Bills-Bucs Betting Preview
Game Details
- Matchup: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Buffalo Bills
- Date: Thursday, Oct. 26 (Week 8)
- Time: 8:15 p.m. EST
- Location: Highmark Stadium (Orchard Park, NY)
Odds Summary
- Moneyline: Buccaneers +360, Bills -460
- Spread: Buccaneers +8.5 (-110), Bills -8.5 (-110)
- Total: Over/Under 42.5 (-115 /-105)
Odds from FanDuel Sportsbook. Subject to change.
The 2023 NFL schedule continues with a jam-packed Week 8 slate as all 32 teams are in action over the coming days. The festivities begin with a Thursday Night Football showdown between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Buffalo Bills, both of whom are coming off disappointing Week 7 losses.
A field goal in the final seconds from the Atlanta Falcons handed the Buccaneers a 16-13 loss at home, while the Bills hope to rebound from their 29-25 upset loss to the New England Patriots, which also came down to the final seconds.
The Buccaneers can ill-afford to lose three straight games and stay alive in the NFC South race, while the Bills are looking to avoid back-to-back losses for the first time this season.
FanDuel Sportsbook’s futures odds shed some light on how the rest of the season could unfold for both teams. The Bills currently sit at 12/1 odds to win Super Bowl LVIII (tied for sixth-best) while the Buccaneers are available at a distant 110/1 (tied for 19th-best).
Moneyline
It isn’t a surprise to see the Bills heavily favored on the moneyline at -460. They’re one of the NFL’s best teams despite last week’s loss, and their odds this time around carry an implied win probability of 81.8%.
The Bills have proven this season that they can bounce back from the jaws of defeat, having outscored the Raiders and Giants by a combined 52-19 following their two losses this season.
There’s a good chance that trend continues given the offensive opportunities that Tampa Bay’s defense surrenders, especially through the air. Entering Week 8, the Buccaneers are allowing 246.7 passing yards per game – sixth-most in the league – while surrendering a 66.5% completion rate, which ranks 20th overall.
That’s a juicy matchup for the Bills’ Josh Allen, who’s been one of the best quarterbacks this season and owns the fifth-shortest odds to win MVP (+1000).
While his seven interceptions are tied for the third-most by any player this season, he’s still averaging 263 yards per game and has completed 70.7% of passes with 15 touchdowns – both of which rank in the top three among all passers.
If the Bills’ offense can build an early lead, it’ll be tough for the Buccaneers — who rank sixth-worst in scoring (17.2 PPG)— to keep up, especially if Tampa Bay quarterback Baker Mayfield (knee) isn’t healthy enough to play.
Point Spread
While the Bills are in a great spot to win outright in Week 8, covering the 8.5-point spread is another story.
Buffalo has been a shaky bet against the spread as of late, posting a 3-4 ATS record this year with a 3-6 ATS run dating back to last season. Sean McDermott’s squad has also failed to cover the spread in four of its last five games played in October.
The Buccaneers, meanwhile, are 2-0 straight-up on the road this season, covering the spread in both victories. They’ve also historically done well against the spread when facing the Bills, going 7-1-1 ATS in the last nine meetings between these teams.
Buffalo has proven it can win by a lot, earning three of its wins by 28 or more points. Nevertheless, a 1-2 outright record in the Bills’ last three games makes them hard to trust, especially with the only win during that span being a five-point victory over the lowly Giants.
At the end of the day, the Buccaneers look like the better pick against the spread. The Bills’ play over the last three weeks has been concerning and they have a long way to go to prove that they can get back to winning games by multiple possessions.
Over/Under
Considering how the Buccaneers and Bills have been playing as of late, the Under on this total is the more appealing option.
These TNF foes are used to low-scoring affairs in 2023, as the Under is a combined 9-4 in their games this season. Furthermore, the Under is 8-2 in Tampa Bay’s last 10 road games, as well as 5-0 in Buffalo’s five previous Thursday night contests.
The potential of a shootout is also low given how both sides are struggling to score the ball.
The Buccaneers are averaging the sixth-fewest points this season and have been held to 13 or fewer points in three of their last four games. Meanwhile, the Bills averaged 19.7 points in their last three outings, which is well below their season average of 28.3 PPG.
If that isn’t convincing enough, the last eight Buccaneers vs. Bills matchups saw an average of just 39.4 total points, finishing below Thursday’s total (42.5) in half of those contests.
Until both sides can prove that they can consistently score the ball as they did earlier this season, chances are there won’t be a ton of fireworks on Thursday night, especially if Mayfield is out or limited by injury.
Player Prop
One player prop to consider is taking Stefon Diggs to score an anytime touchdown (+100).
The Bills’ No. 1 wide receiver has been on fire, finding the end zone in three of his last four games with a total of five touchdowns during that stretch. He’s consistently a threat to score on any night given that he sees a team-high 11.1 targets per contest.
Diggs’ hot streak has a great chance of continuing against the Buccaneers’ underwhelming secondary. He’s already had past success against the organization, recording 15 catches for 247 receiving yards and a pair of TDs in two previous clashes with Tampa Bay.
After hauling in a 25-yard touchdown against the Giants last week, look for more of the same from Diggs against a Bucs defense that can’t stop the pass.
Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images
