College Football Week 11: Best Spread Bets

Florida is 4-4, which isn’t bad considering its brutal schedule. The Gators hung tough with Georgia last week but lost QB DJ Lagway to a hamstring injury. He’s questionable for this matchup, and Florida will struggle to find production at the quarterback spot if he can’t go.

Texas squeaked past Vanderbilt 27-24 last week, narrowly avoiding its second straight loss to an SEC opponent. Quinn Ewers isn’t playing at an elite level, but the Longhorns’ defense does a great job shutting down opponents.

This feels like a low-scoring, defensive game where the Gators find a way to cover.

Miami is undefeated despite frequently leaving holes for opponents to walk through. Heisman Trophy candidate Cam Ward is one of the best QBs in his class, but the Hurricanes’ defense is 54th in points allowed per game (24.3).

What started as an impressive season for Georgia Tech has fallen apart after back-to-back losses and multiple injuries. The Yellow Jackets are average in most categories and recently lost to two ranked teams, Louisville and Notre Dame, by double digits.

Look for Miami to cover the 10.5 points.

Purdue has lost seven straight games, including three games against ranked opponents. Its offense and defense have been terrible, ranking 119th in scoring (20.2 points per game) and 129th in points allowed (36.9 per game).

While Ohio State has bigger fish to fry, it needs to stay focused and win out to avoid potentially missing the CFP. The Buckeyes are coming off a massive win over Penn State and should run all over the Boilermakers’ porous defense.

Ohio State -37.5 is steep but viable.

Georgia QB Carson Beck has a 3:6 TD/INT ratio in two games against ranked SEC opponents this year and a 10:11 TD/INT ratio in his last five games. The Bulldogs’ defensive front woke up against Texas, but this team needs to find a way to limit turnovers.

Ole Miss put up 63 points against Arkansas in a tour de force last week as the Rebels look to stay alive for the CFP with an upset win. Jaxson Dart is one of the best QBs in the country and they’re top 10 in both offensive and defensive yards per play, but they lack Georgia’s championship experience.

Back the Bulldogs -2.5.

The defending champs aren’t howling anymore. Michigan has lost three of its last four, has virtually no passing game to speak of and hasn’t seen Donovan Edwards rush for over 100 yards all season. The Wolverines’ defense also lacks depth and isn’t great outside of one cornerback and the interior defensive line.

Undefeated Indiana is well-coached, hungry and confident. The Hoosiers have yet to beat a ranked team but demolished Nebraska, a team that’s built similar to Michigan. It wouldn’t be surprising to see them cover -13.5.

Mississippi State found its way back to the win column (albeit against UMass) after seven straight losses. The Bulldogs average a terrible 3.9 yards per carry, are 72nd in average scoring (25.8 points per game) and have a defense that’s 114th in EPA per play.

Tennessee dominates the point of attack, runs the ball exceptionally well and gives up the second-fewest yards per play. The Volunteers should win fairly easily, although Nico Iamaleava’s recent troubles in the pocket present a path for Mississippi State to cover the spread.

Coach Kalen DeBoer may be able to save Alabama’s CFP hopes with a win against an LSU team that’s knocking on the door of a playoff spot. The Crimson Tide looked rejuvenated during their 34-0 win against Missouri but have serious problems at cornerback. Quarterback Jalen Milroe also isn’t seeing the field as well as he was early in the season.

The Tigers might not have the best defense in the world, but they have a great offensive line and a QB in Garrett Nussmeier who has excelled in pushing the ball downfield. That said, they need to take better care of the ball and establish the run to avoid becoming one-dimensional like they were in their loss to Texas A&M.

It’s reasonable to expect Alabama to cover here.

Remember at the start of the season when FSU was a top-10 team in the country? The 1-8 Seminoles have lost two games against ranked opponents by an average of 19 points and have one of the worst offenses in the nation, ranking fourth-worst in yards per play (4.2) and scoring the second-fewest points per game (14.4).

