Betting Preview
Game Details
- Who: USC Trojans at Colorado Buffaloes
- When: Saturday, Sept. 30 (Week 5)
- Time: 9:00 a.m. PST / 12:00 p.m. EST
- Where: Folsom Field (Boulder, CO)
Betting Odds Summary
- Moneyline: USC -1200, Colorado +750
- Spread: USC -21.5 (-110), Colorado +21.5 (-110)
- Total: Over/Under 73.5 (-110/-110)
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. Subject to change.
“You better get me right now.”
Colorado Buffaloes head coach Deion Sanders had some words for his critics after a 42-6 blowout loss on the road against Bo Nix and No. 10 Oregon last weekend.
The absence of two-way star Travis Hunter has seemingly derailed the train-like momentum (Colorado’s National Championship futures odds dropped from +8000 to +30000 in just over a week) that the Buffaloes had. The late hit on Hunter in the Colorado State game, which resulted in an unnecessary roughness penalty, will sideline him for at least the next two weeks as well.
It’s hard to say if Colorado can hold on while Hunter heals, but we do know that all of the concerns from the Buffaloes’ narrow win at home against Colorado State were validated by their crushing road loss to the Ducks.
Even though the box score accurately represented Oregon’s offensive skill, the Ducks ultimately won the game in the trenches. Their offensive line gave Bo Nix enough time in the pocket to dissect Colorado’s defense. Further, they applied constant pressure on Shedeur Sanders on the other side of the ball, sacking him seven times and rushing him even more.
Now, the Buffaloes have to recalibrate before their massive home game against No. 8 USC this upcoming Saturday. However, it has been a very one-sided battle in recent history. The Trojans have dominated their last five meetings, winning all five bouts by an average margin of 18 points.
Can Deion Sanders and co. turn the ship back around at home against Heisman favorite Caleb Williams and USC? Or will the Colorado begin to free-fall?
Moneyline
The Buffaloes are substantial home underdogs with moneyline odds of +750. On the other hand, the Trojans are road favorites (-1200) after their strong 4-0 start, which includes wins over Arizona State, Stanford, Nevada and San Jose State. USC blew out its first three opponents but only beat a 1-3 Sun Devils squad by 14 points in its most recent game.
Could the Trojans’ recent underwhelming performance bleed over into this road game against Colorado? Don’t count on it.
Caleb Williams has this USC offense firing on all cylinders. He has thrown 15 touchdowns through the first four games of the regular season, the second-most in the country behind only Michael Pennix Jr.
To give an idea of the kind of mismatch this is: The Buffaloes’ defense ranks 100th in opponent points per game, 107th in opponent passing yards per game and 114th in opponent completion percentage, while the Trojans’ passing offense has received the fifth-highest grade from PFF thus far.
Colorado has a few areas that will prevent it from being competitive against top-tier squads like USC, namely its special teams play and offensive and defensive lines. There’s also plenty of tape on the Buffaloes now, so they have no more tricks up their sleeves. The Trojans are far superior in the areas that differentiate good teams from great teams.
Point Spread
Colorado’s disappointing performance on the road against Oregon has resulted in an enormous 21.5-point spread in favor of USC. Is this a justified line or inflated due to last week’s performance?
This is a nightmare matchup for the Buffaloes. Pro Football Focus has given the Trojans the third-highest grade for pass rush in the nation and the 41st-highest grade in pass coverage. Colorado has major issues with its offensive line, which were completely exposed last week.
USC does not have a strong rush defense, but the Trojans won’t need it much against a Buffaloes team that seems to avoid handing the ball off as much as possible. Colorado ranks 108th in rushing attempts per game through the first four games of the season and rushed merely 14 times last week outside of Shedeur Sanders’ scrambles.
“Coach Prime” could surprise everyone and decide to pound the ball in between the tackles a bit more, especially with top wide receiver Xavier Weaver’s status unknown after leaving the last game early with an apparent foot/ankle injury.
However, the game script may not be too favorable for that approach, especially if Caleb Williams gets hot and marches USC to a double-digit lead early in the game. If Weaver misses this game, the Buffs will be without their top two receiving targets, making an already uphill battle even more challenging.
Over/Under
This game is not projected to be much of a defensive battle, as the Over/Under for this matchup rests at 73.5 points. Colorado’s last bout was a nightmare offensively, so the point total in that game didn’t even sniff the assigned 70-point projection. The Trojans combined with the Sun Devils to score 70 points in their last game, however, so what can we expect here?
The point total outcome could wind up being affected one way or the other by the health of the Buffaloes’ current top wide receiver, Xavier Weaver. As noted above, Weaver exited the game against Oregon last week after suffering an undisclosed injury. His status for this game is unknown.
If he is ruled out, Colorado will be without Weaver and Travis Hunter, who suffered a lacerated liver after a late hit in the Colorado State game. If they both miss this game, Shedeur Sanders will have exceptional difficulty finding openings in the USC defense.
Keep an eye on Weaver’s status. If he can’t play, the Under could have some viability as the Trojans should shut down the Buffs’ offense.
Player Prop
Caleb Williams has looked the part of a Heisman winner after throwing for an astounding 15 touchdowns through his first four games while also chipping in three rushing touchdowns on the ground.
For this matchup against Colorado, Williams’ passing touchdown player prop line is at 3.5. It would be sensible to think Williams could eclipse that number against a struggling Buffs defense.
While Williams has played against some subpar teams this season, he will be against the same defense Bo Nix just carved up for 276 passing yards. Nix completed 28 of his 33 passes with three passing touchdowns and a rushing score.
With the entire nation’s eyes on this game, Williams has an opportunity to establish a strong foothold as the Heisman frontrunner for the second consecutive season if he dominates Colorado. Without Travis Hunter in the mix, he has a strong chance to do just that.
Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images
