Betting Preview
Game Details
- Matchup: Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals
- Date: Sunday, Nov. 5 (Week 9)
- Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
- Location: Paycor Stadium (Cincinnati)
Odds Summary
- Moneyline: Bills +108, Bengals -126
- Spread: Bills +1.5 (-105), Bengals -1.5 (-115)
- Total: Over/Under 49.5 (-110/-110)
Odds from FanDuel Sportsbook. Subject to change.
The Buffalo Bills have not produced a convincing performance in a month and will face a stiff challenge from the resurgent and healthy Cincinnati Bengals in Week 9 of the 2023 NFL schedule.
The Bills (+1200 Super Bowl odds) have failed to cover in four straight weeks and are 2-2 straight up during that stretch. They’re also a half-game above the New York Jets in the AFC East and do not hold the tiebreaker.
The Bengals (+1700 futures odds) would miss the playoffs if they started today. However, Cincinnati has won three straight, quickly becoming one of the league’s scariest teams yet again.
Moneyline
In what’s projected to be a close game, we believe Cincinnati’s moneyline is the most viable play of the two options.
Buffalo ranks third in scoring defense (17 points allowed per game) and fourth in scoring offense (27.8 points per game), outranking the Bengals in both categories despite a recent stretch of disappointing outings.
Cincinnati is favored by a point and a half at home, which means that the oddsmakers view the Bills as a slightly better team on a neutral field. That may be true of the season as a whole, but it is not a fair representation of where both teams stand in Week 9.
Buffalo has hit a rough patch over the last month, while the Bengals have improved every week as Joe Burrow’s calf has progressively healed. They beat the San Francisco 49ers 31-17 on Sunday as Burow went 28/32 for 283 yards and three touchdowns while the defense forced Brock Purdy into two interceptions and a fumble.
Cincinnati’s defense has adopted a “bend-don’t-break” strategy recently, giving up 379.3 yards per game during its three-game win streak. Even so, the Bengals have held opponents to 16.7 points per game and forced eight turnovers during the same run.
The Bills, on the other hand, look like they miss Matt Milano and Tre’Davious White more with each passing week. They have allowed 20.3 points per game over the last month compared to 13.8 during their first four games.
This is only the second time that Burrow and Josh Allen face each other. Burrow got the best of Allen in last year’s playoffs, so expect a similar outcome this week.
Point Spread
The point spread is so small that we like Cincinnati to cover 1.5 at home, as NFL games are rarely decided by only one point.
The Bengals are 3-3-1 against the spread while Buffalo is 3-5. But whereas the Bills have not covered in four straight games, Cincinnati is on a three-game cover streak.
The quarterback battle will be pivotal in determining which team wins and covers.
Burrow is coming off his best performance of the season and has averaged a 65 QBR over the last three weeks. Allen still leads the league in that department (77.0), though, in part because he owns the NFL’s highest completion rate (71.7%).
Where Allen has faltered is with his turnovers. He’s thrown exactly two touchdowns and one interception in each of the last four games, whereas Burrow has eight TDs and two INTs in his last three outings combined.
Another situation to monitor will be the fight inside the red zone. Both teams rank top-10 in both red zone touchdown percentage allowed and red zone TD scoring percentage. The difference between a field goal and a touchdown could be the difference between a win and a loss here.
Over/Under
Buffalo’s defensive decline and the Bengals’ surging offense make us lean towards the Over in respect to the Over/Under.
Our pick goes against the season trends, however. Cincinnati’s Over is 3-4, while the Bills’ Over is 3-5.
If Mac Jones and a New England Patriots offense that entered Week 7 with the worst scoring output in the league can score 29 points against Buffalo, then a red-hot Burrow coming off a monstrous week can put up similar numbers.
On the other side, the Bengals are giving up a lot of yards but are bailing themselves out with takeaways. Allen can and will put the ball in harm’s way, but he’ll also seize scoring opportunities in ways that Joshua Dobbs, Geno Smith and Purdy did not during Cincinnati’s win streak.
There will be an extra layer of tension because of the playoff-like atmosphere surrounding this matchup, but it shouldn’t take long for the offenses to settle in.
Player Prop
As much press as the Burrow-Allen battle will draw, one of the most interesting player props on the board is Joe Mixon Over 62.5 rushing yards (-114).
The Bills’ pass defense has done a nice job against strong QBs, holding Tua Tagovailoa and Trevor Lawrence to one touchdown apiece. However, their run defense is only ranked 22nd and gives up 122 yards per game.
Along with the continued absence of Milano and Mixon finding success on the ground last week (87 yards and a touchdown on 16 carries), the Bengals’ lead back should have another strong performance. He hit the Over on this line in four of his last five games, averaging 64.7 rushing yards per game. Thus, the Over is playable.
Photo by Cooper Neill/Getty Images
