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The Super Bowl will be played on Sunday, Feb. 11, between the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas. The Super Bowl has always been one of the most anticipated days on the sports calendar, but the betting boom has helped grow the game to an even larger audience.
As legal wagering expands, betting interest will grow on Super Bowl Sunday. If you’re one of the bettors participating in the action, we have a few tips and strategies to note before kickoff.
Total Yards and Explosive Plays Are Indicators
NFL games seem to be won in the red zone, but this isn’t the whole story in the Super Bowl. In the Big Game, total yards matter when running and throwing the football.
Teams that rush for more yards in the Super Bowl have been dominant over the years. They’re 42-15 on the moneyline and 40-14-3 against the spread.
The Eagles dominated the Chiefs regarding total yards in Super Bowl LVII in part by winning the line of scrimmage. Philadelphia outgained Kansas City 417-340 in total yardage and rushed for 43 more yards but ultimately lost the game by a field goal.
If you can identify the team with the ground advantage, the numbers show they will cover more often than not. This year, the 49ers have a slight advantage (third in rushing yards, first in rushing touchdowns) over the Chiefs (sixth and eighth, respectively).
Passing yards aren’t as critical as gains on the ground, but explosive plays through the air are also a vital success indicator. Teams that average more passing yards per attempt are 44-13 straight up and 37-17-3 against the spread.
San Francisco has the advantage here as well, ranking first in net yards per passing attempt during the regular season. Kansas City was 13th.
The passing yards per attempt trend didn’t come to fruition when the Eagles faced the Chiefs, but it was evident in Super Bowl LVI between the Los Angeles Rams and Cincinnati Bengals. Matthew Stafford averaged nearly an extra yard per attempt over Joe Burrow, which helped propel the Rams to their first championship since the 1999 season.
Favorites Have the Upper Hand
Even though the Super Bowl features the best team in the AFC and NFC, it doesn’t mean the playing field is even. Bettors taking the favorite in every Super Bowl would be in the green over the years.
Favorites are 37-19 straight up and 29-23-2 against the spread. The largest upset in the Big Game was in Super Bowl III when Joe Namath’s New York Jets beat the Baltimore Colts 16-7 as an 18-point underdog.
There was an upset in Super Bowl LVII when Kansas City prevailed as a 1.5-point underdog. Before that matchup, favorites hoisted the Lombardi Trophy in three of the past four games with the Rams (2022), Chiefs (2020) and New England Patriots (2019) all winning.
The lone underdog over that stretch to win the Super Bowl was Tom Brady’s Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Buccaneers took down the Chiefs as three-point underdogs in Super Bowl LV.
For the second year in a row, Kansas City is a slight underdog in the Big Game heading into Super Bowl LVIII against San Francisco. Will history repeat itself?
Perhaps. Favorites have the upper hand for a reason and it has shown throughout Super Bowl history.
Totals are a Toss-up
There are plenty of trends to pick a game-winner and the team that covers in the Super Bowl, but the same can’t be said for totals. The Over/Under depends on the teams who match up in the Big Game.
The Over is 28-28 in Super Bowl history. There was no total posted for Super Bowl I, so we only have data for 56 games.
Super Bowl XXIX between the San Francisco 49ers and San Diego Chargers featured the most points ever scored in the Big Game. The 49ers won 49-26, with the two teams combining for 75 points.
Last year’s game between Kansas City and Philadelphia totaled 73 points, the second-highest in NFL history.
Even though there isn’t a solid historical trend for Super Bowl totals, the Under is 4-1 over the past five games. Based on recent outings, last year’s 73-point game was an outlier.
The Over/Under for Super Bowl LVIII opened at 47.5 points.
Time of Possession Matters
Keeping an opponent off the field has yielded success in the Super Bowl. Teams that win the time of possession battle are 41-16 straight up and 39-14-3 ATS.
The Eagles came up short last year despite winning time of possession, but Super Bowl LVI supported this trend.
Los Angeles held the ball for over one minute more than the Bengals, leading to a win. However, Cincinnati still covered the 4.5-point spread, losing by three.
Protecting the Football is Key
Turnover margin is a critical stat in the NFL. Teams that protect the football and force their opponents to make mistakes tend to win games.
There have been 45 Super Bowls with a turnover advantage, including last year’s game. The team with fewer turnovers is 38-7 straight up and 36-8-1 ATS.
Philadelphia was -1 in the turnover battle last year, and its mistake resulted in a Kansas City fumble recovery for a touchdown. This tied the game at 14-14 when the Eagles had a realistic chance to take a double-digit lead and swung the momentum back to the Chiefs.
The latest outright loss for a team that won the turnover margin was Cincinnati two years ago. The Bengals were +2 for their turnover differential but lost outright. However, they still covered the spread.
20 Points is Critical
The more points a team scores, the more likely they are to win the Super Bowl. This makes sense on paper, but the numbers show how valuable scoring is in the Big Game.
Teams that don’t score over 20 points have rarely prevailed. Before the 2007 New York Giants, no team had won the Super Bowl without scoring over 20 points.
This didn’t happen again until the 2018 season when the Patriots won the Big Game with just 13 points. They allowed only three points in the lowest-scoring Super Bowl ever.
It’s hard to win when you don’t score. There have been 22 Super Bowl teams who haven’t scored 14 points, and they’re 1-21 straight up and ATS. This shows how unusual New England’s victory was.
Bottom Line
While trends can tell us a lot, they shouldn’t determine your final bet for the Super Bowl. Trends should be used as a tool to help you reach your conclusion.
However, in Super Bowl history, the team that plays better and cleaner overall has an advantage over the competition. When betting on the Super Bowl, consider every outcome possible and think about which team will have more rushing yards, create explosive offensive plays and not turn the ball over frequently.
These categories have been key metrics for Super Bowl winners in the past and always should be, as they’re critical to winning any NFL game. Every mistake and big play in the Super Bowl is magnified, so these vital indicators mean even more than they do during the regular season.
