College Football Week 9: Best Spread Bets

Ashton Jeanty can write another chapter in his Heisman case when Boise State visits the gambling capital of America. The Broncos have had their share of defensive weaknesses, but they held Hawaii to seven points in their last game and have an ultra-efficient offense that ranks ninth in yards per point.

Not to be outdone, UNLV is second in yards per point despite being 59th in red-zone efficiency. These teams are nearly identical in defensive EPA per play, and this should come down to whether the Rebels can maintain their turnover luck.

Boise doesn’t throw a ton and Jeanty hasn’t fumbled this season, so Boise State -3.5 is a strong play.

Nebraska’s tough-nosed mystique was scrubbed away during last week’s 56-7 loss to Indiana. True freshman QB Dylan Raiola has no touchdowns and four interceptions in his last two games and looks like a completely different player compared to how he looked at the start of the year, though the defense is still top-10 in rushing yards allowed per game.

Ohio State was off last week following its one-point road loss to Oregon. Will Howard played a great game under center, but the usually reliable running game failed to hit its season averages.

It’s tough to see the Cornhuskers pulling off an upset, but their run defense should help them hang around and give them a chance to cover +25.5.

Notre Dame has outscored its opponents by an average of 30.2 points since its shocking Week 2 loss to Northern Illinois. Riley Leonard has surpassed 200 passing yards in each of his last two outings, and the Fighting Irish are averaging 5.8 yards per carry behind a great offensive line.

Navy, like Notre Dame, runs the ball at an elite level, averaging six yards per attempt. However, that success has come against much lesser opponents, and the Midshipmen are 69th in defensive EPA per run play.

The Irish just have to follow their usual path to victory on the ground to have a strong shot at covering -13.5.

Illinois cruised past Michigan 21-7 last week but played several close games just before that. Luke Altmyer wasn’t asked to do much last week as the ground game combined for 38 carries and 187 yards, while the defense improved to 31st in average points allowed (21.2).

In a testament to its focus and consistency, Oregon built on its marquee win over Ohio State and shut out Purdue 35-0 on the road last weekend. The Ducks were able to corral OSU’s running game and look the best they have all year on offense, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see them blow out the Fighting Illini.

Missouri is 6-1 but has yet to dominate a P4 opponent. Its defense is nowhere near the level it was last year, while the offense is 53rd in points per game and 64th in yards per play (5.5).

Alabama has serious problems on the defensive side with its young corners and inability to get stops in crucial moments. The offense can be explosive but also looks less consistent with each passing week.

Missouri was overrated to start the year but is well-positioned to cover the +17.5 spread.

It’s time for Steve Sarkisian to earn his paycheck. Texas entered last weekend’s showdown with Georgia ranked first in scoring offense and defense, only to lose 30-15 in a game where UGA’s offense barely got out of second gear.

Vanderbilt’s rise is one of this year’s best stories, as the Commodores have already taken down Alabama and are riding a three-game win streak. They don’t push the ball downfield but are 11th in average time of possession, making this a low-ceiling, high-floor matchup that leans toward Vanderbilt +18.5.

FSU’s nightmare season is now 1-6 after an ugly loss to Duke where the Seminoles gained just 291 yards of total offense. D.J. Uiagalelei was benched three weeks ago, both the offense and defense are outside the top-100 in EPA per play, and nobody seems all that committed to making winning plays.

Miami is lucky to be undefeated at this point after several close run-ins with conference opponents and controversial refereeing decisions. Regardless, Cam Ward has established himself as a top QB prospect for a 7-0 squad.

The Hurricanes gave up 39 points per game to three straight unranked opponents, so be prepared for FSU to cover given the nature of this rivalry matchup.

Drew Allar may have thrown three interceptions last week, but he also notched a career-high in passing yards for a Penn State team that ranks fifth in passing yards per play. The Nittany Lions’ defense ranks seventh in points allowed per game (14.5) and is awesome against the run.

