How To Fill Out A March Madness Bracket: NCAA Tournament Betting Guide

The 2024 NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball Tournament kicks off on Tuesday, March 19 and concludes on Monday, April 8, 2024. There are 68 teams in the single-elimination tournament.

Selection Sunday takes place on Sunday, March 17 at 6 p.m. ET. It airs on CBS.

While the field hasn’t been set yet, online sportsbooks have already released futures odds for schools to win the tournament. UConn has the shortest odds after winning the tournament last year.

• UConn: +500
• Purdue: +750
• Houston: +750
• Tennessee: +1300
• Arizona: +1400
• North Carolina: +1800
• Auburn: +2000
• Marquette: +2000
• Iowa State: +2000
• Kentucky: +2200
• Alabama: +2500
• Duke: +2800
• Kansas: +2800
• Creighton: +3000

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. Subject to change.

The No. 8 seed Villanova Wildcats are the lowest seed to win March Madness, as they cut down the nets after upsetting No. 1 seed Georgetown in 1985.

Three No. 8 seeds have reached the championship round since then, but all have fallen short. Those teams were Butler in 2011, Kentucky in 2014 and North Carolina in 2022.

In terms of betting odds, the 2014 UConn Huskies were the biggest pre-tournament underdog to win the title. According to BetMGM Sportsbook, the Huskies were 100/1 longshots in 2014.

That would be the equivalent of Utah State or Florida Atlantic (both 100/1) winning in 2024.

It’s worth noting that Villanova’s odds in 1985 were much shorter at 35/1, so the Wildcats weren’t a total surprise.

The odds for March Madness will change as the tournament unfolds. As teams are eliminated and removed from the odds board, the odds for every remaining team will shorten to varying degrees.

If you like a team, it’s better to jump on them early. The longer you wait, the lower your potential payout will be.

Team performances will also impact the odds for future games. For example: If a top seed plays poorly against an inferior opponent but still squeaks out a win, the close call will be factored into the updated odds.

Injuries are another significant factor. If a star player goes down, his team’s odds will worsen. If he comes back, his team’s odds will improve.

Lastly, sportsbooks will adjust odds based on potential matchups. A team’s path to the championship can become harder or easier depending on what other teams advance or are eliminated. If a No. 1 seed gets knocked out early, the No. 2 seed in that region will have shorter odds.

March Madness takes place over a three-week span in late March and early April, providing constant action. Here are the key dates basketball fans should know for this year’s tournament:

• Selection Sunday: March 17
• First Four: March 19-20
• First Round: March 21-22
• Second Round: March 23-24
• Sweet 16: March 28-29
• Elite Eight: March 30-31
• Final Four: April 6
• National Championship: April 8

The traditional way to wager on March Madness is through a bracket pool.

The NCAA’s website is the best place to download and print a March Madness bracket. Selection Sunday on March 17, 2024 will determine the seeding for the bracket.

Of the more than 350 men’s Division I programs in the country, only 68 will get the chance to compete for a national title.

Brackets can be a fun, easy way to compete against friends, family members and co-workers. They’re also free to play, so you don’t need to bet anything on them if you don’t want to.

Brackets are a bit different than sports betting because you’re directly competing against other people instead of going against the house. However, similar strategies apply and can help you succeed at both.

Filling out a bracket is simple. All you do is pick which team wins a particular matchup and then write that team’s name in the next round.

The NCAA Tournament is single elimination, which means one loss removes a team from the tournament. There isn’t a series of games like in the NBA Playoffs.

There are a few different ways to fill out your bracket. You can start in the first round and proceed chronologically through the tournament.

If you have a team in mind for who will win the championship, you could fill in the school as the winner and work backwards from there.

You can change your selections until the tournament starts. Once the games begin, however, your picks lock and you can no longer update your bracket.

There is no correct way to fill out a bracket other than picking a winner of every game and making sure every box has a team name in it.

No, there is no known 100% correct March Madness bracket. There are 9.2 quintillion possible brackets, making a perfect one extremely unlikely. You are more likely to be struck by lightning or be elected president than pick all 67 games correctly.

