer De’Aaron Fox is playing with a broken finger but fought through the pain with 24 points, nine assists and seven rebounds on Wednesday. Broken finger or not, Fox is still a triple-double threat.
The Kings could use more offense from Domantas Sabonis, who is averaging 17.2 points per game in this series. He does have three double-doubles in this series, but the scoring has been inconsistent.
One area that Sabonis and Fox need to improve on is turnovers. Sabonis is averaging four turnovers per game during the series, while Fox is averaging 3.6. They combined for 11 turnovers in Game 5, which is too many against a veteran team like the Warriors.
It’s easy to doubt the Kings, given their recent struggles, but they finished the regular season with the No. 1 offense in the NBA and will not go down without a fight.
Best Bet: Warriors vs. Kings
There is no denying Golden State’s dominance at home this season, but 7.5 points is a high spread for this game, even with Fox banged up for Sacramento. Four of the five games in this series were decided by single digits, including two by one possession.
While the Warriors are the best home team in the NBA, the Kings counter with the best road record against the spread. Accordingly, we recommend betting on Sacramento to cover the spread at +7.5 (-110). The moneyline for Golden State (-305) isn’t playable, and it feels too risky to trust the Kings with +255 odds to pull off an upset.
A winning $100 bet on Sacramento against the spread would pay $91 in profit plus the return of your $100 wager. The $9 here is the vigorish.
Our Same-Game Parlay
If you’re seeking a larger payout on the Kings-Warriors game, adding a same-game parlay to your betting card is worth considering. These are long-shot bets, so temper expectations.
This type of wager allows you to combine two or more bets from the same event into a single play. The advantage is that the odds for the combined wager are higher than betting the plays separately. For more insight, check out our same-game parlay overview.
Here’s the trio of NBA prop bets we selected for this game:
- Klay Thompson Over 23.5 Points (-120)
- De’Aaron Fox Over 5.5 Rebounds (+100)
- Andrew Wiggins Over 1.5 Blocks + Steals (+190)
Klay Thompson has scored 25+ points in the last two games to help Golden State take the series lead. He’s shooting over 40% from deep in this series and is as dialed in as a guy can be. Thompson is also flawless from the charity stripe during these playoffs.
Despite a broken finger, Fox shined in Game 5 with seven rebounds and his fifth straight 24+ point game. Fox is a good bet to go off again from the field, but his rebounding prop is a better play at +100. Fox has gone over 5.5 boards in three straight games, with 25 total during that stretch.
Another guy averaging more than his Game 6 prop odds is Andrew Wiggins. The forward blocked two shots and had two steals in Game 5 after tallying four blocks and one steal in Game 4. He’s beaten the 1.5 total three times in five games. He’s a solid bet to do it again.
After combining these three bets into a same-game parlay, the odds increase to +963. That would be good for a $963 profit on a $100 winning bet.
