College Football Week 5: Best Spread Bets

For the first time since 2008, the Texas Longhorns are the top-ranked team in the country. They leapfrogged Georgia – the preseason national championship favorite – in this week’s AP poll.

The Longhorns covered a 41.5-point spread against UL-Monroe last week despite Arch Manning throwing two interceptions. They are the top-ranked team in the country for the second straight week and have immense ability on both sides of the ball.

Mississippi State has lost three straight games, including a 45-28 contest to Florida last week. The Bulldogs can move the ball but are a terrible 105th in yards per play allowed, so we like Texas to cover -37.5 against them.

Ole Miss is off to a hot start, ranking third in average scoring margin (+40.7) going 4-0 against the spread. The Rebels haven’t allowed more than 13 points in a game and have one of the top Heisman candidates, Jaxson Dart, under center.

Kentucky’s biggest achievement was its one-point loss to Georgia in Week 3, a game that the Wildcats had a real shot to win in the fourth quarter. Their anemic offense is offset by a defense that ranks 11th in points allowed per game, though Kentucky should still struggle to cover the spread.

Michigan State is coming off a tough 23-19 loss to a surprising Boston College team. The Spartans are fourth-worst in turnover margin but rank 19th in yards allowed per carry (3.1), which gives them a chance against Ohio State’s run-first offense.

It’s hard to find a team that’s looked better than the Buckeyes thus far. Granted, their toughest opponent was Marshall, but they have a plus-137 point differential through three games and look like serious national championship contenders.

Nonetheless, the Michigan State spread could be a smart play because of its run defense and preparedness after facing more difficult opponents.

OC Andy Kotelnicki was brought in to add explosiveness to Penn State’s offense. He’s done just that, as the Nittany Lions rank sixth in yards per play (8.0). Meanwhile, the defense pitched a shutout against Kent State last week and seems to have recovered since allowing 27 points to Bowling Green in Week 2.

Illinois soared to 19th in the national rankings after a dramatic 31-24 overtime win at Nebraska last week. Luke Altmyer is having an outstanding season for the Fighting Illini, and their physical defense has enough juice to make Illinois +17.5 an attractive play on Saturday.

Assuming the line holds, Alabama will kick off on Saturday as a home underdog for the first time since Nov. 3, 2007. Jalen Milroe looks more comfortable making plays from the pocket, the Crimson Tide average 238 rushing yards per game and the defense is third in yards allowed per play.

The injury bug has already hit Georgia hard, as QB Carson Beck has a sprained AC joint and guard Tate Ratledge is out with ankle and knee issues. The Bulldogs barely squeaked past Kentucky in Week 3 and need a major recalibration on offense.

With Kalen DeBoer’s track record, this could be a spot for Alabama to upset.

Oregon showed signs of improvement in its 49-14 win over Oregon State after two uninspiring performances to start the season. The Ducks were off last week and will be better for it if they find the right combination of offensive linemen to protect Dillon Gabriel.

UCLA has already been blown out by Indiana and LSU and could easily fall to 1-4 with games against Oregon and Penn State approaching. The loss of defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn to USC will make it even more difficult for the Bruins to cover.

Cam Rising was a late scratch against Oklahoma State last week, but Utah still found a way to pull out a 22-19 victory. With Rising set to return and their running committee managing 249 rushing yards last week, the Utes are in a strong position to extend their perfect 4-0 record.

Arizona is very top-heavy and was exposed in a 31-7 loss to Kansas State its last time out. Utah’s defense hasn’t played its best yet but can still help cover -8.5 if it can slow down QB Noah Fifita and WR Tetairoa McMillan.

Notre Dame has stacked two blowout wins since its shocking loss to Northern Illinois in Week 2. The Irish still struggle if forced to throw the ball while playing from behind, but their strong defense (seventh in points allowed per game) will keep them around more often than not.

Louisville is well-rounded, ranking top 20 in points scored, points allowed and turnover margin despite not getting much pressure on opposing quarterbacks. The Cardinals are fifth in yards per play (8.3) largely because of quarterback Tyler Shough, who is playing well enough to help them cover +6.5.

Last week’s 38-9 loss to BYU soured the image of what appeared to be a great K-State team, one that had just blown out Arizona the week before. The Wildcats run the ball on nearly 60 percent of plays and have already racked up 961 rushing yards on 6.5 yards per carry through four games.

Oklahoma State blew a golden opportunity against Utah sans Cam Rising last week, making this a priority Big 12 matchup for them. Alan Bowman is highly experienced and is having a solid year under center for the Cowboys, but their defense will struggle to contain the run, making Kansas State -4.5 a strong play.

Colorado was one Hail Mary away from dropping to 2-2, including 0-2 against P4 opponents. Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter are two of the best players in the sport, but despite improvements in the run defense, the Buffaloes still struggle to stop the pass.

UCF beat TCU by one point last week despite giving up 402 yards and four touchdowns through the air. The Knights rank second in rushing yards per game (336.5) and 14th in average time of possession, but as strong as they’ve been, that style will make it hard to blow out Colorado and cover -14.5.

Miami QB Cam Ward had a “slow” game against USF and still finished 24-for-34 with 404 passing yards, three touchdowns and an interception. The Hurricanes are strong in the trenches, average more than six yards per carry and are ninth in points allowed per game (10.7).

Kyron Drones’ regression and Virginia Tech’s inability to get important stops have made them one of the biggest disappointments of the first third of the season. Short of some familial magic (Drones and Ward are cousins), Miami -17.5 is an enticing opportunity.

Houston’s defense has been quietly impressive, ranking 38th in defensive EPA per play. Unfortunately for the Cougars, quarterback Donovan Smith has only 610 passing yards, two touchdowns and four interceptions in four games. Houston’s running attack also averages a pitiful 3.5 yards per carry.

Iowa State is terrific on defense and fairly strong on offense but doesn’t score a ton of points (21 or fewer in two of three games). The Cougars have a sneaky strong chance to cover if they can limit the Cyclones’ offense.

LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier might not be Joe Burrow or Jayden Daniels, but he ranks 13th in QBR and leads Division I with 13 touchdown passes. The Fighting Tigers haven’t found much success on the ground, however, while their defense is poor and just lost linebacker Harold Perkins Jr. to a torn ACL.

South Alabama crushed Appalachian State 48-14 last week after hanging 87 points on NW State the previous week. The Jaguars will struggle to keep LSU out of the end zone, but they can move the ball and should have enough wiggle room to cover +20.5.

SMU’s high-powered offense was stymied by BYU two weeks ago but responded with a 66-42 win against TCU last week. The Mustangs’ defense is average, but that’s not an issue if the team they’re playing can’t score on every drive like they can.

Florida State got its first win of the season last week with a 14-9 victory against Cal. The Seminoles didn’t impress in any phase and gave up 410 yards of total offense, however, and they are at risk of being blown out on Saturday night.

Take SMU to cover -6.5.

UConn crushed FAU 48-14 last week and is now 2-2 with its balanced roster. The Huskies prefer to attack teams on the ground but give up too many explosive plays to their opponents.

Buffalo went on the road to beat No. 23 NIU last week as a 12.5-point underdog, making this a potential letdown spot for the Bulls. They’re only 81st in rushing yards allowed per game and average the 10th-fewest yards per play (3.8), negating UConn’s issues stopping big plays.

Look for the Huskies to cover -5.5.