In fact, no one has gotten particularly close. According to the NCAA, the longest verifiable streak of correct picks in a bracket to start a March Madness tournament was 49, which came from an Ohio man in 2019. He had every game correct into the Sweet 16, an almost unbelievable accomplishment.

However, he was still several rounds short of a perfect bracket. Given the astronomical odds, it’s possible none of us will see one in our lifetimes.

According to the American Gaming Association, about 56 million people planned to fill out a March Madness bracket in 2023. That included countless bracket contests on the internet, office/work pools, contests between friends and family, and so on.

Many people fill out multiple brackets, so the total number of brackets in a given year can approach 100 million.

Compared to sports betting, filling out a bracket is easier and has fewer limitations. You do not need to meet an age requirement or be physically located in a legal sports betting state to fill out a bracket. All you need is a writing utensil and a piece of paper.

It wasn’t that long ago that bettors had to visit Las Vegas or use offshore sportsbooks to place bets. Pictures of those betting tickets occasionally surface on social media, reminding the gambling community of a simpler (but less convenient) time.

Now, bettors in legal sports betting states have multiple sportsbooks at their disposal and can place March Madness bets from the comfort of home.

Here are some of the most popular sportsbooks for March Madness wagers. Availability may vary by state.

• DraftKings Sportsbook: DraftKings is one of the industry’s biggest and most popular brands, recently partnering with NBA superstar LeBron James. It operates in most states with legal online sports betting and makes building parlays easy with its Parlay Builder tool.
• FanDuel Sportsbook: FanDuel equals DraftKings in popularity and market share. Its clean, sleek interface makes it easy to place wagers quickly.
• BetMGM Sportsbook: Known as “The King of Sportsbooks,” BetMGM is one of the best sportsbooks on the market.
• Caesars Sportsbook: If you like odds boosts, Caesars has you covered. It has the most odds boosts in the industry, typically offering dozens per day on a variety of sports.
• Bet365 Sportsbook: The British-based Bet365 is a top global brand that’s gaining popularity in America as well.
• Fanatics Sportsbook: Fanatics is one of the newest sportsbooks on the market, debuting in 2023 after merging with PointsBet. Users can earn FanCash rewards with every bet.
• BetRivers Sportsbook: BetRivers has more of a local feel compared to the big national brands above. Its quick odds updates make it great for live betting.
• ESPN BET: ESPN BET launched in late 2023 after taking over Barstool Sportsbook. It features betting picks from famous ESPN personalities like Stephen A. Smith and Mike Greenberg.

Choosing a sportsbook to use is an important part of the process, so do your research. Make sure to compare odds and welcome offers before signing up. You can also register for multiple sportsbooks as long as they’re available in your state.

The first step is identifying if your state has legalized sports betting. If your state doesn’t yet, not all gambling hope is lost. There is likely a bordering state that does, as long as you don’t mind a short road trip.

If your state has it, you can download a mobile sportsbook app to your phone and create an account in just a few minutes. Be on the lookout for special welcome offers, as sportsbooks will often give new users bonus bets for signing up and placing a small wager.

You can also visit a retail sportsbook if you live in close proximity to one.

As of March 2024, 38 states and Washington, D.C. have some form of legal sports betting.

There are numerous types of bets for March Madness, giving bettors plenty of options to choose from.

Common bet types include futures bets, moneyline bets, point spread bets, point total (also known as “Over/Under”) bets, prop bets, parlays, same-game parlays and live bets.

A minus sign in front of a number indicates that a bet is favored to win, while a plus sign means that bet is an underdog. The larger the number, the heavier the favorite or underdog.

Moneyline

A moneyline bet is betting on a team to win straight up. In this hypothetical example, if you place a moneyline bet on West Virginia to win its first game of the tournament and its odds are -200, then you need to bet $200 to win $100.

However, if you want to bet on the underdog in that same game – say it’s South Dakota State – and it has +140 odds, then you’d only need to bet $100 to win $140.

That’s how American odds work, and the moneyline is the simplest way to wager on a game. You don’t have to worry about the final score or the performances of individual players.

Point Spread

The point spread is a bet on the margin of victory at close to even money (usually -110 for either team). If Kentucky is a high seed and regarded as a much better team than its opponent, it may be favored by a large number of points, say 17.5.

