College Football Week 7: Best Spread Bets & Picks

The Crimson Tide are looking to bounce back from one of their worst losses in school history to an unranked Vanderbilt team. South Carolina, meanwhile, is 0-2 against ranked teams and isn’t outstanding anywhere besides the defensive line.

Last week’s egregious loss to Vandy gives Kalen DeBoer an opportunity to prove what type of coach he is and what kind of culture he’s building in Tuscaloosa. A blowout win certainly won’t erase the loss, but it will show that he can motivate a team to respond.

We’d lean toward that happening and ‘Bama covering the spread.

Clemson has figured out its offense in the month since its Week 1 blowout loss to Georgia and now has Cade Klubnik playing like a Heisman Trophy candidate. The defense is still a far cry from its usual standard, however, and needs to improve for this team to win the ACC.

A 34-30 win over NC State last week was Wake’s best game of the season and ended a three-game skid. The Deacs are a terrible 111th in defensive EPA per play but also move the ball well, particularly with running back Demond Clairborne.

Wake Forest +20.5 is a viable play.

A deep-rooted rivalry matchup awaits Texas as it travels to Oklahoma for the Red River Rivalry. The Longhorns were off last week but have arguably the most well-rounded team in the country, ranking seventh in scoring average (45 points per game) and second in fewest points allowed per game (seven).

Freshman QB Michael Hawkins Jr. has made plays during his six quarters as the Sooners’ starting QB, but their offense still has major issues. Their defense is elite, but they were lucky not to lose to Auburn last week.

Nonetheless, look for Oklahoma’s excellent pass rush to throw Quinn Ewers out of rhythm in his first game back from injury and for OU to cover +14.5.

Ohio State takes the nation’s best average scoring margin on the road for the game of the week against Oregon. The Buckeyes are fifth in yards per rush attempt, have outstanding wide receivers and give up the fewest points per game (6.8), though they haven’t faced a ranked opponent yet.

Oregon has been great for three games since it figured out its offensive line personnel combinations. The concern is that Dillon Gabriel threw two awful interceptions against Michigan State, though his defense (11th in EPA per play) bailed him out.

This one should be close, but Ohio State -3.5 looks like the better option.

Penn State has made a living off of climbing the national rankings only to disappoint in the biggest moments. New offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki has added explosiveness to the offense (10th in yards per play), while the defense gives up 11.4 points per game (sixth-fewest in Division I).

This is a bad matchup for USC, which already lost to a similar team (Michigan). It will be tough for the Trojans to match the Nittany Lions’ physicality, though teams traveling multiple time zones have also performed horribly historically.

This game could swing back and forth, but we believe USC +3.5 is the most viable option.

Georgia is only 1-4 against the spread this year and is 6-12-1 ATS since the start of last season. Carson Beck has found ways to push the ball down the field, but the running game’s continued inability to establish control limits their offensive potential.

Mississippi State has lost four straight games, including last week’s 35-13 loss to Texas, and won’t have the home-field cowbells to spur them on. They average just 3.5 yards per carry and are 119th of 134 teams in points allowed per game (37.8).

Still, this line looks like it may be too large for UGA to cover.

LSU can completely change the narrative with a win this weekend, as its best result thus far is a 36-33 victory against South Carolina. The Tigers have a great offensive line and a strong quarterback in Garrett Nussmeier, though their defense is underperforming yet again.

This is a crucial matchup for an Ole Miss squad that unexpectedly fell to Kentucky at home two weeks ago but trounced South Carolina 27-3 last week. Jaxson Dart is playing like one of the best QBs in the country, the running game is effective and the defense is allowing just nine points per game.

Taking all of that into consideration, Ole Miss -3.5 makes a lot of sense.

This is an important week for Tennessee, which dropped from No. 4 to No. 8 in the AP rankings after losing to unranked Arkansas. The Volunteers only average 19.5 points per game in conference play compared to 63.7 in non-conference matchups but still allow the fifth-fewest points per game.

