College Football Week 12: Best Spread Bets & Picks

Texas looked vulnerable after a loss to Georgia and a three-point win against Vanderbilt, but it found its footing in last week’s 49-17 romp of Florida. A Longhorns defense ranked fourth in points allowed per game (12.1) now faces a rested Arkansas team coming off a bye week.

The Razorbacks had found little success against SEC opponents prior to scoring 58 and 31 points against Mississippi State and Ole Miss in their last two games. They’re 118th in passing yards allowed per attempt, so we like Texas to cover the spread.

Ohio State has allowed the fewest points per game (10.7) and ranks seventh in scoring (38.6 points per game). The Buckeyes annihilated Purdue 45-0 last weekend and have elite playmakers in the backfield and on the flanks, as well as great line play.

Ironically, Northwestern’s last game was also against Purdue, who the Wildcats beat 26-20. Four of their five losses were by at least 17 points and they’re 122nd in scoring at just 17.8 points per game.

Look for Ohio State to cover in a game where Northwestern struggles to put points on the board.

Penn State used its 20-13 loss against Ohio State to fuel a 35-6 demolition of a solid Washington team last week. The Nittany Lions amassed 266 rushing yards and four touchdowns on 40 carries and now get to face a defense that’s eighth-worst in defensive EPA per rush play.

There aren’t many positives to say about Purdue after eight straight losses. The Boilermakers have the second-worst average scoring margin in the country (-28.4) and have scored 10 points or less in five of their last eight games.

Betting the chalk is a viable option here.

Tennessee is not the same tempo-focused, high-flying offensive force it was at the start of the year. The Volunteers have leaned into their running game and a defense that’s second in EPA per play and fifth in points allowed per game (13.8).

Georgia’s defense showed up against Texas a few weeks ago but allowed nearly 400 yards of offense in last week’s loss to Ole Miss. Concerningly, Bulldogs quarterback Carson Beck has three touchdowns and seven interceptions against ranked SEC opponents this season.

Tennessee allows just 2.9 yards per rush attempt and could force Georgia to be one-dimensional, so we’d recommend taking the points with the Volunteers here.

Missouri kept its CFP hopes alive with a win against Oklahoma last weekend, although the Tigers clearly don’t have the same ability as the other two-loss SEC teams and are worse with backup QB Drew Pyne under center. They’ll need to rally behind a defense that doesn’t have eye-popping metrics but held the Sooners to 257 total yards last weekend.

South Carolina’s midseason turnaround and three-game win streak were inspired by excellent defense and the improved efficiency of freshman QB LaNorris Sellers. The Gamecocks are a physical team that doesn’t generate many explosive plays through the air and has a style conducive to winning low-scoring games.

South Carolina should win, but Missouri is in a strong position to cover +13.5.

Heisman Trophy candidate Ashton Jeanty and Boise State hit the road after nearly blowing a 14-point lead to Nevada last week. Jeanty generated most of the Broncos’ offense with 209 rushing yards and three touchdowns, while the defense is excellent against the run but vulnerable to the pass.

San Jose State is a surprising 6-3 and fourth in the Mountain West, though the Spartans haven’t won consecutive games since Weeks 1-3. Junior QB Walker Eget threw for 395 yards against Oregon State last week and is willing to take enough risks to find the gaps in Boise State’s porous secondary, making SJSU +13.5 an enticing prospect.

Oregon head coach Dan Lanning has improved his team’s performance nearly every week and has the Ducks ready to compete for a national championship. They play physical but intelligent football and thrive in every aspect of the game, particularly passing and defending the pass.

Wisconsin wants to control its opponents’ airspace, but that will be difficult against a defense allowing the seventh-fewest passing yards per attempt (5.7). The Badgers got blown out in their last two games and are dealing with turmoil due to defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio’s recent arrest.

This should be a good day for Oregon -14.5 bettors.