That means Kentucky has to beat its opponent, let’s say Morehead State, by at least 18 points for its spread backers to win money.

Meanwhile, the opposite is true for Morehead State. As long as it loses by fewer than 18 points or wins the game outright, it covers the spread.

Point Total (Over/Under)

The point total, also known as the Over/Under, is also a relatively simple concept.

Sportsbooks set the line at a certain number of total points to be scored. Say the line is 149 points for Gonzaga vs. North Carolina, you can wager on whether the final score will be over or under 149 total points.

Like the point spread, Over/Under odds are usually set at -110 (you have to bet $110 to win $100) for both sides of the line.

One thing to note is that the point total is usually put into the same table as the spread and moneyline, which may make it look like you’re betting on an individual team (i.e., Gonzaga to hit over 149 points and North Carolina to hit under 149 points), but it is for both teams’ total. If you want to bet the point total on just one team, you can find it under “team props.”

Live Bet

A live bet is a wager on any market for a game once it’s in progress, as opposed to a pregame wager that you place before the game starts. The odds and lines will change throughout the game depending on how it unfolds, so the timing of live bets is very important. Odds will usually look much different in the second half of a game compared to the first half.

Live bets can be a good way to hedge against pregame wagers, like if the team you picked to win gets off to a slow start and falls behind early.

Future

Futures bets are wagers on future outcomes, like which team will win a championship or which player will win an award. For March Madness, the most common futures market is which team will win the NCAA Tournament.

Other popular March Madness futures bets include a team to win its region or a player to win the tournament’s Most Outstanding Player Award. It’s also possible to wager on which teams will receive No. 1 seeds or which conference will win the tournament.

Obviously, these bets need to be placed before the event takes place. The odds will also fluctuate over the course of a season or tournament depending on how teams and players perform.

Future bets are fun to follow and often come with plus odds, but they don’t pay out until the outcome is decided. The result of the bet isn’t immediate, so your money is locked up for an extended period.

Accordingly, we don’t recommend tying up a large portion of your betting funds in futures bets.

Prop Bet

Prop bets are often divided into two categories – player-specific prop bets and game prop bets.

Player prop bets aren’t as extensive for March Madness as for pro sports leagues like the NBA. For the NBA, you can wager on a wide range of statistical categories like points, rebounds, assists, turnovers, steals and blocks. NCAA player props are much more limited.

Sports bettors have more options when it comes to game or team props. You can wager on markets like which team will win the first half, how many points a team will score in the game and more.

However, not every state allows player prop bets, in-state team betting or college betting in general, so make sure to check your state’s rules before placing any college prop wagers.

Parlay

Parlays are wagers that combine multiple bets, known as “legs,” into one wager.

Traditional parlays include multiple standard wagers like moneylines, spreads, totals, etc. Same-game parlays include multiple bets from the same game, like a moneyline wager, a first-half point total and a player prop.

All pieces of a parlay bet must come true for the bet to win. If one leg loses, the entire wager loses.

That makes parlay bets riskier, but they also come with longer odds and increased payouts. If you’re going to wager on three teams to win in the Sweet 16, you’ll make more money combining those three bets into a parlay than you would wagering on them individually.

Parlays can be a fun way to spice up your sports betting, but they don’t win as often as straight bets, so don’t invest too much of your bankroll in them.

Before betting on a team to win the NCAA Tournament, there are several important things to consider.

Seeding Matters

As mentioned, the lowest seed to win the tournament was a No. 8 seed, so betting money on a lower seed than that (No. 9-16) is not advisable.

That’s not to say that it can’t or won’t ever happen, but the odds are not in your favor. Lower seeds are lower seeds for a reason, usually because they’re less talented and faced lighter competition.

It’s hard for these teams to win multiple games against superior opponents, as their flaws are often exposed.

Meanwhile, No. 1 seeds have historically dominated, winning 25 of the last 39 tournaments and 13 of the last 17. A top-3 seed has won 36 of the last 39 tournaments since the field expanded to 64 teams in 1985.

Top-seeded teams are usually deeper, more talented, better coached and more equipped to survive the tournament, making them better investments.

