Betting Preview
Game Details
- Who: Chicago Bears at Washington Commanders
- When: Thursday, Oct. 5 (Week 5)
- Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Where: FedExField (Landover, MD)
Betting Odds Summary
- Moneyline: Bears +235, Commanders -290
- Spread: Bears +6.5 (-112), Commanders -6.5 (-108)
- Total: Over/Under 44.5 (-110/-110)
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. Subject to change.
What’s going on with the Chicago Bears? Besides the general disarray on both sides of the ball, there are also issues in the locker room. Wide receiver Chase Claypool did not even show up for their Week 4 game against the Denver Broncos because the team allegedly asked him to stay home.
The Bears would have suffered less heartbreak had they stayed home, too, as they lost by just three points. It was a close game the whole way, but a failed fourth-down attempt on Denver’s 18-yard line with less than three minutes to go ultimately resulted in their demise.
This was Chicago’s best chance yet to log a win with a home game against another winless opponent. Unfortunately, the Bears fell short in that quest, but there could be a silver lining.
Chicago’s quarterback play has been lacking this season, as Justin Fields has been highly inefficient (31st in completion percentage) and has made numerous suspect throws (third in interceptions).
Meanwhile, the Washington Commanders successfully put their Week 3 beatdown (37-3) at the hands of the Buffalo Bills behind them. However, they still succumbed to a narrow three-point overtime loss last week against the Philadelphia Eagles. Sadly, moral victories don’t help the record.
The Commanders can’t afford many more losses if they want to stay competitive in the NFC East. Can Washington secure the seemingly easy win against Chicago, or will the Bears band together for an utterly shocking upset?
Moneyline
The Commanders enter this Thursday Night Football game as clear favorites with moneyline odds of -290. Meanwhile, Chicago is a sizable road underdog with +235 odds of victory.
Despite Fields’ rough start to the season, he did show some positive signs in Week 4 against the Broncos, throwing for 335 yards and four touchdowns. Still, Denver’s overall defense grade and coverage grade from Pro Football Focus are dead last in the NFL, which could be an indication not to put too much stock into Fields’ strong outing against a terrible defensive unit.
Meanwhile, Washington couldn’t get much going in the ground game last week outside of Sam Howell scrambles, as Antonio Gibson and Brian Robinson Jr. combined to rush 20 times for merely 64 yards. Still, the Eagles have arguably the best defensive line in the game, so that is not an indication of what to expect against the Bears’ horrendous defensive line.
The Commanders will be playing at home and have a much stronger defense than Chicago. Accordingly, Washington should secure a reasonably straightforward win in this one.
Point Spread
The point spread for this game has widened to 6.5 points in favor of the Commanders after opening at 5.5 points on Sunday night.
This line movement makes sense. It is tough to put faith in the Bears’ offense even though they posted 28 points last week. The Broncos allowed 70 points to the Miami Dolphins the week before, making Chicago’s output appear tame by comparison.
While Washington’s defense has not performed up to the level it’s capable of thus far, it shouldn’t have much trouble against Fields and co.
The Commanders can rally around their strong defensive line that features Chase Young, Jonathan Allen and Montez Sweat. This unit will put substantial pressure on Fields, who has been known to make questionable decisions with the ball.
Expect multiple Bears turnovers as a result. Washington will convert on one or two of them and cover the spread, winning by at least a touchdown.
Over/Under
The Over/Under for this game has held steady at 44.5 total points.
Both teams are coming off high-scoring matchups in Week 4. Chicago’s game saw 59 total points, while the Commanders’ contest had 65 points. Additionally, three of the Bears’ four games have gone over 44.5 points. Two of Washington’s four games have.
Although the Commanders rank 29th in opponent points per game, that’s more a reflection of the schedule than Washington’s defensive talent. After all, the Commanders have already faced two of the NFL’s best offenses (Philadelphia and Buffalo).
As alluded to, Washington’s defense has not hit its stride yet, but a home game against the worst team in the league is a perfect opportunity to do so.
Furthermore, Howell and Fields are too unpredictable to count on substantial offensive output. Fields will not have the same luck against the Commanders that he had against Denver, as there is a considerable gap between those two defenses in the secondary and in pass-rushing talent.
Additionally, Howell’s inexperience and inconsistency will likely limit his upside, even against an inadequate Chicago defense. Howell’s best game has been a 299-yard, two-touchdown outing against the Broncos. Expect a similar performance here, which likely won’t be enough to push the point total over the edge.
Accordingly, the Under is the preferred play here.
Player Prop
Fields’ rushing yards player prop line for this game is 48.5 yards. He has cleared this line in only one game so far (Week 1), but he nearly got there with 47 rushing yards in Week 3.
What was the common theme in the two games where Fields had his most rushing yards? Both games were against talented defensive lines that flushed Fields out of the pocket due to the overwhelming pressure they put on him.
Ultimately, Fields will be forced to make plays with his legs this week due to Washington’s pass rush and tight coverage in the secondary. He’ll be quick to take off when the pocket collapses around him and his receivers aren’t open, resulting in a large yardage total for him on the ground.
Take the Over here.
Photo by Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images
