No. 5 Indiana can clinch a berth in the Big Ten Championship Game with a victory against No. 2 Ohio State on Saturday in Columbus.
The Hoosiers (10-0, 7-0 in Big Ten) are having a dream season in James Cignetti’s inaugural campaign as head coach. Indiana is second in FBS in points per game (43.7) and seventh in points against per game (13.8). It’s already clinched the program’s first double-digit-win season in 126 years of football in Bloomington.
But to clinch their first-ever berth in the Big Ten title game, the Hoosiers will need to upset the most successful program in the conference’s history. Ohio State (9-1, 6-1 in Big Ten) has not lost a regular-season game to an opponent other than Oregon or Michigan in the last six years and is riding a 12-game home winning streak into its showdown with Indiana.
The Hoosiers are effectively a lock to crash the newly enlarged 12-team College Football Playoff, as their -450 odds give them an 81.8% chance of qualifying. But Indiana has only the third-shortest odds at DraftKings Sportsbook to win the Big Ten (+750), behind Ohio State (-115) and Oregon (+120).
The Hoosiers are big road underdogs for their trip to Columbus, as the Buckeyes are favored by 13 points. Here is our Indiana vs Ohio State prediction and best college football bets at our favorite college football betting sites.
Game Details
- Matchup: Indiana vs. Ohio State
- Date: Saturday, Nov. 23, 2024 (Week 13)
- Time: Noon ET
- Location: Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
- Watch: FOX
Odds Summary
- Moneyline: Indiana +370, Ohio State -485
- Spread: Indiana +13 (-112), Ohio State -13 (-108)
- Total: Over/Under 51.5 (-112/-108)
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook and subject to change.
Indiana vs. Ohio State Moneyline
The Hoosiers are the best story in college football this season, especially since they are pummeling inferior opponents. Indiana has played one game decided by fewer than 10 points — its 20-15 win over Michigan on Saturday.
The Hoosiers are led by Heisman Trophy candidate Kurtis Rourke, who has been one of the most efficient passers in FBS. Rourke is eighth in FBS in completion percentage (71.8%), third in yards per pass (10.1) and has an uber-impressive 21:4 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
But Indiana’s balanced offense will be tested by the Buckeyes’ stingy defense. Ohio State is second in the nation in yards against per game (250.8) and ranks fourth in rushing yards against per game (90.7).
The Buckeyes have allowed just 83 points in conference games (11.9 per game) – 32 of which came against Oregon in their only loss this year – and have surrendered just 37 points in four games since their loss to the Ducks.
This is a close-looking game on paper, but we can’t justify fading Ohio State, especially at home. Thus, we will back the Buckeyes on the moneyline, especially as a parlay leg.
Indiana vs. Ohio State Spread
Going to Columbus and hanging tough is a tall order for any team, as Ohio State has failed to cover two touchdowns in just three of its past 22 home games.
But this spread is super-inviting for Indiana bettors, as the Hoosiers are way more than a cute story. They’re pummeling bad opponents and lead the nation in average point scoring margin (30.1 points).
The case could even be made that Indiana is underrated at No. 5, as it’s the fourth-ranked Big Ten team and trails three one-loss teams in the CFP standings.
The Hoosiers’ underlying numbers are elite too, especially on defense. Indiana ranks third in FBS in yards against per game (255.5), sandwiched between Ohio State and Penn State.
The only reasons the Hoosiers are two-touchdown underdogs are their reputation and the fact that this game is in Columbus. Neither is a good enough reason for us to bet the Buckeyes to win by 14+, so back Indiana to keep it close on Saturday.
Indiana vs. Ohio State Over/Under
The total indicates a relatively high-scoring game, which is surprising since these are two top-10 defensive teams. The Buckeyes’ offense has also cooled down a bit, averaging just under 30 points per game over their last four.
Can Indiana put up points against Ohio State’s defense? That will be the question, as the Hoosiers are second in FBS in points per game and have topped 31 points in every game except their narrow win over Michigan.
In a high-stakes late-season showdown, we expect both defenses to bring their A-game and keep this game fairly low-scoring. Take the Under.
Indiana vs. Ohio State Props
Will Howard Over 0.5 Interceptions (+114)
Howard is averaging 0.5 picks per game, and the Hoosiers’ defense is averaging more than one interception per game. Indiana has 11 interceptions in 10 games this year and will need to force turnovers to keep this game competitive.
Howard has been intercepted in five of his last eight games and three of six home games. He’s also been picked off by the best defenses Ohio State has faced, as Penn State (4th), Iowa (25th), Nebraska (27th) and Iowa (33rd) are all among the best teams in yards against per game.
We would also back the Under for Howard’s passing touchdowns prop (Under 2.5, -224), especially as a same-game parlay leg.
Omar Cooper Jr. Over 30.5 Receiving Yards (-121)
The Hoosiers will likely be playing from behind, which means they’ll have to air the ball out. Cooper is averaging 22 yards per reception and 50-plus yards per game, so he could surpass this number with just one reception.
Cooper has topped this number in every game where he’s had more than one catch this season, so back him to do it again.
Indiana vs. Ohio State Same-Game Parlay
- Ohio State Moneyline
- Indiana +17.5
- Under 57.5 Points
Total Odds: +184
If you’re looking for a larger potential payout, consider adding Howard Under 2.5 Passing Touchdowns as well.
There’s inherent risk in wagering on both sides of the result, which is why we recommend an alternate spread for more protection. Ohio State should win, but Indiana should keep the game fairly close. We also expect the game to be low-scoring.
We usually want three-leg parlays to have +200 odds or longer to justify the wager, but +184 is close enough, especially if you can get it boosted closer to kickoff.
Indiana vs. Ohio State Best Bets Summary
- Moneyline: Ohio State (-485). The Buckeyes haven’t lost to anyone other than Michigan or Oregon at home in six years, and it’s hard to imagine Indiana being the team that changes that.
- Spread: Indiana +13 (-112). The Hoosiers are among the best teams in the country based on underlying numbers, which means this game should be a classic.
- Over/Under: Under 51.5 (-108). These teams are allowing fewer than 20 points per game, and if Indiana can get some stops, the Under will hit.
- Will Howard Over 0.5 Interceptions (+114). Howard has picks in five games this year against some of the top defenses in the country. Indiana’s opportunistic defense should make it six.
- Omar Cooper Jr. Over 30.5 Receiving Yards (-121). Cooper has topped 31 yards on one catch twice this season and has surpassed this number in every game with multiple catches, which should happen Saturday.
- SGP – Ohio State ML, Indiana +17.5, Under 57.5 (+184): The odds could be better and wagering on both sides of the result isn’t ideal, but this is still a solid parlay at plus odds.
