As the WNBA regular season nears its halfway point, one team has established itself as a clear-cut championship favorite.
Sitting at 15-1 through the first 16 games, the Las Vegas Aces are three-and-a-half games clear of the New York Liberty (11-4) and the Connecticut Sun (12-5). Only the Sun have successfully conquered the Aces, who lead the WNBA in offensive rating.
Currently, the Aces arrive at each contest with four prolific scorers that present a problem for opposing defenses. Most valuable player contender A’ja Wilson (+250 betting odds to win WNBA MVP) leads the team with 19.6 points per game.
Elsewhere, Jackie Young, Kelsey Plum and Chelsea Gray all average north of 14 points per game.
The best online sportsbooks have taken notice of this dominance and have reacted accordingly in the futures market. At DraftKings Sportsbook, for example, the Aces are -200 to win the WNBA crown.
Here’s how the full odds board shakes out, as of July 5.
WNBA Championship Futures Odds
- Las Vegas Aces: -200
- New York Liberty: +265
- Connecticut Sun: +1600
- Washington Mystics: +2200
- Dallas Wings: +5500
- Los Angeles Sparks: +7000
- Atlanta Dream: +7000
- Chicago Sky: +7500
- Indiana Fever: +10000
- Minnesota Lynx: +20000
- Seattle Storm: +25000
- Phoenix Mercury: +30000
It’s also worth noting DraftKings is offering an alternate futures market. Within that subset, bettors can choose from either the Aces or Liberty to win the title (-700) or the field (+500).
Aces a Good Bet in WNBA Futures Market?
The Aces are unquestionably one of the best teams in the league, but -200 is a steep price to pay with so much of the season left.
Of their first 16 games, only five have been decided by nine or fewer points. In addition to owning the best offensive rating in the league, the Aces simultaneously own the best net rating (+19.4).
For reference, the team with the second-best net rating—the New York Liberty—own a +8.4 rating, while the Connecticut Sun—third in net rating—sit at +5.4, per basketball-reference.com.
Despite those drastic differences in rating, bettors wanting to bet the Aces may benefit from waiting.
Although they’ve produced the best record in the league, the Aces have accomplished that feat against a relatively weak schedule. As it stands, their opponents own a combined record of 116-143.
Through their first 16 games, the Aces have only played a quarter of their games against teams with a record above .500. Although they’re 3-1 in those contests, bettors may benefit from a larger sample before diving headfirst in on the favorites.
Another factor to consider is the Aces’ main title competition up through this point. Through their first 15 games, the Liberty’s opponents own an aggregate record of 118-122, creating a harder strength of schedule than the Aces.
Even though the Aces thoroughly dominated the Liberty in their lone head-to-head meeting, it could be argued these teams are closer together in quality than these odds suggest.
Plus, it’s not as if the Liberty are completely devoid of any talent. WNBA MVP favorite Breanna Stewart leads the team with 22 points per game while four other players average in double figures.
Given oddsmakers are essentially telling you it’s a two-horse race for the title, it would be the Liberty or nothing for us at this point. Although there’s a risk of the Aces continuing to dominate as their schedule toughens, there’s simultaneously a chance their odds shorten.
For now, avoid betting any meaningful portion of your sports betting bankroll on the Aces to win the WNBA title.