Oddsmakers have faith in the 3-6 Jayhawks given how close these odds and some of their previous lines have been. Jalon Daniels is a dynamic QB with 12 total touchdowns and one interception in his last four games, though he must overcome a defense that gives up 28.8 points per game (82nd).

BYU is still undefeated after last week’s 22-21 road win over Utah on a last-second field goal. The Cougars’ defense is 15th in EPA per play but struggles to contain the run, which is a problem with Daniels on the other side.

Don’t be surprised if this game marks the end of BYU’s perfect season.

Utah’s offense is incredibly disappointing and managed just 259 total yards against BYU last week. The Utes were held scoreless in three quarters and got shut out in the second half, allowing the Cougars to come back and beat them.

Colorado is one of the hottest teams in the country and is finally more than the sum of its parts. The Buffaloes have won three straight games and six of their last seven, and their defensive line has shown consistent improvement.

Betting on Colorado -11.5 is a reasonable play.

Clemson got back in the win column against Virginia Tech last week despite not scoring in the first half and managing just 3.6 yards per rush. On the bright side, its defense found its structure after poor showings against Virginia and Louisville.

Back-to-back losses have moved Pittsburgh from a potential ACC champion to being on the outside looking in at the championship game. The Panthers are excellent at running and defending against the run, but unfortunately for them, the Tigers are also solid in those areas.

Clemson is the better bet to win, but Pitt should come out firing and has a shot at covering +10.5.

Like Pitt, back-to-back losses have pretty much shut down LSU’s CFP hopes. Garrett Nussmeier has been ineffective against ranked opponents, as every SEC opponent besides Arkansas has forced him to throw at least one interception.

Florida was outmatched against Georgia and Texas but hasn’t given up. Freshman QB Aidan Warner has no touchdowns and three interceptions this season, and the Gators’ defense isn’t strong enough to overcome that level of play.

The Tigers are the more intriguing option here.

Houston is 3-0 when Zeon Chriss is healthy and under center for most of the game. The Cougars have had a solid defense all year (34th in EPA per play) and forced two interceptions in last week’s 24-19 win against Kansas State.

Injuries are largely to blame for Arizona’s capitulation, but this team looks like it’s essentially given up on the season. The Wildcats lost to UCF 56-12 two weeks ago and are on a five-game losing streak.

It’s surprising to see Arizona favored, so take the points with Houston.

BC’s decision to bench Thomas Castellanos for Grayson James led to the former hitting the transfer portal, while the latter helped lead an unexpected win against Syracuse last Saturday. The Eagles’ defense is average at best, but their offense just ran 51 times for 313 yards and three touchdowns last week.

SMU is a few wins away from stealing the ACC Championship in its first season in the conference. The Mustangs’ only loss was to BYU and they’ve won six straight games, including last week’s 48-25 rout of Pittsburgh.

SMU gives up just 2.9 yards per carry (sixth) and should be able to cover by keeping BC’s ground game at bay.

Michigan State was no match for undefeated Indiana in a 47-10 steamrolling two weeks ago. The Spartans defend the run well but don’t have much else in their favor besides coming off a bye week.

Illinois once had an outside chance at the CFP, but two straight losses have dashed those dreams. QB Luke Altmyer is having a solid season (18 TDs, three INTs), but the Fighting Illini give up 4.7 yards per carry (96th).

However, MSU averages just 3.5 yards per carry and is unlikely to exploit Illinois’ weakness, making the latter the safer pick.

Freshman QB Sam Leavitt has back-to-back games with three touchdowns and no interceptions for a 7-2 ASU team that’s still alive for the Big 12 championship. This is a very balanced team that’s tied for the seventh-fewest turnovers per game and has already beaten then-No. 16 Utah on the road.

Kansas State is also 7-2 and will be fighting for its CFP life on Saturday. The Wildcats blew their four-game winning streak with last week’s loss to Houston but have a high-powered offense that ranks 13th in EPA per play.

ASU is less likely to shoot itself in the foot, making the Sun Devils the more enticing option on the spread.