Wisconsin’s offense is nothing to write home about, although running back Tawee Walker ran for over 300 yards in his last two games combined. The Badgers are stingy on defense but gave up an average of 39.5 points to USC and Alabama, making Penn State -6.5 an attractive pick.

Both teams have won six straight games since their opening-week losses to non-conference opponents, putting them in good position to make the SEC Championship Game.

For LSU, the key will be if Garrett Nussmeier can play well against a conference opponent after struggling the last two weeks.

Meanwhile, returning Texas A&M QB Conner Weigman didn’t set the world on fire against Mississippi State last week. The Aggies rank 19th in defensive EPA per play and will test the Tigers’ front line, which gives them a strong chance to cover -1.5 at home.

SMU’s first season in the ACC has produced a 6-1 (3-0) record thus far, with its lone loss coming against undefeated BYU. The Mustangs have an average defense but win lots of high-scoring shootouts and rank 16th in scoring (37.7 points per game).

Duke’s first season of the post-Mike Elko era has been an overwhelming success, with the Blue Devils now 6-1 after taking down Florida State last weekend. They’re inefficient on the ground, but Texas QB transfer Maalik Murphy has carried the offense with 14 passing touchdowns against five interceptions.

That said, Murphy’s completed just 59.1% of his passes and has a 44 QBR (98th in the country), so it could be hard for Duke to keep pace with SMU.

Kansas got back in the win column with a 42-14 blowout against Houston last weekend. The Jayhawks forced four interceptions and held the Cougars under 100 yards rushing, while Jalon Daniels played his second straight great game after a disappointing start to the year.

Kansas State is on a three-game winning streak and dominated West Virginia 45-18 the last time it was on the field. The Wildcats’ 5.8 yards per carry ranks eighth in the nation and makes them a tough matchup for a Kansas defense that ranks 73rd in defensive EPA per rush play.

Kansas State should win, but Daniels’ recent improvement gives the Jayhawks a shot at covering +9.5.

It’s not very often that an unranked team is favored against the No. 11 team in the country. BYU’s surprising run has been powered by QB Jake Retzlaff – who leads the team in passing and rushing – and a defense that allows 20 points per game (25th).

UCF averages the fourth-most rushing yards per game (251.3) and is starting a true freshman QB in Jacurri Brown. Brown struggled passing the ball last week (8-for-20 with two interceptions), but he also ran 13 times for 154 yards and two touchdowns.

This comes down to the Cougars’ ability to control the ground game. Given that BYU is 54th in yards allowed per carry (4.2), this could be the time for the Knights to snap their four-game losing streak.

The reigning national runner-ups may not be in contention for the CFP, but they notched a solid win against Michigan two weeks ago and are 4-3. Washington generated more total offense than Iowa despite losing 40-16 last week and ranks 10th in yards allowed per play (4.4).

Indiana’s remarkable ascension reached new heights last weekend when it demolished Nebraska 56-7. The Hoosiers haven’t won by fewer than 14 points all year and have the second-ranked offense in EPA per play, making Indiana -6.5 a viable option.

West Virginia averaged just 17.5 points in its last two games, both against ranked conference opponents. The Mountaineers lean into their strong run game and have three players with over 400 rushing yards, but their defense is 103rd in yards allowed per play and 114th in yards per point allowed.

Arizona has been ravaged by injuries, resulting in three straight losses. The Wildcats haven’t scored more than 23 points since their season opener and are fairly dependent on their star players to carry them, but WVU’s defense is so porous that it may still be worth taking Arizona -4.5.

Utah is on a three-game losing streak and is reeling from the loss of Cam Rising. Its defense has also wildly underperformed up to this point, although it gave up just 13 points to TCU last weekend.

Zeon Chriss is expected to be back under center for Houston after leaving last week’s game against Kansas with an injury. Chriss electrified the Cougars’ stagnant offense in their 20-19 win over TCU earlier this year in his first start of the season.

Neither team has been consistent, but Houston looks like a safer bet.

Photo by Gaelen Morse/Getty Images.