College Football Week 6: Best Spread Bets

Oregon has finally figured out its offensive line and is playing like the team it was expected to be. The Ducks beat Oregon State and UCLA by an average of 28 points in their last two games as quarterback Dillon Gabriel completed more than 81% of his passes with nine touchdowns and just one interception.

Michigan State entered last week with a solid run defense but allowed Ohio State to gain 185 yards on 35 carries. The Spartans also struggled to move the ball and didn’t produce one sack, so there’s a chance they could suffer another blowout loss and allow Oregon to cover the spread.

Penn State has long been a solid team on the periphery of national championship contention because it lacked an explosive offense, which was evident during its 21-7 win against No. 19 Illinois last week.

UCLA is just 89th in scoring defense (30.8 points allowed per game) following the departure of defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn in the offseason and its offense struggles to reach 14 points per game. That said, the Nittany Lions’ run-first style will make it hard for them to cover -26.5.

The 4-1 Aggies are riding a four-game win streak after taking down Arkansas at home last week. Freshman Marcel Reed barely completes half of his passes, but he has eight total touchdowns and no interceptions while Texas A&M averages 5.5 yards per carry.

It’s hard to believe Georgia and Missouri are in the same conference when comparing their schedules. The Tigers’ national ranking overstates their on-field ability, and this is a prime spot for the Aggies to cover -2.5 and expose Mizzou to the college football world.

The Buckeyes haven’t done much wrong this season and rank highly in many categories, including average scoring margin (plus-42). Their start to conference play began with a 38-7 rout of Michigan State last week that could have been more lopsided if they hadn’t taken their foot off the gas.

This Iowa team has more offensive potential than years past, though it’s still far from a juggernaut. The Hawkeyes’ defense is solid but not excellent, so Ohio State covering the spread looks like a strong play.

Vanderbilt had a strong start to the year, was upset by Georgia State in Week 3, and then almost took down Mizzou before falling short in overtime last week. Diego Pavia controls the offense through the air and the ground in an option-based offense, while the defense is 91st in points per game and 113th in third-down conversion percentage allowed.

Alabama manhandled Georgia out of the gates last week and showed resilience in holding off its rival’s miraculous comeback. Kalen DeBoer has found ways to get the best out of Jalen Milroe in ways that Nick Saban couldn’t, which is why the Crimson Tide are 3-1 against the spread and in a favorable spot to cover again.

The Vols switched their approach and went away from their downfield passing attack to drain the clock in a 25-15 win against Oklahoma last week. Despite that, they are highly explosive (second in scoring at 49 points per game) and only give up 2.8 yards per play – the fewest in the nation.

Meanwhile, the Razorbacks are 65th in scoring offense and scoring defense. They turn the ball over more than they take it away and just lost a game to Texas A&M that they dominated on the stat sheet, which is an ominous sign. Lay the points with Tennessee here.

Who needs Michael Penix Jr. or Kalen DeBoer? The 3-2 Huskies are home favorites in a rematch of last year’s national championship game despite falling to Rutgers 21-18 last week. QB Will Rogers (1,354 yards, 10 touchdowns) is having a great year, while Washington’s defense ranks ninth in yards allowed per play.

Michigan’s pivot to Alex Orji at quarterback reflects a realignment with its institutional values. The Wolverines are built on physicality and want to run the air out of the ball while suffocating their opponents on defense. The margins are narrow, but defense and the run game travel, making Michigan +2.5 a tempting play.

Cal’s first trip to the East Coast as a member of the ACC ended in a 14-9 defeat to Florida State as its offense sputtered despite holding the Seminoles to under 300 total yards of offense. The Golden Bears have picked up a few solid wins but also haven’t put anything overly impressive on paper.

Miami was lucky it got bailed out by the referees in what was almost a loss to Virginia Tech last week. Cam Ward will be the best player on the field, and the Hurricanes just need stops from a defense ranked 18th in points allowed to cover -10.5.

The ongoing NIL situation at UNLV is one of the most captivating storylines of the college football season. Senior QB Hajj-Malik Williams notched four total touchdowns in his first start of the season as the Rebels improved to 4-0 with a dominant performance against Fresno State.

Kyle McCord’s sudden interception problem is a concern for Syracuse. The senior threw two picks in his last two games against Stanford and Holy Cross, though the Orange are still 24th in yards per play and have the fourth-highest third-down conversion percentage.

UNLV scores more points per yard gained than any team in the country, but that luck should regress to the mean and help Syracuse +6.5 become a viable option.

UAB hasn’t won since Week 1 and is coming off a 41-18 blowout loss to Navy. The Blazers are 108th in scoring, 115th in points allowed and 127th in average turnover margin, which is a recipe for disaster.

Tulane won’t blow anyone away with its metrics, but it’s riding high after a 45-10 win against USF. The Green Wave run the ball effectively and have a positive turnover differential, so Tulane -14.5 may be worth the juice.

Northwestern’s football team, much like its basketball team, does not believe in scoring many points. The Wildcats are 122nd in scoring (12.7 points per game) and are around the national average in defensive EPA per play.

Indiana is flourishing under new head coach Curt Cignetti. The Hoosiers are 5-0 with an explosive passing game (10.9 yards per attempt) and a stout defense (15.5 points per game – 15th).

This one could take a while to get rolling, but Indiana’s offensive firepower makes it a strong candidate to cover -13.5.

South Carolina’s strength is on the interior of its defensive line. The Gamecocks got last weekend off and need to prove they figured out a remedy to their sputtering offense, which is only 78th in yards per play.

The Rebels were shocked at home by Kentucky last week and need a win to settle themselves. They started the year incredibly hot but folded as soon as they faced stiff competition. They’ll probably want to eliminate as much risk as they can to find another win.

Watch for South Carolina +9.5 here.

Georgia was initially overwhelmed against Alabama but showed true championship grit, battling back to take a fourth-quarter lead before ultimately losing. The Bulldogs manufactured the explosive plays they’ve been lacking all season and will get even better when their injured players return later in the year.

Auburn nearly took down Georgia in a massive upset last year. This time, the Tigers are coming off two straight conference losses and have a quarterback in Payton Thorne who has six interceptions in 102 attempts.

The Bulldogs aren’t typically a great team against the spread, but Auburn’s turnover problems make UGA -24.5 an attractive option.

Arizona scored an impressive 23-10 road win against No. 10 Utah a week after getting demolished by No. 14 Kansas State. The Wildcats have star power with QB Noah Fifita and WR Tetarioa McMillan, but their biggest hurdle is finding other contributors on the roster.

The Red Raiders, in true Big 12 fashion, average 39 points per game while giving up 30.3. They are 4-1 with three straight wins and are 14th in defensive EPA per play.

Don’t be surprised if Texas Tech covers the +6.5.

Undefeated Rutgers beat decent Power Four teams Virginia Tech and Washington and now have to go on the road to face Nebraska. The Scarlet Knights have a limited passing game, though they’ve found ways to remain effective both through the air and on the ground while adopting a bend-don’t-break style of defense.

The Cornhuskers started the season on cloud nine until they lost at home in overtime to No. 24 Illinois. They bounced back with an 18-point win against Purdue and will hope to use their physicality and freshman QB Dylan Raiola’s talents to take down the unblemished visitors.

This one should go back and forth, but Nebraska -6.5 seems like a solid play.