Betting Preview
Game Details
- Matchup: No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 2 Washington
- Date: Monday, Jan. 8
- Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Location: NRG Stadium (Houston)
Odds Summary
- Moneyline: Washington +164, Michigan -200
- Spread: Washington +4.5 (-105), Michigan -4.5 (-115)
- Total: Over/Under 56.5 (-110/-110)
Odds from FanDuel Sportsbook. Subject to change.
The 2023-24 college football season concludes on Jan. 8 with the National Championship Game between the No. 2 Washington Huskies and No. 1 Michigan Wolverines.
Both squads are 14-0 after thrilling wins during the College Football Playoff.
The Wolverines took down the Alabama Crimson Tide 27-20 in overtime during the Rose Bowl, while the Huskies held off the Texas Longhorns in a 37-31 upset at the Sugar Bowl.
Washington is a slight underdog again ahead of Monday’s clash in Houston. Both programs are shooting for their first national trophy since the 1990s.
Let’s preview this showdown between the two undefeated titans.
Moneyline
Michigan opened as a near 2/1 favorite on the moneyline coming into this matchup. Is that justified?
Head coach Jim Harbaugh finally pushed the Wolverines over the hump in the Rose Bowl, snapping their streak of six straight bowl game losses. Michigan looks for its first championship since 1997.
The Wolverines showcased their strengths against Nick Saban’s Crimson Tide, relying on quarterback J.J. McCarthy (three touchdown passes), star running back Blake Corum (two touchdowns) and stellar defense.
Michigan will need another strong defensive effort to slow down the Huskies’ potent attack. The Wolverines have one of the best defenses in the nation, ranking top 10 in passing yards allowed, rushing yards allowed and total points allowed.
Washington narrowly avoided a major collapse against the Longhorns in the final seconds of the Sugar Bowl. While the Huskies emerged with the win, top running back Dillon Johnson suffered a foot injury during their final offensive drive and may be unavailable in the title tilt.
If Johnson can’t play, Washington must lean even more heavily on quarterback Michael Penix Jr. The Heisman runner-up was sensational in the Sugar Bowl, shredding Texas for 430 passing yards and a pair of touchdowns.
Kalen DeBoer’s Huskies will also need their defense to step up to win their first national title since 1991. Washington held the Longhorns to just 10 points in the second half, coming up with a season-saving defensive stop at the game’s end to seal the victory.
Washington’s defense isn’t as stingy as Michigan’s, allowing more than twice as many points per game. The Huskies are vulnerable against the pass and may struggle to stop Corum on the ground.
Washington has the edge at quarterback, but the Wolverines are the better all-around team and have a more experienced head coach.
Take Michigan on the moneyline.
Point Spread
Both teams covered the spread in the CFP, and the Wolverines opened as 4.5-point favorites heading into this matchup.
Michigan has covered that number in every game this season, winning each matchup by at least six points. The Wolverines are 8-5-1 against the spread.
The Huskies have also covered +4.5 points in all of their games. Their last five games have been one-possession affairs, and they are 7-6-1 against the spread.
This should be another close contest for Washington, even if it ends in defeat. Penix became the first college player since Patrick Mahomes to eclipse 4,500 passing yards in back-to-back seasons and can keep the Huskies in the game until the end.
Washington covered as an underdog in the Sugar Bowl and shouldn’t be discounted here, even if Johnson is out. The Huskies’ defense proved itself against the Longhorns’ electric offense and has a slightly easier matchup against Michigan.
While McCarthy is a highly accurate passer, he’s more of a game manager than Texas’ Quinn Ewers. McCarthy isn’t a major threat to exploit Washington’s secondary with big plays through the air.
The Huskies’ offense is more explosive with Penix and can score quickly if it falls behind.
Three of Washington’s last five games have been decided by a field goal or less, and this game could have a similar outcome.
We prefer the points with the Huskies.
Over/Under
The Over/Under opened at 56.5 points, essentially the average of the two CFP games.
The Rose Bowl saw 47 total points (with overtime), while the Sugar Bowl had 68 points. That averages to 57.5 points.
Assuming this game doesn’t go to overtime and accounting for Johnson’s potential absence, 56.5 total points is a reasonable projection.
For the Over to hit, one team must score at least 29 points. That may be difficult due to Michigan’s playing style.
The Wolverines’ offense has slowed, averaging 27.6 points over its last five games compared to 40.7 points in its first nine games. McCarthy’s lackluster production is the main culprit, as he’s gone under 150 passing yards in four of those contests.
Michigan prefers conservative play on offense by running the ball and utilizing short passes. Harbaugh’s squad doesn’t make many mistakes, controlling the ball with drives that bleed the clock.
The Wolverines have gone under 29 points in three of their last five games, so it’s hard to trust them to hit that number in the title game.
Washington may also have difficulty getting to 29 points, especially against Michigan’s stifling defense. The Wolverines have not allowed more than 24 points in a game this year, yielding a mere 10.2 points per game.
Washington’s attack will also be limited if Johnson sits. He’s been the team’s leading rusher this year with 1,162 rushing yards and 16 rushing touchdowns. No other Huskies running back has 200 rushing yards.
If Johnson is sidelined, Michigan can sit back in coverage and make passing the ball harder for Penix, reducing his effectiveness.
Washington has gone under 25 points in two of its last four games and is due for some regression this week against the nation’s No. 1 defense. With both offenses unlikely to threaten 30 points, the Under is the safer play.
Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images
