Betting Preview
Game Details
- Who: Oklahoma Sooners at Texas Longhorns
- When: Saturday, Oct. 7 (Week 6)
- Time: 11:00 a.m. CST / 12:00 p.m. EST
- Where: Cotton Bowl Stadium (Dallas, TX)
Betting Odds Summary
- Moneyline: Oklahoma +185, Texas -225
- Spread: Oklahoma +5 (-110), Texas -5 (-110)
- Total: Over/Under 60.5 (-110/-110)
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. Subject to change.
It’s the beginning of October, which means that the annual “Red River Showdown” is about to take place. One of the oldest rivalries in college football, this game has been played yearly since 1929. The stakes are high again, too, with both teams ranking in the top 25.
Texas football is officially back. The Longhorns are the No. 3 team in the nation after the first five weeks of the 2023 season – their highest ranking since 2009.
In just his third season as Texas’ head coach, Steve Sarkisian has flipped the outlook for this program. The Longhorns are 5-0 and already have an impressive double-digit road win over No. 11 Alabama on their 2023 resume.
Sarkisian is not the program’s only savior, though. Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers deserves a substantial amount of praise. Ewers has the third-best Heisman odds after the first five games of the season. He ranks 26th in passing yards per game, 29th in passing touchdowns and 36th in completion percentage while throwing only one interception.
This is undoubtedly the most challenging game remaining on the Longhorns’ schedule. Texas doesn’t play any more ranked opponents (as of now) for the rest of the year, so if it wins, it could be smooth sailing to the College Football Playoffs.
Meanwhile, Oklahoma has bounced back in a big way after finishing 6-7 in its first season without Lincoln Riley. The Sooners now rank 12th in the nation behind second-year head coach Brent Venables and senior gunslinger Dillon Gabriel.
Thus far, Oklahoma has secured wins over Tulsa, Arkansas State, SMU, Cincinnati and Iowa State. This game against Texas on a neutral ground will be the Sooners’ first real test of the season. If they can secure this win, it would be a massive resume builder for when the bowl games roll around.
Does Oklahoma have what it takes? Or will Texas expose flaws?
Moneyline
The “Red River Showdown” will be played on a neutral field, almost halfway between Austin, Texas and Norman, Oklahoma. For this matchup, the Longhorns are the moneyline favorites at -225, while the Sooners (+185) are underdogs.
The last time these two teams faced off, Texas won in a 49-0 landslide. That was just one year ago, but much has changed for both teams. The Longhorns are No. 3 in the nation, while Oklahoma is undefeated through five games after finishing below .500 last year.
However, this Texas team already played in a huge game this season and won handily, beating Alabama on the road by double digits. The Sooners, however, have yet to face an opponent that remotely resembles this talented Longhorns squad.
Oklahoma is still a largely unproven team with five wins against middle-of-the-road opponents. The Sooners’ offensive line has not been tested like it will be on Saturday.
Gabriel has been well-protected in the pocket thus far, but Texas has one of the more talented defensive lines in the nation. It features T’Vondre Sweat (sixth in the nation in pass rush grade with a minimum of 75 pass rushes) and Byron Murphy II (38th).
Further, Gabriel only completes 51.9% of his passes when he’s pressured versus his season average of 75.2% (fifth in the nation). In his 27 throws under pressure, Gabriel has thrown two interceptions, which have been his only interceptions this season.
The Longhorns will enter this game with a simple plan: pressure Gabriel and Oklahoma’s offensive line on defense while trusting Ewers to lead the offense. Texas should squeak out a narrow victory.
Point Spread
The point spread for this showdown sits at five points with the Longhorns favored.
The Sooners have surprised everyone this season, rattling off a 5-0 record and covering the spread in every bout. Oklahoma has outperformed the expectations of the sportsbooks, but this will be its first test against a ranked opponent.
Regardless, there is much to be excited about with the Sooners. They have gotten terrific quarterback play from Gabriel, who has thrown the fourth-most passing touchdowns and seventh-most passing yards thus far.
Additionally, Oklahoma ranks first in TeamRankings’ last five games’ power rating and has the third-highest overall defense grade from Pro Football Focus.
This game should be tight the whole way, with both teams trading punches until the end. Five points is a lot for Texas to cover given how strong the Sooners’ advanced analytics are, so back Oklahoma to cover here.
Over/Under
The Over/Under for this Big 12 matchup sits at 60.5 points.
The Sooners have been a tough team to read as far as point totals are concerned. They have played in high-scoring and low-scoring games, including a 66-17 win against Tulsa and a 20-6 win over Cincinnati.
On the other hand, the Longhorns have played in games with totals that have consistently hovered in the 40s and 50s, largely because they’ve scored between 31 and 40 points in all five of their games.
Texas and Oklahoma have combined for 83.4 points per game thus far, but each team’s defense will be among the best they have faced.
Given that, the Under gets a slight lean here for a few reasons.
First, the Longhorns have really locked in on the defensive side of the ball, allowing just 10 points per game to opponents since their double-digit win against Alabama. A similar story could be told about the Sooners, who ranked fourth in stop rate percentage through the first four weeks of the season, according to The Athletic.
Ultimately, this should be a lower-scoring game that looks more like a chess match than a shootout and hits the Under.
Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images