Notre Dame sent a message with its 51-14 win against Navy a couple of weeks ago that extended its winning streak to six games. Despite not being considered an offensive juggernaut, the Fighting Irish are 17th in average scoring (36.6 points per game) and have the fourth-best defensive EPA per play.

It wouldn’t be shocking for Notre Dame to cover -25.5.

Washington is an interesting upset pick this week. At 5-4, the Huskies have no chance of reaching the CFP, but they already beat Michigan and USC. They also have a defense that ranks 13th in yards per play (4.6) and 26th in points allowed per game (21).

Penn State suffered its first loss of the season to Ohio State last weekend. QB Drew Allar was held to 146 passing yards and an interception as the Nittany Lions only managed 270 total yards of offense – well below their season standard (439.5 yards per game).

Washington gives up the third-fewest yards per pass play and will challenge PSU, which is why the Huskies have a solid chance at covering the line.

BYU was recently given the fourth seed in the first round of CFP projected rankings. The Cougars bank on their solid defense and quarterback Jake Retzlaff, who has succeeded thus far with 21 total touchdowns and seven interceptions.

Utah’s offense is stuck in first gear without Cam Rising under center. The Utes are averaging just 12.5 points over their last four games while their defense is still 40th in average EPA.

BYU should be able to cover this spread and continue its perfect season if everything goes according to plan.

Don’t look now, but South Carolina just beat No. 10 Texas A&M and was within five total points of beating LSU and Alabama. The Gamecocks excel at the point of attack, particularly on defense, and ran the ball to great effect last week.

Vanderbilt has a similar reputation to USC as a team that can cause havoc, even if it isn’t a true contender. A win over Alabama and a three-point loss to Texas stand out for a team with an option-heavy offense and a defense that gives up 23.6 points per game (47th).

The Commodores are a fun story, but South Carolina’s strength on the defensive line should help the Gamecocks cover the spread.

Deion Sanders warned the college football world about Colorado years ago, and that’s finally panning out. The 6-2 Buffaloes have won five of their last six games and are less dependent on their star players than last year thanks to their drastically improved defensive line.

Texas Tech bounced back from consecutive losses to Big 12 opponents to take down undefeated Iowa State 23-22 last week. The Red Raiders are 20th in the nation in scoring but 103rd in points allowed per game (32.4) and just outside the bottom 10 in sack percentage, so Shedeur Sanders should have plenty of time in the pocket to pick apart their defense.

Colorado -3.5 is a solid play.

Syracuse recovered from a 21-3 deficit last week to beat Virginia Tech at home and stay alive in the ACC postseason race. QB Kyle McCord isn’t playing at an elite level anymore, but running back LeQuint Allen ran for 121 yards last weekend to help mask an unimpressive defense.

BC is on a three-game losing streak and needs to get more out of an offense that’s 114th in yards per play and 97th in points per game (22.1). The Eagles gave up 73 points in their last two games combined and could struggle to take down the visiting Orange.

Oklahoma put up 59 points in its dominant win over Maine last weekend but averaged just 8.7 points in its three SEC matchups before that. The Sooners don’t have a reliable quarterback and aren’t nearly strong enough on defense to overcome their offensive deficiencies.

Missouri was wildly overrated at the start of the year and was shut out 34-0 by Alabama last time out. The Tigers had a bye last week and will come in fresh, though it’s hard to find an area where they hold an edge.

This should be a low-scoring affair, but Oklahoma has a sneakily solid shot at home.

Nevada is not a contender nor a threat to upset Boise State. The Wolf Pack were outscored 96-55 during a three-game losing streak against Fresno State, Hawaii and Colorado State and are 71st in rushing yards allowed per game (154.8).

The Broncos have only played one one-score game since their 37-34 loss to Oregon in Week 2 and have arguably the best offensive weapon in the sport in Ashton Jeanty, who’s averaging 190.6 rushing yards per game and 8.0 yards per attempt. However, Boise State’s defense is fairly average, giving Nevada a path to cover the huge spread.