Betting Preview
Game Details
- Who: Ohio State Buckeyes at Notre Dame Fighting Irish
- When: Saturday, Sept. 23 (Week 4)
- Time: 4:30 p.m. PST/ 7:30 p.m. EST
- Where: Notre Dame Stadium (Notre Dame, IN)
Betting Odds Summary
- Moneyline: Buckeyes -148, Fighting Irish +124
- Spread: Buckeyes -3 (-115), Fighting Irish +3 (-105)
- Total: Over/Under 55.5 (-110/-110)
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. Subject to change.
It is finally here: the much-anticipated top-ten matchup between the high-octane Ohio State Buckeyes offense and the new-look Notre Dame Fighting Irish.
The Irish often take heat for not joining a Power Five conference like the Big Ten or ACC, but they have made a concerted effort to ramp up their strength of schedule this season.
Those efforts bring us to this electric Week 4 battle, which will be the first real test for both teams. Notre Dame has coasted through its first four games with relative ease, while the Buckeyes initially struggled in their first game against Indiana but have since put together two respectable games versus Youngstown State and Western Kentucky.
A win for the Irish could catapult Sam Hartman’s Heisman odds even more after a red-hot start, plus Notre Dame would then be truly considered a legitimate national championship contender (futures odds of +1600.)
Meanwhile, the only other ranked opponents Ohio State will face are at home versus No. 7 Penn State and on the road at No. 2 Michigan in its last game of the season. If the Buckeyes lock up a road win this weekend, take care of the remaining games they are expected to and go 1-1 in those two aforementioned games, they will almost certainly be in the College Football Playoff.
The stakes are high for both teams early in the season. Let’s get into which team will take one step closer to their CFP dreams.
Moneyline
Ohio State is a slight road favorite, with moneyline odds of -148 as of Friday morning. Notre Dame is a home underdog at +124.
This game should be a nail-biter, as both squads have plenty of talent. The Irish have one of the best running backs in the nation in Audric Estime, while the Buckeyes have undoubtedly the top receiving corps (Marvin Harrison Jr. and Emeka Egbuka) in college football.
In recent seasons under former head coach Brian Kelly, Notre Dame was an easy team to fade due to its tendency to drop the ball in big games. Don’t expect that trend to continue, especially considering the Irish seem to have finally found the star quarterback they have been searching for since Brady Quinn.
Since transferring to Notre Dame, Sam Hartman has thrown for the most passing touchdowns (13) in college football and has still not logged a single interception. Hartman’s total passing yards and total touchdowns are a bit inflated due to the fact that the Fighting Irish have played four games instead of three (they played in Week 0). Still, his efficiency has been elite (71.1% completion rate) and he has played his role perfectly.
On the other side, Kyle McCord won the quarterback job for Ohio State but has been inconsistent, to say the least. McCord has the best wide receiver duo in the nation and likely the second-best running back unit, too, yet his 271 passing yards per game rank just 30th in the nation.
Further, the Buckeyes have been playing marginal teams. If McCord can’t dominate those teams with the skill position talent and offensive line he has at his disposal, then how will he fare against this tough Notre Dame defense on the road in a potentially season-defining game?
Trust the experience and poise of Hartman to lead the Irish to a home victory.
Point Spread
The point spread for this matchup has Ohio State as a three-point road favorite. The Buckeyes have started the season 3-0 but have left much to be desired, especially on offense.
As mentioned above, it used to make plenty of sense to fade Notre Dame against ranked opponents, particularly under former head coach Brian Kelly. However, the tables seem to have turned under Marcus Freeman, who holds a 3-1 record against the spread versus ranked opponents since taking over the head coaching job.
The Irish as a three-point home dog appear to be a viable play against the volatile OSU, even though Notre Dame hasn’t beaten the Buckeyes since 1936.
Over/Under
The Over/Under total for this game has remained relatively steady at 55.5 points.
The question at hand is which will win out – both teams’ high-powered offenses or their stifling, suffocating defenses? This game could finish with a similar result to last season (21-10 final score), or it could be a shootout.
The Under seems more attractive. While Ohio State returns many of its skill position players from last season on offense, it has a significant downgrade at quarterback.
C.J. Stroud was already a decorated quarterback for the Buckeyes at the beginning of the 2022 season, so the experience was there. Even still, Stroud only threw for 223 yards and two touchdowns against the Fighting Irish defense last year, which has only improved this season.
McCord has only played in blowouts in 2021 and 2022 and just three games against subpar competition so far in 2023. He could struggle here, at least initially, opening the door for a low-scoring first half.
Notre Dame would much rather keep steady pressure on OSU by balancing the run and pass game than getting into a shootout with the Buckeyes. If the Irish can control the tempo, the final score will struggle to surpass the 55.5-point total.
Player Prop
Audric Estime entered this season as the de facto starting running back for Notre Dame after an impressive 2022 season. Last year, Estime was able to amass just shy of 1,000 rushing yards despite splitting carries with two other running backs. He also posted an impressive average of 5.9 rushing yards per attempt.
That average put him just behind star running backs Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs (6.1 yards per rush), who are both featured backs in their respective pro offenses now. Still, Estime seemed to be overlooked by many people heading into this season.
Estime’s player prop line for rushing yards in this game is 73.5 yards. He has slaughtered that line in every game, averaging a whopping 130.3 yards per contest.
Ohio State will be the biggest test for Estime yet, as the Buckeyes boast by far the strongest defense that the Irish have faced to this point. Through three weeks, they have held opponents to the 18th-fewest rushing yards per game. Further, PFF has graded Ohio State as having the 17th-best run defense thus far in the 2023 season.
Despite the Buckeyes having a strong run defense, the only genuine concern with Estime eclipsing his player prop line is the game script. If Ohio State were to jump out to a significant lead early on in the game, then Estime might have limited touches.
Still, expect Notre Dame to feed him early and often as it tries to establish the run game. Don’t be surprised if Estime breaks off a couple of big runs, especially late in the game when the Buckeyes’ defense wears down.
Photo by Erick W. Rasco/Sports Illustrated via Getty Images
