49ers vs. Seahawks TNF Week 6: Odds, Predictions, Picks & Best Bets

This is a colossal game for both sides, especially the 49ers. They are in danger of falling to 0-4 in the NFC, 0-3 against NFC West competition and two games below .500.

San Francisco’s recent descent has been stunning, but also unlucky. The Niners would have won against Arizona on Sunday if not for kicker Jake Moody’s high-ankle sprain, and their three losses have been by a combined 10 points. They’ve also been without reigning Offensive Player of the Year Christian McCaffrey all year, which has contributed to the slow start.

But in the NFL, your record is all that matters. No one feels sorry for a banged-up team that’s 2-3 despite having a plus-20 point differential.

The Seahawks boast just a plus-8 point differential through five weeks and needed overtime to defeat the lowly New England Patriots in Week 2, but they’re still atop the division in rookie coach Mike Macdonald’s first season at the helm. That’s largely due to Geno Smith and an offense that’s seventh in the NFL in yards per game (376.2).

Still, this reeks of a get-right spot for San Francisco and its defense, which has still been one of the better units in the NFL (12th in points allowed, 10th in yards allowed) despite coughing up late leads to the Rams and Cardinals.

The 49ers have dominated this head-to-head matchup lately, winning five straight matchups by an average of 15.2 points. Thus, we’re backing San Francisco to get off the mat and win as a road favorite in the Emerald City.

It’s tempting to hold off on betting the spread until it drops to 49ers -3 to avoid the hook. However, it’s worth noting that while they’ve been bad in close games, their two wins have come by an average of 15 points.

This game should be close, but San Francisco is the better team and is more than capable of covering -3.5.

The Seahawks are giving up just 22.8 points per game, but that number is a little misleading since they faced three dreadful offenses to start the season. Since then, they’ve been shredded by the Detroit Lions (42 points) and New York Giants (29 points), revealing the vulnerabilities in their defense.

Seattle’s offense can score with anyone, exceeding 20 points and 300 yards in all five games this year. So can the 49ers, who rank 10th in scoring and second in total yardage.

With both offenses in the top 10 for yardage, we should see plenty of fireworks in this game. Take the Over, despite its relatively high number.

Jordan Mason Over 82.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

This is a lofty number, but Mason has proven up to the task in his first taste of leading an NFL backfield. He leads the league in rushing attempts, ranks third in rushing yards per game (107.2) and has cleared the Over on this prop bet in four of five games this year.

Seattle’s defense is reeling, especially on the ground. It just allowed 175 rushing yards to the Giants and ranks 20th in rushing yards allowed per game (128).

With McCaffrey still sidelined, Mason will get the bulk of San Francisco’s carries and is poised for another huge game, especially if the Niners pull ahead and go run-heavy in the second half.

• Check out our full Week 6 TNF props.

Geno Smith Over 35.5 Passing Attempts (-115)

Smith has easily gone over this number in three of his last four games, averaging 43.5 passing attempts per game during that stretch.

Not only is Smith leading the NFL in passing yards (1,466), but he’s also tops in passing attempts (199) and completions (143). That’s surprising considering Seattle has two solid running backs in Zach Charbonnet and Kenneth Walker III.

Smith has been airing it out and will likely do so again this week, especially if the Seahawks fall behind or become engaged in another shootout.

• Moneyline: 49ers (-190). The Niners need a win in the worst way, especially against a divisional opponent. We’re backing them to bounce back and get it.
• Spread: 49ers -3.5 (-105). Again, we’d love to see this number get to -3, but it probably won’t. We’ll still back San Francisco to win by at least four points since it has done so in both of its wins this season.
• Total: Over 49.5 (-105). These are two great offenses and a pair of defenses that have surrendered points. This series has a tendency to be high-scoring, too, so we’re backing the Over, even though it’s a high bar to clear.
• Jordan Mason Over 82.5 Rushing Yards (-110). Mason is second in the NFL in total rushing yards and has eclipsed this number in four of five games this season. The Seahawks are giving up rushing yards galore, so look for Mason to take advantage.
• Geno Smith Over 35.5 Passing Attempts (-115). The score will almost certainly dictate this, but Smith is averaging just under 40 attempts per game and has hit the Over in three of his last four games. He should do so again on Thursday.

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