Ken Pomeroy’s Stats

Ken Pomeroy is one of the most relied-upon experts in the college basketball betting space, as he’s had his own statistical archive and analytical approach to the game for many years. His unique quantitative ratings of a team’s effectiveness, which includes the strength of opponents, help bettors of all skill levels get a clearer picture of every team’s quality.

In other words, the AP Poll doesn’t tell the whole story.

March Madness is titled that for a reason; it’s chaos with unpredictable upsets. However, Pomeroy’s adjusted efficiency ratings help cut through the noise and mitigate this chaos slightly.

Target teams near the top of his rankings, especially well-balanced squads that are formidable on both offense and defense.

Coaching Matters

The players are important, but coaching also matters. Plenty of teams have talent, but it takes a great coach to put it all together and get over the hump.

The only winning coach in the past 10 seasons who didn’t have a substantial track record was Kevin Ollie for UConn. However, he did inherit the program from legendary coach Jim Calhoun.

Here’s a list of the recent NCAA tournament champions and their coaches:

• 2024: Dan Hurley (UConn)
• 2023: Dan Hurley (UConn)
• 2022: Bill Self (Kansas)
• 2021: Scott Drew (Baylor)
• 2019: Tony Bennett (Virginia)
• 2018: Jay Wright (Villanova)
• 2017: Roy Williams (North Carolina)
• 2016: Jay Wright (Villanova)
• 2015: Mike Krzyzewski (Duke)
• 2014: Kevin Ollie (UConn)
• 2013: Rick Pitino (Louisville)

This approach is helpful with future bets but is less important in individual games, especially earlier in the tournament. Two No. 1 seeds have lost in the first round in the last five tournaments, proving anything can happen. Even the best coaches only have so much control over a game’s outcome, as they can’t prevent their players from making costly mistakes or stop their opponent from getting hot.

Find Peaking Teams

While looking at overall records is important, it’s also worth considering how teams have played recently coming into the tournament.

Maybe a team doesn’t have the best record but hasn’t lost in a month. Conversely, maybe a team started fast but faded as the season wore on.

Sometimes, that momentum can carry over into March Madness and be a precursor for how a team will perform. We’ve seen several teams come in hot and stay hot, such as UConn in 2011, Butler in 2010 and others.

Identifying peaking teams playing their best basketball in March (and fading slumping teams) is a good way to find betting value.

Seniority and Backcourt Importance

When you dissect the rosters from recent champions, they tend to have backcourt talent and experience. In close games, it is imperative to have experienced ball handlers who can be trusted to take care of the ball and make the right decisions under pressure.

Look at a list of the backcourt players for recent NCAA tournament champions. Many names are now familiar NBA players, exemplifying the importance of guard play:

• 2024: UConn: Tristen Newton, Cam Spencer, Stephon Castle
• 2023: UConn: Jordan Hawkins, Tristen Newton, Andre Jackson
• 2022: Kansas: Christian Braun, Ochai Agbaji
• 2021: Baylor: Davion Mitchell, Jared Butler, MaCio Teague
• 2019: Virginia: Kyle Guy, Ty Jerome, De’Andre Hunter
• 2018: Villanova: Jalen Brunson, Donte DiVincenzo, Mikal Bridges, Collin Gillespie
• 2017: North Carolina: Joel Berry, Justin Jackson
• 2016: Villanova: Josh Hart, Jalen Brunson, Mikal Bridges, Ryan Arcidiacano
• 2015: Duke: Quinn Cook, Tyus Jones, Grayson Allen, Justise Winslow
• 2014: UConn: Shabazz Napier, Ryan Boatright, Niels Giffey
• 2013: Louisville: Russ Smith, Peyton Siva, Luke Hancock

There can be rare exceptions if a team has a generational big man like Anthony Davis, but for the most part, teams with gifted guards have more success.

Identifying Cinderella teams capable of winning one or more tournament games is difficult. If it were easy, everyone would have perfect brackets and make a ton of money from the sportsbooks.

A recent Cinderella team was the Saint Peter’s Peacocks, a No. 15 seed that made it to the Elite Eight in 2022. The Peacocks were eventually bested by the North Carolina Tar Heels, who finished as the Tournament runner-up after losing to the Kansas Jayhawks in the National Championship Game.

