Betting Preview
Game Details
- Who: Kentucky Wildcats at Georgia Bulldogs
- When: Saturday, Oct. 7 (Week 6)
- Time: 7:00 p.m. EST
- Where: Sanford Stadium (Athens, GA)
Betting Odds Summary
- Moneyline: Wildcats +425, Bulldogs -575
- Spread: Wildcats +14.5 (-110), Bulldogs -14.5 (-110)
- Total: Over/Under 47.5 (-110/-110)
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. Subject to change.
Two undefeated (5-0) SEC squads will battle on Saturday when the No. 20 Kentucky Wildcats travel to Athens for a showdown with Georgia, the No. 1 team in the nation.
The Bulldogs are fresh off a narrow victory over another SEC foe, Auburn, who took them down to the wire, ultimately losing by just one score.
The Tigers held a 3-1 record entering the game but were unranked in the AP Poll, leaving fans and experts alike with more questions than answers about this Georgia team.
After five weeks, the Bulldogs are still unbeaten. However, they’ve had two bouts that finished a little too close for comfort, including a home game versus South Carolina (unranked, 2-3 overall) and a road game against Auburn (unranked, 3-2 overall).
Meanwhile, Kentucky’s quest to build a football program that can rival its basketball program is still in progress, but the Wildcats have made some huge strides in that department.
Head coach Mark Stoops inherited a 2-10 squad in 2013 and naturally struggled in his first season, finishing at 2-10 for the second consecutive year.
Since then, Stoops has helped Kentucky finish .500 or better in six of the past nine seasons, and this year appears to be one of the best yet. Can his squad do the unthinkable and knock off Georgia on the road?
Moneyline
The Bulldogs are massive home favorites with moneyline odds of -575, while the Wildcats are huge underdogs at +425.
Georgia has established a strong foothold as one of the premier programs in college football, winning the last two National Championships and ranking first in the nation so far in 2023 despite losing experienced quarterback Stetson Bennett.
The Bulldogs are now led by Carson Beck, a junior quarterback seeing his first meaningful snaps this season. While Beck won’t win a Heisman or shatter any records, he has played within himself by limiting mistakes (two interceptions) and prioritizing accuracy (72% completion rate).
Meanwhile, Kentucky hammered the then-No. 22 Florida Gators in a monstrous 19-point win. Devin Leary played poorly, however, completing just nine of his 20 passes for 69 yards.
It was the run game that helped the Wildcats dominate the Gators. Kentucky ran for 329 yards, with 280 yards coming from star running back Re’Mahn (Ray) Davis.
Davis currently ranks fourth in the nation in rushing yards and rushing touchdowns. He also averages a ludicrous 7.8 yards per rush, which is very hard to do as a lead back with a ton of volume.
Georgia is a different kind of beast, though. The Bulldogs have held opponents to just over 108 rushing yards per contest, and the run game is Kentucky’s bread and butter. If Georgia stacks the box, the Wildcats will have a tough time scoring.
Georgia should secure a home win to move to 6-0.
Point Spread
The point spread for this SEC battle is 14.5 points in favor of the Bulldogs.
Kentucky has covered the spread in its last four matchups against Georgia, including last year’s 16-6 loss. Further, the Wildcats boast a 4-1 record ATS this season.
Meanwhile, the Bulldogs are 0-5 ATS despite winning all five games, indicating that sportsbooks’ expectations for them are too high.
Still, Georgia is playing a home game against a team that will lean too heavily on the run game to gain traction. That is not a recipe for success against a well-rounded Bulldogs team.
Buy down Georgia’s spread to 14 points or fewer, as it’s well worth the extra juice to get that two-score number.
Over/Under
The Over/Under for this game lies at 47.5 points, which is quite a bit considering these two teams combined for just 22 points in last season’s matchup. Additionally, Kentucky has only scored one touchdown in its last four games against the Bulldogs.
While the Wildcats generally struggle on offense, especially versus Georgia in the recent past, they have a top-tier defensive unit this season. Kentucky has the 29th-highest overall defensive grade from Pro Football Focus and ranks 16th in opponent points per game, allowing the fifth-fewest rushing yards.
The Bulldogs’ offense is not as dominant this season as it’s been in the past, so don’t expect them to hang a huge number on this Wildcats defense. The Under is the play here, especially after last season’s game gave us an outline of what we can expect.
Player Prop
Kentucky’s offense might have looked special against Florida in last week’s matchup, but it really is one of the Wildcats’ weaknesses, at least relative to their ranking.
If their opponents stop the run, however, they are in trouble. While Devin Leary has cleared his passing yards prop line (184.5) in four of his five games (with flying colors), this looks like an obvious spot to fade him.
The best team that Kentucky has played all season was Florida last week, and the Wildcats ran all over the Gator defense. However, Leary only threw for 69 yards and completed fewer than half of his passes. Obviously, the game script and dominance on the ground called for Kentucky to pound the ball repeatedly, but it is a bit concerning.
This line could be a trend trap. Leary has thrown for between 205 and 315 yards in four of his five games, but those were against less formidable teams like Akron, Ball State, Eastern Kentucky and Vanderbilt.
This game will be against the No. 1 team in the nation that also has the fifth-best coverage grade from PFF. Expect many three-and-outs from both teams in this defensive-centric dual, resulting in the Under for Leary.
Photo by Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
