The 2023 FIDE Open World Rapid & Blitz Championships kick off Dec. 25 and run through Dec. 31 in Samarkand, Uzbekistan. First up is the rapid tournament, and Norwegian chess legend Magnus Carlsen will compete.
The format is 15 minutes plus 10 seconds increment per move, starting from the first move. The 13-round tournament will use the Swiss system. The prize fund is $350,000.
More than 200 players will compete, with most of the game’s top grandmasters registered.
There will be a five-minute broadcast delay for the rapid tournament as an anti-cheating measure.
Carlsen, the world’s best chess player since 2010, is the betting favorite in every tournament he plays. Below are the current and opening odds for each participant with a line.
| Player | Current | Opening |
|---|---|---|
| M. Carlsen | +100 | +175 |
| Any player not listed | +600 | +200 |
| F. Caruana | +1000 | +1400 |
| M. Vachier-Lagrave | +1600 | +1200 |
| I. Nepomniachtchi | +2000 | +1200 |
| N. Abdusattorov | +2000 | +1600 |
| V. Artemiev | +2000 | N/A |
| N. Sarin | +2000 | N/A |
| J.-K. Duda | +2500 | +2500 |
| L. Aronian | +2500 | N/A |
| A. Giri | +2500 | N/A |
| D. Gukesh | +2500 | +2500 |
| A. Erigaisi | +2500 | N/A |
| P. Svidler | +3300 | N/A |
| R. Rapport | +3300 | N/A |
| R. Praggnanandhaa | +3300 | +2000 |
| Y. Yangyi | +3300 | N/A |
| A. Grischuk | +3300 | N/A |
| V. Fedoseev | +4000 | N/A |
| S. Mamedyarov | +4000 | N/A |
| D. Dubov | +5000 | N/A |
| T. Radjabov | +5000 | N/A |
| A. Esipenko | +5000 | N/A |
| J. Van Foreest | +5000 | N/A |
| V. Gujrathi | +6600 | N/A |
| S. Saleh | +6600 | N/A |
| E. Bacrot | +8000 | N/A |
| B. Jobava | +10000 | N/A |
| S. Lu | +10000 | N/A |
| L. Fressinet | +10000 | N/A |
| H. Nakamura | N/A | +600 |
| W. So | N/A | +1600 |
| A. Firouzja | N/A | +1000 |
Source: Bwin Sportsbook. Current as of Dec. 22. Subject to change.
Carlsen won the event four of the last 10 times it was held, including two of the last three, in addition to a runner-up performance (2012) and two third places (2016 and 2021).
His opening +175 odds carried an implied probability of 36.4%, a fair price considering he took first in 40% of the last 10 runnings. His current odds of +100 are far less appealing but still probably the best moneyline bet available.
Carlsen’s 2023 in classical chess (longer time controls) has been the weakest of his career since becoming the world’s highest-rated player in 2010. Carlsen often says he’s less interested in classical chess. He vacated his world championship title earlier this year.
Of course, this is a rapid event. Carlsen won a rapid tournament in Toronto earlier this month.
Carlsen’s top rivals, Americans Hikaru Nakamura and Fabiano Caruana, were not yet confirmed as entrants when opening odds were posted. Caruana decided to play, while Nakamura skipped the World Rapid Championship.
A playable long-shot bet is Nodirbek Abdusattorov of Uzbekistan (+2000). The 19-year-old won the event in 2021, defeating Carlen en route to his stunning underdog victory. The tournament is in his home country, so he might benefit from a lack of long-distance travel. Abdusattorov has had a steady but unspectacular 2023 in terms of classical rating.
Daniil Dubov, the 2018 champion, could also be worth a long-shot play at +5000.
You could bet Carlsen and hedge with a smaller wager on a long shot who has demonstrated the ability to win the World Rapid Championship.
Vincent Keymer, the 19-year-old German who was last year’s runner-up to Carlsen, doesn’t have odds. Betting on him would come with the “any player not listed” option. The +600 odds are interesting, considering you’d also get super talented young players like Parham Maghsoodloo, Javokhir Sindarov and Hans Niemann, who have all been on fire in recent months. Recent performances by Abdusattorov, Dubov, Keymer and Alireza Firouzja perhaps show that younger players have better chances in this event than older ones.
Still, it’s Carlsen’s event to lose.
Photo by Waleed Zein/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images
