No. 24 Iowa vs. No. 7 Penn State: Odds, Lines, Picks & Best Bets

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Betting Preview

Game Details

  • Who: Iowa Hawkeyes at Penn State Nittany Lions
  • When: Saturday, Sept. 23 (Week 4)
  • Time: 7:30 p.m. EST
  • Where: Beaver Stadium (University Park, PA)

Betting Odds Summary

  • Moneyline: Hawkeyes +470, Nittany Lions -650
  • Spread: Hawkeyes +14.5 (-112), Nittany Lions -14.5 (-108)
  • Total: Over/Under 39.5 (-110/-110)

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. Subject to change.

Penn State will hope to keep applying pressure on Ohio State in the Big Ten East standings when it hosts Cade McNamara and the Iowa Hawkeyes on Saturday night. 

After losing the Michigan starting job to J.J. McCarthy in 2022, McNamara transferred to Iowa. So far, so good for McNamara, as Iowa is 3-0 and currently ranked 24th in the nation. 

Still, his role for the Hawkeyes is much more geared towards being a “game manager” than a quarterback who is expected to move the offense and extend drives via his arm. This certainly makes sense, considering that Iowa is historically a run-heavy team.

Much like past seasons, the Hawkeyes will continue to rely on their stout defense to hold opponents to minimal offensive output. They thrive in low-scoring, physical bouts that primarily take place “in the trenches,” which is often expected in Big Ten play. 

A win on the road against Penn State in this spot could set Iowa up for a Big Ten West title and possibly a CFP appearance, as the Hawkeyes don’t play any other ranked opponents for the rest of the 2023 season.

Meanwhile, the Nittany Lions have had some highs and lows since the end of Joe Paterno’s reign as head coach in 2011. They had Bill O’Brien at the helm for two mediocre seasons before hiring James Franklin, the head coach since 2014. In that span, Franklin has turned this program back around, appearing in the AP Top 10 in eight of his 10 seasons. 

Can McNamara continue to help propel Iowa higher in the AP Poll, or will Penn State continue its surge back to college football relevancy?

Moneyline

The Nittany Lions are heavy home favorites in this matchup with moneyline odds at -650, while the Hawkeyes hold odds of +470 to go on the road in a hostile environment and grab a season-defining win.

Iowa is in a tough position. It will be without its top two running backs, Kaleb Johnson and Jaziun Patterson, on the road against the seventh-ranked team in the nation. Leshon Williams will be the lead back for the Hawkeyes, and while he had a very strong game against Western Michigan (12 carries for 145 yards), this Penn State defense is a completely different animal.

The Nittany Lions have also yet to face a defense that is anywhere near as physical and talented as this Iowa team. This will be a challenging test for Drew Allar, who is entering his first season as starting quarterback for Penn State.

In a huge game like this, especially early in your career as a quarterback, it helps immensely to have a running back unit to lean on, which is exactly what Allar will do with Nicholas Singleton (34th in total rushing yards in 2022) and Kaytron Allen (66th in total rushing yards in 2022). 

Regardless, Allar has already shown impressive poise under pressure through the first three weeks of the season. If he maintains that poise against this physical Hawkeyes defense, the Nittany Lions will be in good shape.

While Penn State’s offensive line did improve drastically from 2021 to 2022, it still only received a 58.7 run blocking grade from PFF last year, which ranked 71st in the country (PSU is 52nd in that same metric so far in 2023). Now, the Nittany Lions have a solid offensive line, two star running backs and a quarterback who can get the ball into his receivers’ hands (67% completion rate).

Ultimately, Iowa’s defense will succeed early at holding Penn State’s offense, but it’s hard to trust the Hawkeyes’ offense to generate any meaningful drives. If Penn State can force a few three-and-outs, then it should pull away late in the game for a key home win.

Point Spread

The spread has the Nittany Lions as 14.5-point favorites. These teams tend to play each other competitively, as four of their last five meetings have been decided by six points or fewer. 

As mentioned above, this game should be low-scoring and tight. The expectation is that Penn State will pull away at the end of the game due to its balanced offensive attack and the inevitable fatigue from the Iowa defense, which will be relied upon too heavily throughout to get stops. The Nittany Lions should get a narrow home win.

However, the Hawkeyes have proven that they have one of the strongest defensive units in the nation (second in PFF’s overall defense grade for 2023). That unit is led by the front line of Deontae Craig, Logan Lee, Joe Evans and Noah Shannon, who have all been instrumental in Iowa allowing merely 3.5 yards per carry to opponents so far this year. 

The Hawkeyes’ secondary is also stacked with Cooper DeJean leading the way. Iowa lost a lot of production from last season’s team, including 13th overall pick Lukas Van Ness and 18th overall pick Jack Campbell. However, signs are positive that the Hawkeyes will continue to fill in the gaps those two left.

Penn State’s offense is deadly, but so is Iowa’s defensive front line. The Hawkeyes should keep this close, and that extra half point (14.5) on the spread is enticing enough to ride with the road dogs.

Over/Under

The Over/Under for this game has remained relatively constant at 39.5 points. Iowa has only played in one game this season that has eclipsed 40 total points, while all of the Nittany Lions’ games have gone over that line in 2023.

In most games, 39.5 points would seem like a super low point total. However, the Under has some appeal in this spot. It is challenging to see both teams punching in three touchdowns apiece in such a key game.

For the Hawkeyes, this game could make or break their CFP hopes. A win means they have a legitimate chance to finish the season undefeated, as the Big Ten West is weak and Penn State is their only ranked opponent. Expect a defensive showdown between these teams.

Player Prop

Leshon Williams will assume the lead back duties for Iowa while the top two running backs on the depth chart recover from their respective injuries. Williams had a strong outing last week against the Western Michigan Broncos, rushing 12 times for 145 yards in what became a career game for him.

For this matchup against the Nittany Lions, Williams’ rushing yards player prop line is 58.5 yards. However, his breakout game against Western Michigan may have slightly inflated his line for this week. Penn State is only allowing three yards per carry to opponents thus far, making this a tough matchup for Iowa’s RB3.

To alleviate the pressure from Williams and the other healthy running backs still on the roster, expect the Hawkeyes to rotate running backs in this game to keep them fresh and throw different looks at the Nittany Lions. 

The reality is that Iowa isn’t going to hand the ball off to Williams 20 times on Saturday night. As a matter of fact, the distribution of carries last week was interesting, with Kamari Moulton taking eight carries, Terrell Washington Jr. getting six and a variety of other players logging two or three. 

Accordingly, Williams likely won’t get enough touches to hit the Over on his rushing yards prop, making the Under the safer play.

Photo by Matthew Holst/Getty Images

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