Florida’s brutal schedule was a big offseason story, but the Gators are 3-2 and have won two straight games. They’ve won (and lost) in a variety of ways and will need QB Graham Mertz to make plays against a defense that gives up just 1.9 yards per rush attempt – the fewest in the nation.

Florida +15.5 is a sensible play here.

Is Coach Deion “Prime” Sanders in the national Coach of the Year discussion with a win this weekend? Colorado slammed the door on UCF’s elite running game two weeks ago and has shown consistent improvement at positions around its star players, Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter.

Kansas State would be off to a fantastic start were it not for an unexpected 38-9 loss to BYU. The Wildcats beat No. 20 Oklahoma State 42-20 last week and have a do-it-all QB in Avery Johnson who will test the discipline of the Buffs’ defense.

Watch for Colorado +3.5 in this matchup.

Last week’s 21-7 loss to Penn State was Illinois’ first defeat of the year. The Fighting Illini will look to bounce back with QB Luke Altmyer and a defense that’s 16th in points allowed per game (17.8).

Purdue is 1-4, including 0-2 in conference play with losses of 18 and 46 points. The Boilermakers average a decent 4.9 yards per carry but struggle to move the ball through the air and surrender 46 points per game.

Be prepared for Illinois -22.5 to cash in a blowout win.

Everyone’s favorite ACC Classic is back!

Sarcasm aside, 5-0 Pittsburgh hasn’t beaten a ranked team but won one-score games against Cincinnati and West Virginia and just beat North Carolina 34-24. The Panthers play aggressive defense and love to air the ball out with Eli Holstein, who’s averaging 312.8 yards per game and has 15 touchdowns to just three interceptions.

California might be 0-2 against the ACC, but those two losses were a five-point road loss to Florida State and a one-point loss to No. 8 Miami. The Golden Bears move the ball well but didn’t have any answers for Cam Ward last week, and there’s a chance their secondary gives out again and they fail to cover the 2.5 points.

Utah State is on a four-game skid and just fell to Boise State in a game where it trailed 49-17 at halftime. The Aggies’ defense is one of the worst in the nation, and they don’t have a quarterback capable of elevating the offense.

Last week’s thrilling contest against Syracuse marked UNLV’s first loss of the season. This is still an impressive team with impact players in the backfield and a quarterback in Hajj-Malik Williams who registered QBRs of 87.9 and 80.3 in his two games as the Rebels’ starter.

We’d lean toward UNLV -18.5 in this matchup.

It’ll be hard to find a better matchup between two unranked teams this weekend. Iowa’s suffocating defense is looking for any level of support from its offense, which is 84th in yards per play and averages just 10.5 points per game against Big Ten opposition.

Last year’s national runner-ups are 5-1 and just beat No. 10 Michigan 27-17 behind a balanced team effort. Washington doesn’t have a knockout punch, but it doesn’t have many holes and has an experienced quarterback in Will Rogers who threw for 271 yards last week.

Washington +2.5 is a viable bet.

Kentucky has already been the thorn in the side of powerhouse programs such as Georgia and Ole Miss, the latter of which it upset on the road two weeks ago. QB Brock Vandagriff is a virtual non-factor, but the Wildcats’ defense is sixth in EPA per play and shuts down quality opponents.

Vanderbilt’s program-defining win against Alabama last weekend will have this team playing as confident as it ever has. Quarterback Diego Pavia bears a lot of responsibility in an option-heavy offense, but the team has beaten ‘Bama and Virginia Tech and took Missouri to overtime.

Grabbing the Commodores at +13.5 could be a savvy move.

NC State just lost to Wake Forest and was blown off the field against Clemson and Tennessee. The Wolfpack will likely be without starting quarterback Grayson McCall, who suffered a head injury last week, leaving freshman C.J. Bailey to take the snaps.

Syracuse has a dark horse Heisman contender with Kyle McCord under center. The Orange give up a ton of points (29.3 per game – 87th) but have won back-to-back games, and their only loss was to Stanford by two points.

Syracuse -3.5 is a strong play.

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