Tennessee vs. Georgia: Predictions, Odds, Spread, Picks & Best Bets – CFB Week 12

The biggest story entering this game is Tennessee quarterback Nico Iamaleava’s status. Iamaleava left last week’s win with concussion-like symptoms and was listed as questionable on Wednesday’s injury report.

Volunteers coach Josh Heupel expects to have his starting QB on the field Saturday night. However, Iamaleava was struggling with his efficiency even before the head injury, completing just 56.8% of his passes over his last five games.

The freshman may continue to struggle against Georgia, which is one of the top defensive teams in the country. The Bulldogs are 16th in FBS in points allowed per game (18.4) and 13th in yards allowed per game (306.6). They’ve allowed fewer than 350 offensive yards in six of their nine games, including their dominant 30-15 win over then-No. 1 Texas on Oct. 19.

Tennessee’s defense is also legit, ranking fourth in total yards allowed per game (271.2) and 15th in passing yards allowed (171.6) per game.

But can the Volunteers put up enough points to win at Sanford Stadium, where Georgia has not lost in more than five years?

Our Tennessee vs Georgia prediction is no. Take the Bulldogs on the moneyline, ideally as a parlay leg given the odds.

The spread in this game is way too high, even with Iamaleava’s status in doubt and Tennessee’s top receiver Dont’e Thornton Jr. also listed as questionable with an upper-body injury.

The Vols’ defense has been excellent all season, and even their lone loss came by just five points. Georgia hasn’t been pummeling good teams either, going 3-3-1 against a -10 spread in SEC play this season.

Bulldogs quarterback Carson Beck opened the season as a Heisman Trophy favorite but leads FBS in interceptions (12) and has completed just 60.7% of passes over his last three games.

If Beck is inefficient or turns the ball over, Tennessee can win the game outright. At the very least, the Volunteers should be able to keep the game close and cover +10.

These are two of the best defensive teams in the country, and each is nursing a vulnerable and struggling offense.

Tennessee is averaging 37 points per game this year but just 24.5 points per game in SEC play.

Georgia has topped 30 points in every home game this year, but it may struggle to put up points against the Vols’ exceptional defense.

In a conference game with huge stakes, both quarterbacks could be feeling the pressure. Accordingly, we’ll take the Under.

Carson Beck Over 0.5 Interceptions (-119)

Beck leads the country in interceptions, and Tennessee has an interception in every SEC game except its loss to Arkansas. The Vols have six picks in their past four games, making them a good bet to intercept Beck at least once on Saturday.

In a game that should feature plenty of defense, Beck’s odds of turning the ball over are way too favorable. This is one of the best NCAAF picks of the week, and we also like it as a same-game parlay leg.

Dont’e Thornton Jr. Over 33.5 Receiving Yards (-117)

If Thornton plays, this prop bet is a must. He’s averaging 25.5 yards per reception, so he may only need one or two catches to cash this prop. He’s topped this number in five games this season, including his 42-yard showing against Arkansas in Tennessee’s loss.

The Volunteers will need to throw more if they fall behind, which should benefit Thornton. He also has a decent matchup against Georgia’s pass defense, which is giving up 195.6 passing yards per game (36th in FBS).

• Tennessee First Half Spread +5.5
• Tennessee Alt Spread +7.5
• Alt Under 52.5

Total Odds: +254

While we think Georgia is going to win, we think Tennessee will keep it close.

The Bulldogs’ offense is in a rut, which the Volunteers should be able to take advantage of. Georgia has lost the first half in its last two games, and Carson Beck is struggling. That could lead to Kirby Smart leaning on the run game early, which should help Tennessee stay in the game before halftime.

We also like the alternative spread and alternative under in this same-game parlay. We’re doubling down on Tennessee to keep the game within a single touchdown, giving us extra value on the spread.

We’re trading some of that value for more protection on the Under, which we recommend raising to 52.5. This should be a defensive slugfest, but we’ll sell a couple of points to be safe in case there’s a seventh touchdown or an extra field goal.

• Moneyline: Georgia (-375). Georgia doesn’t lose at home and Tennessee’s offense is banged up.
• Spread: Tennessee +10 (-108). The Volunteers could win this game outright and shouldn’t be double-digit underdogs. Look for them to keep the score within single digits if they lose.
• Over/Under: Under 48 (-112). These are two superb defensive teams that are scuffling offensively. A 27-20-type of game seems likely.
• Carson Beck Over 0.5 Interceptions (-119). Beck is leading the nation in picks and has nine in his last four games. Look for him to throw another one against Tennessee’s ball-hawking secondary.
• Dont’e Thornton Jr. Over 33.5 Receiving Yards (-117). If Thornton plays, this is a low bar for him to clear given his penchant for splash plays.
• SGP – Tennessee 1H +5.5, Tennessee +7.5, Under 52.5 (+254): We think the Volunteers will keep the game close, especially early on. We’re also giving ourselves a bit more protection on the Under.