Betting Preview
Game Details
- Matchup: Michigan Wolverines at Penn State Nittany Lions
- Date: Saturday, Nov. 11 (Week 11)
- Time: 12:00 p.m. EST
- Location: Beaver Stadium (University Park, PA)
Odds Summary
- Moneyline: Wolverines -198, Nittany Lions +164
- Spread: Wolverines -4.5 (-110), Nittany Lions +4.5 (-110)
- Total: Over/Under 45 (-108/-112)
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. Subject to change.
Is this the most important game for the Michigan Wolverines in terms of rivalries? No, it is not; that game comes in Week 13 when the Wolverines host their bitter rival, Ohio State, in Ann Arbor.
However, for Michigan’s College Football Playoff hopes, this game has substantial implications. If the Wolverines beat the Nittany Lions, they’ll be as close to a lock to making the CFP as any team in the nation. They have a fairly straightforward matchup against the Maryland Terrapins (5-4) in Week 12 before their season finale against No. 1 Ohio State at home. Even if they lose to OSU, they should still get the stamp from the committee.
On the other hand, if No. 9 Penn State knocks off No. 2 Michigan, it would catapult itself back into the CFP picture, as its only loss was by eight points on the road against Ohio State. If a team will have any losses and still hope for a chance at the CFP, that would be the kind of loss to have.
The result of this game could very well shift the playoff picture. Which team will move one step closer to their final goal of winning a National Championship? Let’s dive into it.
Moneyline
Despite being an away team in one of the most hostile environments (Beaver Stadium) in college football, the Wolverines are still road moneyline favorites. Meanwhile, the Nittany Lions are slight home underdogs in this clash between two of the best teams in college football.
While Drew Allar’s Heisman odds are not nearly as favorable as J.J. McCarthy’s odds, Allar has still put together an incredibly impressive season, throwing for 20 touchdowns (tied for 16th in the nation) and 1,895 passing yards (54th in the nation) on a 62.8% completion rate. He has done all of this while throwing merely one interception this season.
Based on Allar’s passing attempts (288), his interception rate of 0.3% is by far the best of any quarterback in the nation. But can he put together a perfect performance under center, which is what it will take to put enough points on the board to get past this Michigan team?
At home this season, Allar has been nothing short of phenomenal, boasting a rating of 162.9, which is comparable to the overall ratings of Quinn Ewers, Carson Beck and Dillon Gabriel. That’s the quality of play that Penn State has been able to expect from Allar at Beaver Stadium this season.
While the Wolverines have allowed the fewest points and yards to opponents per game in the nation, they have had an exceptionally easy schedule up to this point and haven’t played a single Top 40 team yet. The Nittany Lions, on the other hand, are 2-1 against Top 40 teams, with their only loss coming on the road against Ohio State by a single score.
As far as strength of schedule goes, Michigan has played the second-easiest schedule thus far (per PowerRankingsGuru) of any team in a Power Five conference. Between the potential shell shock of playing in one of the most challenging environments in the nation and against the best opponent they have faced all season, expect the Wolverines to struggle just enough to open the window for Penn State to steal a win at home.
Point Spread
The spread has the Nittany Lions as 4.5-point home dogs on Saturday afternoon.
Michigan has covered the spread against Penn State in seven of its past nine matchups. However, the Nittany Lions have a much better season against the spread this year, going 7-2 ATS compared to the Wolverines’ 4-4-1 mark.
Ultimately, Penn State has the best counter to Michigan’s uber-talented backfield: the best run defense in the nation. The Nittany Lions allow the fewest rushing yards per game and fewest rushing yards per attempt to opponents, giving them an advantageous matchup. We have seen what Penn State’s front line has done to elite running backs (Ohio State’s Miyan Williams rushed 24 times for just 62 yards), so expect similarly underwhelming output for the Wolverines’ running backs.
Penn State getting nearly five points at home in this spot is a bit head-scratching, as it should be a tight game the whole way. However, we expect the Nittany Lions to win and cover the spread.
Over/Under
The Over/Under in this Big Ten battle is 45 points, even though both teams have elite defensive units. In the two games that Penn State has played against Top 25 teams, the point total finished well under this line as the Nittany Lions’ defense stepped up against ranked opponents.
Meanwhile, Michigan has gone over this line in five consecutive games, scoring at least 41 points in every game during that stretch. Still, the quality of opponents in that span is something to consider. Purdue (2-7), Michigan State (3-6), Indiana (3-6), Minnesota (5-4) and Nebraska (5-4) combine for an 18-27 record through the first 10 weeks of college football, so the No. 2 team in the nation should win all of those games by a wide margin while posting big numbers offensively.
However, we should expect a lower-scoring game here. These are two of the best defenses in the country, and Penn State allows fewer than 10 points per game to opponents at home. It would not be shocking to see this matchup take a similar shape to the Nittany Lions’ game vs. Ohio State.
Player Prop
For this pivotal game, Wolverines running back Blake Corum has an anytime touchdown prop line at -165. On the season, Corum has played in all nine games and amassed 16 rushing touchdowns. He has logged at least one touchdown in every game, meaning that he would have hit this prop all nine times.
Obviously, the circumstances with this game are different with Michigan facing one of the best defensive teams in the nation. Penn State has been especially tough against the runs, allowing the fewest rushing yards per game to opponents (55.9) and the fewest rushing yards per attempt (1.8) in the nation.
Even though this matchup is far from ideal, expect the Wolverines to lean heavily on Corum here, who is widely considered the best running back in college football. He leads the nation in rushing touchdowns and should get a heavy dose of touches to try to wear down the Nittany Lions’ defense and open up passing opportunities for the offense.
In other words, don’t expect Corum’s TD streak to end just yet.
Photo by Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
