College Football Week 4: Best Spread Bets

Georgia Tech started its season with a bang by upsetting Florida State in Ireland in Week 0. They’re now 3-1 with a lone 31-28 loss to a strong Syracuse team and are fresh off a 59-7 demolition job against VMI.

Louisville has only played two games thus far and was off last week. They’ve yet to play a P4 or a strong G5 team and should struggle to cover against a hardened GT team. We like Georgia Tech +10.5.

Is this the year that Lincoln Riley figures out his USC defense? They held a high-powered LSU team to 20 points and shut out Utah State. Meanwhile, Miller Moss and the offense are seventh in EPA per play.

Michigan finally got its running game going against Arkansas State last week but still won by only 10 points. Starting QB Davis Warren has two touchdowns and six interceptions in three games and the Wolverines were dominated by Texas 31-12 the last time they faced a potent offense. Our pick is USC -5.5.

Utah QB Cam Rising is expected to return from a hand injury, which instantly makes the Utes a much more dangerous team. Their defense hasn’t been great thus far, but it has the personnel to be elite and forced two interceptions last week.

Reigning Doak Walker winner and Oklahoma State running back Ollie Gordon II has been held to 49 and 41 rushing yards over his last two games. QB Alan Bowman can move the ball, but he’s a huge turnover threat (14 interceptions last year) and could struggle against Utah’s opportunistic defense. Take the Utes at -1.5.

Miami is likely the best non-SEC team besides Ohio State. QB Cam Ward’s electric start has him in contention for the Heisman Trophy, while his team is averaging 6.0 yards per carry.

South Florida gave Alabama a scare and won its other games, but that isn’t enough to convince us. They’re 80th in net EPA per play and 87th in yards per play, so they’ll be in trouble once their turnover luck (+2.5 per game) runs out. The ‘Canes at -16.5 is a strong play.

Tennessee—not Texas, Georgia or Ohio State—has the best net EPA per play in the country and is top-two on both sides of the ball. Quarterback Nico Iamaleava’s lack of experience hasn’t prevented him from showcasing his elite ability, and the Vols already smacked a ranked NC State team 51-10.

Although Oklahoma is 3-0, it barely survived Houston and hasn’t gotten more than 200 yards passing in a game. The Vols need to control the line of scrimmage, and if they do, Tennessee -6.5 is the way to go.

Nebraska has stormed back into national prominence thanks to Matt Rhule’s coaching prowess, a tough-nosed identity and the talents of freshman QB Dylan Raiola. The Cornhuskers haven’t allowed more than 10 points in a game and are fourth in average time of possession (excluding overtime).

Illinois’ best win was a 23-17 victory against Kansas, though they haven’t faced a team of Nebraska’s caliber. They don’t match up well in the trenches and also aren’t explosive enough to hold the Cornhuskers at bay, so we’re leaning Nebraska -8.5.

The Cougars got their first win of the season in a 33-7 blowout against their arch rival Rice Owls. Their success on the ground (237 yards, three touchdowns) complimented a defense that has played very well and only gave up 16 points to Oklahoma.

Cincinnati nearly beat Pittsburgh 28-27 two weeks ago and is coming off a 27-16 win against Miami (Ohio). They average 6.2 yards per carry and haven’t thrown a pick, but their defense has been special, which is why we believe Houston’s D can help them cover the +5.5.

WVU had a 10-point lead over Pitt with just over three minutes remaining last week before throwing the game away. Their performances haven’t been anything to write home about, but they just scored 34 on Pitt’s defense and have been successful running the ball.

Sadness turned to misery as the Jayhawks followed a loss to Illinois two weeks ago with a loss against UNLV last week. Jalon Daniels has struggled without Andy Kotelnicki calling the plays and they just gave up 181 rushing yards to the Rebels. Think about WVU -2.5 here.

Kentucky was only two points away from upsetting Georgia last week. That said, they’re 106th in points and 121st in yards per game and don’t look comfortable whenever they’re met with any level of resistance.

Ohio covered a 17.5-point line against Syracuse in its 38-22 Week 1 loss and has won two games since then. Kentucky’s offensive ineptitude makes us think Ohio +19.5 is the smart play.

Colorado State came up flat in a 28-9 rivalry loss to Colorado last week. Shedeur Sanders taunted QB Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi and likely lit a fire under a team that is physical and can be dangerous when playing against lesser teams.

UTEP is still looking for its first win of the season after losses to Nebraska, Southern Utah and Liberty. They have as many passing touchdowns as interceptions (four), average three yards per carry and are 100th in yards allowed per play. Look for a rebound and take Colorado State -9.5.

Ohio State is 2-0 with a combined score of 108-6. Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson have nearly 300 rushing yards between them and both averaged at least 7.3 yards per carry. The Buckeyes have yet to do anything wrong.

Marshall played a solid first half of football against Virginia Tech two weeks ago but still lost by 17. Charles Huff can produce strong defensive fronts but won’t have the horses to compete here, so Ohio State -39.5 is our best bet.

Quinn Ewers is out for this game, which leaves Arch Manning to take over as the Longhorns’ starting quarterback. Manning produced five total touchdowns in less than three quarters against UTSA last week and gets to play with the nation’s current best team.

It’s hard to view UL Monroe as anything other than another team on Texas’ schedule. They’re 2-0 but haven’t faced a team better than UAB. However, Texas may play more conservatively to avoid another QB injury. The backdoor is open and we’ll take UL Monroe +44.5.

Ole Miss is eighth in scoring and third in yards per play. They also held Wake Forest to 311 total yards and forced three turnovers last week.

Three games produced three different results for GA Southern. They scored 45 points in a loss to Boise State, beat Nevada on the road and blew out South Carolina State. We see them scoring a few points and covering +35.5.

Mizzou is balanced on both sides of the ball and has already forced four interceptions and seven sacks in three games. They had a close call with a well-coached Boston College team last week but ran 43 times for 176 yards and controlled the clock to secure the win.

Vanderbilt offset an impressive Week 1 win over Virginia Tech with a terrible 36-32 loss to Georgia State last week. Their offense and quarterback Diego Pavia are limited and will likely struggle against Missouri’s defense. Take Mizzou -21.5.

Penn State scored 34 points in each of its first two games against West Virginia and Bowling Green, though their defense did not look like one of the nation’s best. That’s a problem for them moving forward, especially when they face bigger teams.

Kent State just lost 71-0 to Tennessee and lost its other P4 game to Pittsburgh, 55-24. They have very little chance of winning or even remaining competitive in this game, but we still like Kent State to cover +48.5 until Penn State’s defense shows up.

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