Best NFL Prop Bets: Season-Long Player Props

Over/Under 490.5 Yards (-115/-115)

The NFL record for most passing yards in a game is 554, set by Los Angeles Rams quarterback Norm Van Brocklin on Sept. 28, 1951, in a 54-14 win over the New York Yanks. Van Brocklin was 27-of-41 passing with five touchdowns and two interceptions, becoming the first NFL player to surpass 500 passing yards in a single game.

Remarkably, over 70 years later and with the uptick in passing in the NFL, no quarterback has broken that record. Quarterbacks have thrown for more than 490.5 yards only nine times over the past 10 seasons. Those nine games have occurred over seven seasons, which means that if you bet this prop every year, you’d be 7-3 and profitable.

However, no quarterback has thrown for more than 490 yards in a single game in the past two seasons.

Accordingly, the Under is a viable play on this prop for several reasons. For starters, only a handful of quarterbacks could realistically hit this number. Those quarterbacks would likely need to be playing indoors or in good weather. They’d also need to be playing at a fast enough pace to get more possessions and put up more yards.

Defensive coordinators are quicker to make adjustments now, and with a 17-game season, the goal is to keep players healthy. It’s highly unlikely that a team up by a few touchdowns would pass enough or keep their starting QB in long enough to put up the necessary stats, as teams with big leads often run the ball to milk the clock and limit injuries. The defense would probably also have some pride and try to stop the opponent from breaking the record. Furthermore, overtime is now only 10 minutes instead of 15, which allows less time for stat accumulation if a game reaches that point.

Based on their track records, Patrick Mahomes, Tua Tagovailoa, Joe Burrow, C.J. Stroud and Jared Goff seem like the most likely candidates to hit the Over. Week 8 for Mahomes at the Las Vegas Raiders or Week 10 vs. the Denver Broncos could be two potential monster passing games for him. A Week 15 showdown between the Miami Dolphins and Houston Texans could also be a shootout between Tagovailoa and Stroud.

Over/Under 89.5 Yards (-115/-115)

The longest rush in NFL history is 99 yards, achieved twice: by Derrick Henry in 2018 with the Tennessee Titans and Tony Dorsett in 1983 with the Dallas Cowboys.

Over the past 10 seasons, there have been five times the longest rush of the season was over 89.5 yards, and five times it went under. The longest rush last season was by New York Jets running back Breece Hall, who had an 83-yard scamper in Week 1 against the Buffalo Bills on Monday Night Football. The last three seasons, the longest rush has been under 89.5 yards.

Here are the five times that a player has gone over this number in the past 10 seasons:

• 99 yards: Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans, 2018
• 98 yards: Ronald Jones II, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 2020
• 97 yards: Lamar Miller, Miami Dolphins, 2014
• 97 yards: Lamar Miller, Houston Texans, 2018
• 91 yards: Damien Williams, Kansas City Chiefs, 2019
• 90 yards: Leonard Fournette, Jacksonville Jaguars, 2017

With offenses less likely to punt around midfield and in opponent territory, there are likely to be fewer punts downed inside the 10-yard line. When they do get pinned, teams are more likely to rely on the passing game to pick up a few yards and give them some breathing room. Thus, running backs will likely have fewer opportunities to break off a 90-yard run. The Under seems more probable here, even though it only takes one long run at any point in the season to cash the Over.

Given the Miami Dolphins’ speed at running back (Raheem Mostert, De’Von Achane, Jaylen Wright) and an offense predicated on motion and misdirection, they seem to have a great chance at ripping off a long run.

Travis Etienne Jr., James Cook, Breece Hall, Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs are a few other running backs with the necessary speed to run away from a defense at the second and third levels and make a 90-yard run.

Over/Under 92.5 Yards (-115/-115)

Not surprisingly, the longest reception in NFL history is 99 yards, a feat accomplished 14 times in seven different decades. The first player to do it was Andy Farkas back in 1939 for the Washington Redskins. The most recent players to do it were Victor Cruz (New York Giants) and Wes Welker (New England Patriots), who both had a 99-yard catch in 2011.