Only a reported 0.87% of March Madness brackets had Saint Peter’s reaching the Elite Eight. It’s even possible that some of those brackets were filled out by children choosing which mascot they liked more, not which team they believed would win.

Backing the Peacocks’ moneyline at +1400 in their first game against No. 2 seed Kentucky would have yielded $1,400 on a $100 bet. If a bettor were bold enough to roll that money over into Saint Peter’s next game against Murray State, a No. 7 seed, they would have turned $1,400 into $5,740 on a moneyline bet.

In short, betting on March Madness, while incredibly speculative, can be profitable.

It’s difficult to imagine there were many bettors supporting the Peacocks during their magical run. How do we identify which low-seeded teams can be the next Cinderella?

Uniqueness Matters

There’s a reason Syracuse can barely squeak into the NCAA tournament and still cause problems – teams aren’t used to playing against their 2-3 zone defense. The Orange have had multiple deep runs in the tournament, including two Final Four appearances in the past 11 years.

This brings us to another point: uniqueness matters.

Due to the short time between the end of conference tournaments and the start of March Madness, it can be difficult to properly prepare for teams. Throwing a unique style of play into the mix can sometimes complicate things. Numerous teams have fit this bill recently, including VCU in 2011, Miami in 2022, Loyola Chicago in 2018, Florida Gulf Coast in 2013 and Davidson in 2008.

Every one of these teams had something unique about their play style or situation. VCU had a full-court press, Miami played at the fastest pace in college basketball, FGCU dunked everything (they were nicknamed “Dunk City”), Loyola was slow, methodical, efficient and had “Sister Jean” cheering in a wheelchair from the sidelines, and Davidson had arguably the greatest shooter (Steph Curry) in basketball history.

When deciding which teams to bet on, dig deep into their style, pace, recent form and overall situation. Having a 99-year-old die-hard fan who comes to every game counts, as the team rallied around having something to play for. Since Loyola Chicago didn’t make the tournament much before 2018, this was its opportunity.

It’s easy to beat what you know and practice against, which is usually half-court, man-to-man defense. It’s difficult to win when an opponent’s style is unique, even for the best teams in college basketball.

Offensive Firepower

Offensive firepower doesn’t necessarily mean having many three-point shooters or putting up 80-90 points per game. It could mean the team is incredibly efficient on that end of the floor or is difficult to stop defensively.

Teams tend to play defense at a high level during the tournament because every possession matters. It’s easier to improve defense than offense because offense requires mostly talent and skill whereas defense is more effort-based.

For that reason, it’s smart to target teams that rank highly in Ken Pomeroy’s adjusted offensive efficiency, which measures a team’s points scored per 100 possessions and is adjusted by the quality of the opponent. A low-seeded team that ranks in the top 50-100 in adjusted offensive efficiency is a great target.

Lowest Seeds To Win

As mentioned above, most Cinderella teams don’t make it the whole way. After all, you have to win six (seven, if you’re a play-in team) straight games against the best talent in college basketball. That’s challenging for any team.

The lowest-seeded team to make it through the March Madness gauntlet was the No. 8 seed Villanova Wildcats in 1985. Since then, no team lower than a No. 8 seed has even reached the championship round.

In short, it doesn’t make much sense to back a low seed to win the championship. They might rattle off a few wins and make some noise, but they are unlikely to go all the way. Look more towards individual games to bet on Cinderellas rather than futures bets.

For better or for worse, we often see historically successful programs winning the NCAA Tournament. These teams often have clear advantages in recruiting, facilities, funding, coaches and more.

Fifteen schools have accounted for 62 of the 84 championships in March Madness history, including 11 by UCLA alone, so it’s more likely that a previous champion will win the tournament.

Keep that in mind when making futures bet on the tournament. You’re better off backing a proven program like Kentucky or UNC than a school that’s never won before.

For reference, here’s the list of every school with at least two national titles:

• UCLA: 11
• Kentucky: 8
• North Carolina: 6
• UConn: 6
• Duke: 5
• Indiana: 5
• Kansas: 4
• Villanova: 3
• Louisville: 2
• Cincinnati: 2
• Florida: 2
• Michigan State: 2
• NC State: 2
• Oklahoma State: 2
• San Francisco: 2