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Two longtime Big Ten rivals will square off when No. 3 Penn State hosts No. 4 Ohio State in a game with huge College Football Playoff ramifications in Happy Valley on Saturday.
The Nittany Lions (7-0) have dropped seven straight to the Buckeyes (6-1), and coach James Franklin is just 1-9 in his career against Ohio State. Still, Penn State remains one of the last eight unbeaten teams and is seeking its first 8-0 start in five years.
But the Buckeyes are standing in the way again. Ohio State rebounded from its one-point road loss to Oregon by rallying for a 21-17 home win over Nebraska to keep itself in the Big Ten Championship conversation.
Ohio State (second, +450) and Penn State (fifth, +1300) both have some of the shortest national championship odds at DraftKings, making this a colossal matchup between two of the best teams in college football.
Here’s how we expect this titanic showdown to play out and how to bet on this game at our favorite college football betting sites.
Game Details
- Matchup: Ohio State vs. Penn State
- Date: Saturday, Nov. 2, 2024 (Week 10)
- Time: 12 p.m. ET
- Location: Beaver Stadium (University Park, Pennsylvania)
- Watch: FOX
Odds Summary
- Moneyline: Ohio State -180, Penn State +150
- Spread: Ohio State -3.5 (-110), Penn State +3.5 (-110)
- Total: Over/Under 45 (-112/-108)
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook and subject to change.
Ohio State vs. Penn State Moneyline
This is Penn State’s best chance to defeat Ohio State since its come-from-behind 24-21 win in its annual White Out game in 2016. It won’t be a White Out on Saturday, but you can bet the Nittany Lions’ faithful will be at full throttle with a chance to finally exorcize a decade’s worth of demons against their conference rivals.
Still, the Buckeyes are formidable, especially on defense. They have given up the second-fewest points per game (11.9) in the FBS, rank sixth in rushing yards against per game (91.3) and are giving up the second-fewest yards per game (254.4).
The question is whether Penn State can move the ball consistently against Ohio State’s defense. The Nittany Lions play complementary football on offense (they are third in the Big Ten in rushing yards per game at 197.1), and junior quarterback Drew Allar has a 12:4 TD/INT ratio despite averaging just 234.3 passing yards per game.
These teams are nearly identical statistically. Both rank near the top in rushing yards and rushing yards allowed – two crucial categories for winning Big Ten games in November. They’re also among the highest-scoring teams in FBS.
This game may come down to one play. If that’s the case, we prefer Ohio State’s explosiveness over a slightly less-talented Penn State squad.
Thus, we’ll back the Buckeyes to hold off the Nittany Lions in a potential classic.
Ohio State vs. Penn State Spread
This is where things get interesting. If sportsbooks drop the hook, then Ohio -3 seems like a no-brainer.
Still, all of the Buckeyes’ wins have come by at least four points this year. Their average margin of victory against the Nittany Lions is eight points over the past seven years, and they’re 5-2 against a -3.5 spread in those games.
If you’re backing Ohio State to win, the Buckeyes are a good bet to cover as well. That said, both kickers are great and overtime is certainly on the table.
Still, we like Ohio State -3.5.
Ohio State vs. Penn State Over/Under
This is a very low total for a marquee FBS game, though it is a Big Ten game in Pennsylvania in November. The temperature is expected to be around 55 degrees at kickoff, and winds aren’t projected to be a major factor.
While the Nittany Lions are averaging almost 35 points per game at home, that’s skewed by their 56-0 win over Kent State – arguably the worst team in FBS. Penn State is averaging just 24 points in conference home games and has failed to top 30 points in three of its four conference games.
The Buckeyes won a close, low-scoring conference game against the Cornhuskers last week and have allowed more than 17 points only once this season in their 32-31 loss to the Ducks.
The Nittany Lions don’t have a high-octane offense, so back the Under here.
Ohio State vs. Penn State Props
Will Howard Over 15.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
Howard is not a dual-threat quarterback, for he averages just 2.2 yards per rush and 13 rushing-yards per game. He is just 1-6 against this prop this season – a consequence of sack yards being counted as rushing yards in college football.
But Penn State is tied for 11th in sacks in the Big Ten (14) and had nine in one game against Illinois. The Nittany Lions are likely to sell out and defend the run against TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins, both of whom are averaging over six yards per carry.
That will leave Howard as an option in certain RPOs, plus he’ll likely need to scramble to avoid Penn State’s pass rush. He has double-digit rushing yards in each of his conference games and should finish with 20-plus rushing yards.
Harrison Wallace III Over 36.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
As tempting as it would be to take a Kaytron Allen anytime touchdown prop (+100), Wallace is averaging 50 receiving yards per game and has topped this prop in four straight games.
Look for Wallace to stay busy this week. He’s second on Penn State in both catches (22) and receiving yards (350), so he should be able to get open against Ohio State’s tough pass defense.
This is a relatively low bar for Wallace to clear, and he should end up with around 50 or 60 receiving yards again.
Note that college football player props are not offered in some states with legal sports betting.
Ohio State vs. Penn State Best Bets Summary
- Moneyline: Ohio State (-180). The Buckeyes have owned the Nittany Lions, and they need to win to have a shot at winning the Big Ten.
- Spread: Ohio State -3.5 (-110). The hook isn’t ideal, but a four-point margin of victory seems likely as long as this game stays out of overtime.
- Total: Under 45 (-108). Both defenses are elite, and this is Big Ten football in November. The Under is the only play.
- Will Howard Over 15.5 Rushing Yards (-120). Howard has only topped this number once this season but should be forced to make plays with his legs against Penn State’s solid pass defense.
- Harrison Wallace III Over 36.5 Receiving Yards (-115). This is a low bar to clear for a receiver averaging 50 yards per game, especially in a game where Penn State will need to throw the ball.