Over the past 10 seasons, seven players have accounted for eight catches of 93 yards or longer, including JuJu Smith-Schuster, who had 97-yard catches in back-to-back seasons in 2017 and 2018.

Typically, these long catches involve a “go route” from inside the 10-yard line, a great throw from the quarterback and a great catch by the receiver, who must have enough speed to evade the safety or cornerback chasing him. There are a few running backs on the list of longest catches over the past decade, but most players are wideouts.

This is another bet where the Under makes sense. For a player to cash the Over, his team needs to be throwing the ball from its own 7-yard line or closer. Teams this close to their end zone rarely want to implement the five- or seven-step dropback required to give the wide receiver enough time to get downfield and allow a reception this long to happen.

Justin Jefferson, Jaylen Waddle, Tyreek Hill, Zay Flowers, Ja’Marr Chase, George Pickens, Tank Dell, Christian Kirk, Xavier Worthy and Jameson Williams are a few of the many wide receivers who could potentially cash this ticket for a bettor.

Over/Under 62.5 Yards (-115/-115)

The record for the longest field goal made was an incredible 66-yarder by Justin Tucker in Week 3 of the 2021 season against the Detroit Lions. The kick was attempted with three seconds left and with the Baltimore Ravens down 17-16 against the Lions, so the Ravens won the game.

There have only been three total field goals of 63 yards or more made in the past 10 seasons, and only one of them was outdoors – when Carolina Panthers kicker Graham Gano booted a game-winning 63-yarder in 2018 against the New York Giants.

This is another bet where the Under looks more realistic because not every kicker can make a 63-yarder and because there won’t be many attempts. The only two times in a game that a kick like this will even be attempted are at the end of both halves. And if it’s at the end of the game, something has likely gone wrong on the final drive, otherwise the kicking team would be closer.

Kickers are certainly getting more accurate at hitting field goals of 55 yards and longer, but there is a huge difference between a 55-yarder and an attempt of 63 yards or longer.

Justin Tucker, Jake Elliott, Matt Prater, Harrison Butker and Evan McPherson are the best bets to make one of these long kicks. If there was a game in Mexico City at Estadio Azteca, that would be an opportunity as well due to the altitude, but there is no international NFL game there this season because of renovations to the stadium.

The Denver Broncos play at the highest altitude, so a game at Denver is more conducive to a kick of this length. Perhaps Butker in a Week 18 game at Denver could have a chance, especially if the Chiefs have nothing to lose and their playoff spot is already sewn up.

Photo by Dan Istitene/Getty Images

The sheer volume of NFL prop bets can feel endless, but most can be grouped into a few main types of categories.

One is a game-specific prop, which has to do with the outcome of the game. This could be a wager on whether the total points will be odd/even or what the first scoring play will be.

Another kind is a team-specific prop, which is a prop on one of the two teams in a matchup. This might be a wager on how many points one team will score or which team will score the last points of the game.

Lastly, there are player-specific prop bets. These are usually wagers on a player’s statistics for that game, like how many rushing yards or touchdowns they’ll accumulate. This can be a fun way to bet on your favorite player.

With so many categories for each player and team, one game can easily have hundreds of prop bets available. Some sportsbooks will also have special props available for certain players or boosted odds on specific prop markets.

It can be easy to get carried away with NFL prop bets, so make sure to target only a handful of players or markets that seem like good plays based on your research or recent trends.

You can also combine multiple prop bets into a parlay or same-game parlay, although these wagers are riskier and less likely to hit.

There is seemingly a limitless selection of NFL prop bets out there, but we’ve taken the time to download numerous NFL betting apps and scour our favorite sportsbooks for the ones we feel most confident in.

On top of our intensive research, we also have years of experience in the sports betting industry and several years of NFL betting under our belts, so we know a good NFL prop from a bad NFL prop when we see one.

Lastly, we only recommend bets that have a realistic chance of winning. We aren’t going to advise making a bet just because it has a high potential payout if the odds are long or the market seems too risky.