Betting Preview
Game Details
- Who: Colorado Buffaloes at Oregon Ducks
- When: Saturday, Sept. 23
- Time: 12:30 p.m. PST/ 3:30 p.m. EST
- Where: Autzen Stadium (Eugene, OR)
Betting Odds Summary
- Moneyline: Buffaloes +625, Ducks -950
- Spread: Buffaloes +21 (-110), Ducks -21 (-110)
- Total: Over/Under 70.5 (-108/-112)
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. Subject to change.
If you’re a Colorado Buffaloes fan, there’s good and bad news. The good news is that Colorado escaped with a narrow double-overtime home win over in-state rival Colorado State last weekend, securing the Centennial Cup in the “Rocky Mountain Showdown” again. Further, the Buffaloes’ national championship hopes are still alive, as they currently have the 21st-best futures odds (+11000).
Even if the Buffs don’t pull off one of the most unexpected title runs in the history of collegiate sports, they have received a substantial amount of interest from top recruits and just set the record for most viewers (9.3 million) of a late-night college football game on ESPN. This program went from a non-contending afterthought to the biggest show in college football virtually overnight. There is plenty of good news for Colorado and its fans, both old and new.
However, as mentioned, there is also bad news for the Buffs. They are entering arguably the most brutal stretch of their schedule and will be without Heisman candidate and star cornerback/wide receiver Travis Hunter for at least the next three weeks after he took a late hit in their last game.
Additionally, Colorado had a few substantial weaknesses exposed in its last game against the Rams, including its play in the trenches and overall defensive talent without Hunter in the secondary. Can the Buffs hang on and knock off Oregon on the road while Hunter is recovering?
Moneyline
Colorado’s moneyline odds (+625) indicate that it is a heavy underdog on the road against No. 10 Oregon (-900.) As mentioned above, the Buffs will be without one of their best players in Hunter, a rare two-way player who was performing at the level of a true Heisman candidate before suffering a late, unnecessary hit early in their last game against Colorado State.
Now, Colorado has to go into Eugene and knock off one of the best teams in the nation. The Ducks have also started the season 3-0 behind star quarterback Bo Nix, who has the eighth-best Heisman odds. Nix has thrown for 893 yards (16th-most in the nation) through his first three games with an elite completion rate of 77.6%.
How will the Buffs’ defense fare against the best offense they have faced yet?
The bottom line is that Colorado could struggle. Hunter’s presence would at least make Nix think twice about throwing it in his direction, but the field will look a million miles wide now. Nix is a highly talented and efficient quarterback with plenty of weapons, including Troy Franklin, who has already put together a few huge outings in Oregon’s first three games. Together, they form one of the strongest duos in all of college football.
The trenches are another area where the Buffs could struggle. Despite having a mobile quarterback, Colorado ranks 117th in QB sack percentage. Shedeur Sanders can get himself into trouble on occasion by trying to make “hero plays,” but the offensive line is the culprit of most of their issues.
Meanwhile, the Ducks’ offensive line has the seventh-best QB sacked percentage, indicating much more stability for Bo Nix to operate in the pocket. Even on the road against Texas Tech, Oregon only allowed one sack.
The Ducks should take care of business at home against a short-handed Buffs squad.
Point Spread
After playing down to their competition or, perhaps, being heavily overvalued by the public, Colorado is a 21-point road underdog on the spread against Oregon.
This isn’t the first time the Buffs are facing long odds this year. As a substantial underdog against TCU in Week 1, Colorado won outright and easily covered the enormous spread.
Can the Buffs keep this game competitive, or will Nix and co. run away with their first ranked win of the 2023 season?
Sanders’ talent alone can keep this game within relative striking distance, especially with Xavier Weaver, Jimmy Horn Jr. and Michael Harrison (two touchdown catches last week) as his surrounding weapons.
The Ducks showed a bit of vulnerability in their narrow Week 2 win over Texas Tech. They were only up one point with just under a minute remaining, and the Red Raiders had marched to nearly the 50-yard line. Luckily, they got a hit on the quarterback and the ball came up well short of the target, right into the hands of linebacker Jeffrey Bassa.
Oregon should win, but Colorado has enough firepower to hang a considerable number on this Ducks defense, allowing for a closer final margin than the spread indicates.
Over/Under
The Over/Under for this matchup between two extremely explosive offenses is hovering around 70.5 points, depending on the sportsbook. Sanders and Nix are two of the most dynamic quarterbacks in the nation, and the sportsbooks are expecting a shootout in the form of roughly 10 touchdowns.
The Over could be attractive despite the general unattractiveness of such a high point total. For one, the Buffaloes love shootouts, as evidenced by their Week 1 and Week 3 performances. They believe their offense can outscore their opponents and so far, they have been right.
Colorado ranks near the bottom of the nation (125th out of 133 teams) in rushing yards per game (tackles for loss and sacks included). It is crystal clear that the Buffs will lean on the passing game from this point forward in the season.
A similar story could be told about the Ducks, who rank 52nd in the nation in rushing yards per game but have played against Portland State and Hawaii in two of their first three games. In the one competitive game it played against Texas Tech, Oregon was outrushed, totaling just 113 rushing yards.
Despite having an obvious and substantial advantage in the trenches against Hawaii and Portland State, the Ducks are only averaging 3.8 rushing yards per attempt. Colorado might have weak offensive and defensive lines, too, but it should put up better resistance than Oregon’s other opponents. The Ducks will also look to pass a lot in what will be an epic shootout.
Player Prop
Nix has already started to put together an awe-inspiring 2023 campaign, logging the 16th-most passing yards, sixth-highest completion percentage and 14th-most passing touchdowns in the nation through Oregon’s first three games.
Don’t expect Nix to slow down any time soon, especially against a mediocre (without Hunter) Colorado defense. His player prop line is at 2.5 passing touchdowns, and the Over appears to be a feasible play.
The Buffs rank 114th out of 133 FBS teams in total yards allowed to opponents and will be even more exposed with Hunter in the secondary. Without him, Colorado was absolutely carved up by Colorado State quarterback Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi, a freshman who had only appeared in three total games before being thrust into a nationally televised game. He threw for 367 yards and three touchdowns.
Fowler-Nicolosi had a ton of help from star receiver Tory Horton (16 receptions for 133 yards and one touchdown) and tight end Dallin Holker (six receptions for 109 yards and two touchdowns). However, Nix has even more talent to lean on at the skill positions and is in his fifth collegiate season.
Experience matters in key games between ranked opponents. Nix has the poise, talent and supporting cast to have a monstrous game.
Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images
