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After an exciting college football regular season, it’s time for the CFB postseason to start.
This weekend features a massive matchup for the Big Ten Championship between No. 4 Penn State (11-1) and No. 1 Oregon (12-0). The game will take place at a neutral site in Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis – home of the NFL’s Indianapolis Colts.
The winner of this game earns a first-round bye in the new 12-team College Football Playoffs, so the stakes are high for both sides.
Both teams have been among the best in the country this year and are eyeing the National Championship next month. The Ducks have the shortest National Championship odds at FanDuel Sportsbook (+350), while the Nittany Lions have the sixth-shortest odds at +1000.
Oregon enters this Big Ten rivalry game as a slight favorite, but the odds are close. Here’s everything you need to know about this huge matchup and how to bet on it at our favorite college football betting sites.
Game Details
- Matchup: Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Oregon Ducks
- Date: Saturday, Dec. 7, 2024
- Time: 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT
- Location: Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis)
- Watch: CBS
Odds Summary
- Moneyline: Penn State +140, Oregon -170
- Spread: Penn State +3.5 (-110), Oregon 3.5 (-110)
- Total: Over/Under 49.5 (-115/-105)
Odds are from FanDuel and subject to change.
Penn State vs. Oregon Moneyline
As you can see by the odds, this is an incredibly close matchup.
Penn State’s only loss this year was a 20-13 home defeat to Ohio State in early November. The Nittany Lions have won four straight since and are 8-1 against Big Ten opponents.
Meanwhile, Oregon hasn’t lost a game. The Ducks are undefeated at 12-0, including 9-0 against conference opponents. They’re also coming off a massive 49-21 win over Washington where they matched their season-high in points.
Both teams are outstanding on both sides of the ball. Oregon has a slightly better offense (22 more points scored), while Penn State has a slightly better defense (26 fewer points allowed).
This game could go either way, but we’ll back the Ducks to stay unbeaten. They’re a hair more talented and beat the Buckeyes, whereas the Nittany Lions didn’t.
Penn State vs. Oregon Spread
In a matchup this close, it’s wise to side with the underdogs.
It wouldn’t be surprising if the Nittany Lions won this game outright. Even if they lose by a field goal, they’ll still cover.
The Ducks have played some stressful games this year, as three of their wins were decided by a field goal or less. Meanwhile, Penn State’s lone loss came by one possession.
The Nittany Lions have the defense and firepower to keep this game close, perhaps down to the final possession. Take the points with Penn State.
Penn State vs. Oregon Over/Under
The total is tough to gauge, as both teams had identical 5-7 records against the Over this year.
Penn State’s last three games have hit the Over, while the Under is 6-3 in Oregon’s last nine games.
That said, 50 points is a reasonable bar for these teams to clear. The Nittany Lions have had at least 50 total points in three straight games, while the Ducks have seen more than 50 points in three of their last four.
Back both teams to continue their recent trend of high-scoring games and take the Over.
Penn State vs. Oregon Props
Both Teams To Score 20+ Points (-115)
The Nittany Lions have scored at least 20 points in every game except for one – their 20-13 loss to Ohio State.
The same is true of the Ducks, who fell shy of 20 points in their ugly 16-13 win over Wisconsin.
Both offenses rank in the top 30 in scoring and finished the regular season strong with over 40 points last week. We only need them to score half as many this week, which isn’t asking much.
Dillon Gabriel Over 20.5 Completions (-135)
Gabriel has been the best passer in college football this year, leading FBS in completions (275), completion rate (73.5%) and passing yards (3,275).
The Heisman Trophy candidate is averaging 22.9 completions per game and has notched at least 21 completions in seven of 12 games this year. This will likely be a tight game until the end, so Gabriel should get enough pass attempts and have enough success through the air to hit the Over on this prop bet.
Penn State vs. Oregon Same-Game Parlay
- Oregon Moneyline
- Oregon 1st Quarter Moneyline
- Over 49.5 Total Points
- Total odds: +282
As mentioned, Oregon hasn’t lost this year and seems slightly more polished than Penn State. The Ducks have a small edge at quarterback with Dillon Gabriel over Drew Allar, and that could be the difference in a close game.
We also think Oregon will start fast after racking up 49 points last week. Look for the Ducks to grab an early lead and be ahead when the first quarter ends.
Lastly, we’re expecting a fairly high-scoring game between two elite offenses. Gabriel and Allar are two of the best QBs in the NCAA, so it won’t be surprising if this game becomes a shootout.
Penn State vs. Oregon Best Bets Summary
- Moneyline: Oregon (-170). The Ducks have yet to lose this year, and we think that streak will continue.
- Spread: Penn State +3.5 (-110). The Nittany Lions should be in this game to the end and may win outright.
- Over/Under: Over 49.5 (-115). Both offenses ended the season on a high note, so this game should feature plenty of points.
- Both Teams To Score 20+ Points (-115). This is a low bar to clear for two offenses that averaged over 30 points per game during the regular season.
- Dillon Gabriel Over 20.5 Completions (-135). Gabriel is extremely accurate, which should help him overcome Penn State’s stingy secondary.
- SGP – Oregon ML, Oregon 1Q ML, Over 49.5 (+282): Look for Oregon to come out strong and win a high-scoring game in this same-game parlay.
