College Football Week 13: Best Spread Bets

Indiana has the third-ranked offense in EPA per play and is undefeated, though it has yet to play a ranked team. The Hoosiers are explosive and give up just 15 points per game (seventh in FBS) but have not played a team with Ohio State’s speed or physicality.

The Buckeyes are one point away from being undefeated, have an outstanding rushing attack and are arguably the most balanced team in the nation. That said, their pass rush can disappear in big games.

Indiana’s been impressive thus far but may struggle to cover +12.5 in its toughest test of the season.

Wake Forest has shown promise this year but gave up 77 points over its last two games. The Demon Deacons average just 3.8 yards per carry and have nearly as many interceptions (12) as passing touchdowns (15).

Miami had a bye last week following its first loss of the season to Georgia Tech. While the loss came at an inopportune time, the rest and added motivation should be good for a Hurricanes team that came dangerously close to losing several times earlier in the season.

That said, Miami isn’t as dominant as its ranking suggests, making Wake +23.5 a viable play.

Ole Miss put itself in the good graces of the CFP committee with its win over Georgia two weeks ago. The Rebels are fourth in net EPA per play and are coming off a bye, which is a big advantage this late in the season.

Florida played well in two of its last three games and freshman QB D.J. Lagway is a big play waiting to happen. The Gators’ defense is suspect, however, as they’re 88th in yards allowed per pass (7.7).

This could be a nice spot to take the points with Florida in a high-scoring game.

UMass (2-8) just fired its head coach and sent his replacement to the slaughter. Interim head coach Shane Montgomery will try to give the Minutemen a spark in a brutal road matchup against Georgia this week.

Carson Beck and the Bulldogs’ offense had their best performance of the year last Saturday in a home win against No. 7 Tennessee. Their defense showed up in a big spot yet again, and they now face an inferior opponent after spending the entire season playing against national championship contenders.

An early lead could result in Georgia pulling its starters early, so getting UMass at +42.5 could be a steal.

UTEP’s two wins this season are against Florida International and Kennesaw State. The Miners are 112th in average scoring margin (-11.3) despite playing one of the worst schedules in the country. Now they’ll face a Tennessee team with an elite defense and a unique, up-tempo offense.

Volunteers QB Nico Iamaleava was excellent against non-P4 teams early in the season before coming back down to earth. This type of matchup should be perfect for him to lead a ton of scoring drives, making Tennessee -41.5 an interesting play.

The defining mark of a championship team is being able to win games while not playing your best, and Colorado has shown that. Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter no longer have to win the game themselves thanks to the defensive line’s drastic improvement, and the Buffaloes are clicking after four straight conference wins.

Kansas handed BYU its first loss of the season last week and has now beaten back-to-back undefeated conference opponents. Quarterback Jalon Daniels is a true playmaker with his arm and his legs, but the Jayhawks’ defense really struggles.

Sanders has a chance to dominate and help Colorado cover.

For whatever reason, Kentucky plays better against ranked SEC contenders than it does everyone else. The Wildcats have little offense to speak of but are strong on defense, particularly on the defensive line.

Texas beat Arkansas 20-10 last week and has loads of impressive metrics, but it hasn’t played very stiff competition. The Longhorns have an average point differential of +25.1, but Kentucky’s defense and success in big games should be enough to cover.

Penn State has one of the country’s highest average yards per play and has shown its defensive mettle in priority matchups like its loss to Ohio State. The Nittany Lions won their last two games by 68 combined points and will secure a ticket to the CFP if they win out.

Minnesota’s impressive play from the beginning of the season is nowhere to be found now, as the Golden Gophers fell to Rutgers 26-19 their last time out. They have a physically imposing defense but are inefficient through the air and will struggle to keep pace if Penn State starts airing it out.

Look for the Nittany Lions to cover.

A loss here would likely eliminate Notre Dame from the CFP bracket after its Week 2 loss to Northern Illinois earlier in the year. The Fighting Irish have won eight straight games since that catastrophe, are exceptional at defending the pass and only give up 3.5 yards per carry (23rd).

Army’s heavy run-first system and unique style can confuse opponents, but the Black Hawks haven’t beaten Notre Dame since 1958. The Fighting Irish are the better team and should cover.

Alabama is one of five two-loss SEC teams clamoring for a spot in the CFP. The Crimson Tide’s loss to Vanderbilt was unexpected, but they were at their best when needed against Georgia and LSU.

Oklahoma is phenomenal at defending the run but doesn’t excel at anything else. The Sooners are only 1-5 against SEC opponents and have scored more than 14 points just once in their last five outings.

It’s unlikely that Alabama will lose, but Oklahoma’s defense could help cover.

Nothing says SEC scheduling like Texas A&M annihilating New Mexico State 38-3 in mid-November. That said, the Aggies are a strong defensive team and run the ball well, particularly with freshman QB Marcel Reed under center.

Auburn is only 1-5 against the SEC but was within 10 points of Arkansas, Oklahoma, Missouri and Vanderbilt. A&M is better than all of those teams, however, and Mike Elko has proven himself to be a great head coach.

Auburn has no business being this close in the spread.

Ashton Jeanty is averaging 189.3 rushing yards per game and 7.4 yards per carry for Boise State, giving the Broncos a consistent source of offense to support a porous secondary that’s 106th in passing yards allowed per attempt (8.1).

Wyoming has just two wins and has suffered double-digit losses in six of its eight defeats. The Cowboys have allowed the fourth-most rushing yards per attempt (5.9) in the country, making this a prime matchup for Jeanty.

Jeanty wants the Heisman and could single-handedly propel Boise State to cover the spread.

It’s been a topsy-turvy season for UNLV, but the Rebels are 8-2 and haven’t lost by more than five points. Hajj-Malik Williams is running the offense well, and the defense is solid against the run.

If you haven’t been paying attention, it may surprise you to hear that San Jose State has the nation’s leading receiver (Nick Nash) and 13th-leading receiver (Justin Lockhart). The Spartans have a surprisingly awesome passing game, and corner DJ Harvey has been solid on the outside.

This line is too lopsided to comfortably lay the points on UNLV, so take SJSU.

BYU suffered its first loss of the season last week and could be in line for another defeat this week. The Cougars’ offense can be effective but is totally reliant on their QB, and their defense has had a few disappointing performances.

Coach Kenny Dillingham has done a tremendous job for Arizona State. He has the Sun Devils at 8-2 with two wins against ranked opponents, including their last game against No. 16 Kansas State.

Arizona State might not have a true knockout punch, but it’s well-coached and extremely well-rounded, making the Sun Devils a solid pick at -3.5.

Iowa State was 7-0 just a few weeks ago, but now its season feels different at 8-2. The Cyclones took down Cincinnati last week but are terrible at defending the run, allowing 5.3 yards per carry (115th).

Utah’s offense has gone completely dormant, which is why the Utes went from a conference contender to 4-6. If they couldn’t get the job done in either of the last two weeks, it’s difficult to imagine them having anything left.

Take Iowa State on the road.