Baltimore Ravens vs. Kansas City Chiefs NFL Week 1: TNF Promos, Odds, Predictions, Picks & Best Bets

The last time Kansas City appeared in a meaningful game, Mahomes completed a game-winning touchdown pass to Mecole Hardman in overtime to win Super Bowl LVIII over the San Francisco 49ers.

Kevin Harlan’s call with video, declaring the Chiefs a dynasty. Back to back. Dude nailed the call. pic.twitter.com/wdFtB8uoqu

— Chase Snyder (@ChasingSnyder) February 12, 2024

With the win, the Chiefs secured their third Super Bowl championship in the last five years. They also became the first team to win back-to-back Super Bowls since Tom Brady and the New England Patriots nearly 20 years ago.

Kansas City enters the season with most of the same skill players as last year, albeit with several key additions at wide receiver via first-round draft pick Xavier Worthy and veteran Marquise Brown.

However, Brown won’t be available against his old team in Week 1 after dislocating his shoulder in the preseason, which would open up more opportunities for Rashee Rice, Justin Watson, Skyy Moore and Hardman.

That said, Kelce remains the Chiefs’ biggest pass-catching threat. While the 34-year-old suffered a significant decline in production last year, he still led the team in receiving yards during the regular season before catching fire in the playoffs.

Kelce torched the Ravens for 116 yards and a touchdown on 11 catches in last year’s AFC title game and should be busy in Week 1, especially since Taylor Swift is a betting lock to be in attendance.

Accordingly, we like several Travis Kelce prop bets, including his anytime touchdown odds (+105) and him to go over 58.5 receiving yards (-113).

Jackson has run for an eye-popping 5,258 yards since debuting in 2018 and is already regarded as one of the best rushing quarterbacks ever. With Henry onboard, Baltimore now has two of the best runners in the league.

Even at age 30, Henry is undoubtedly the most talented weapon Jackson has had. Henry’s ability to blast through opposing defensive lines and score in short-yardage situations will take some of the pressure off Jackson and make the Ravens’ offense even more dynamic, opening up endless play-action opportunities.

With such a run-centric offense, Baltimore’s success will be largely dependent on its offensive line. However, the Ravens experienced major turnover there after letting Kevin Zeitler, John Simpson and Morgan Moses go during the offseason. While they haven’t named their starters on the offensive line, head coach John Harbaugh said he was impressed with the new line during their joint practice with the Green Bay Packers.

Baltimore is 8-9 when Jackson is sacked at least four times compared to 50-10 when he’s been sacked fewer than four times, so keeping him upright will be pivotal against a tough Kansas City defense that averaged 3.4 sacks per game last year.

The biggest question surrounding the Ravens’ defense is how they will adjust to the loss of defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald, who replaced Pete Carroll as the Seattle Seahawks’ head coach. Baltimore finished first in DVOA, points allowed and sacks last year, but some regression is to be expected in the wake of Macdonald’s departure.

Chiefs Spread -3 (-102)

We don’t see anyone stopping Mahomes & Co., especially at Arrowhead. The two-time MVP is 36-11 at home in his career. He’s also 15-4 in September and 5-2 on Thursdays.

After beating the Ravens by a touchdown on the road in their most recent matchup, we like the Chiefs to win by at least a field goal here and cover the spread. Kansas City is mostly healthy and a well-oiled machine at this point, whereas Baltimore may struggle with its new-look offensive line and defensively without Macdonald.

Mahomes is 4-1 against the Ravens (including the postseason), so look for him and the defending Super Bowl champs to kick off the season with a win.

Over 46.5 (-115)

Don’t let the 17-10 score from the AFC title game fool you, as that game was played in 45-degree weather with precipitation. The Chiefs have cleared this total in eight of their last 10 season openers, while Baltimore has scored at least 25 points in every season opener since 2018.

Mahomes has 12 touchdown passes in four regular-season games versus the Ravens, while Jackson and Henry will be tough to stop. This game could quickly turn into a shootout, making the Over a viable play.

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