Bills vs. Dolphins TNF Week 2: Promos, Odds, Predictions, Picks & Best Bets

The Bills and Dolphins each play to the other’s weakness, at least based on their Week 1 results. Miami struggled to defend the Jaguars’ rushing attack, yielding 128 yards and a touchdown on the ground. Things won’t get any easier against Buffalo, which racked up 130 rushing yards and two scores last week.

Meanwhile, the Bills had trouble defending a team that won four games last year, allowing 28 points to Kyler Murray & Co. Now they’ll face a dangerous Dolphins offense that amassed 400 total yards last week.

The oddsmakers have this game close to a pick’em, making the moneyline viable on either side. Buffalo has dominated this series, however, winning four straight and 11 of the past 12 meetings. The Bills’ lone blemish was a 21-19 loss to Miami in September 2022 despite outgaining the Dolphins 497 to 212 in total yardage.

Miami looked impressive in Week 1 and has played well in September under Mike McDaniel (7-1), but I’ll bet on the Dolphins to beat Buffalo when I see they can do it. The Bills have won seven of their last eight games dating back to last season, so take Buffalo on the moneyline, especially at plus odds.

The spread isn’t significant enough to take from a Bills perspective, but if you’re backing Miami you should lay -2.5 points.

That’s because most NFL games are decided by at least three points (a field goal). If Buffalo loses, it will likely be by more than 2.5 points. And if the Dolphins win, they’ll likely prevail by more than 2.5.

For reference, 15 of 16 Week 1 games were decided by at least three points.

That said, this has been a close series, which isn’t unusual for a division rivalry. Four of the past five games have been decided by one score, including three by three points or less.

We recommend Bills +2.5, but taking them to win outright at better odds or backing an alternate spread of at least +3 (for more protection) are better plays.

These are two of the best offenses in football with MVP-caliber quarterbacks, dynamic receivers and budding running backs.

Not surprisingly, the Over has hit in three of their last four matchups, and we expect that trend to continue this week.

Both teams combined for 54 points and 752 yards of total offense last week, so they’re already firing on all cylinders. We should see plenty of fireworks in a short week where the defenses won’t have much time to prepare.

Take the Over in what should be a fun, entertaining game.

Josh Allen Anytime Touchdown (+100)

Allen scored two rushing touchdowns in the opener and now has 17 rushing scores in his last 16 regular-season games, including one in two games against Miami during that stretch.

With his speed and size (6-foot-5, 237 pounds), Allen is basically a running back, especially down near the goal line. Back him to put up at least one rushing touchdown against a Dolphins defense that got gashed on the ground last week.

Tua Tagovailoa Under 268.5 Passing Yards (-113)

Tagovailoa has an embarrassment of riches on offense, including Hill and Jaylen Waddle. If Miami goes with a pass-heavy game script again as in Week 1, he’ll probably clear the Over on this prop bet.

But Tagovailoa has struggled against the Bills, going 1-6 against them with a 61.1% completion rate and a 6:7 TD/INT ratio. He’s gone under 269 passing yards in five of seven games against them, averaging just 207.8 passing yards per game.

The two times he went over 269 passing yards both involved garbage-time yards in blowout losses. Based on the odds, however, this game shouldn’t be a blowout.

If the game stays close, the Dolphins won’t need to air it out as much and may try to run the ball more to keep it out of Allen’s hands.

• For more NFL props, check out our full Week 2 TNF prop bets here.

• Moneyline: Bills (+120). Buffalo has dominated Miami recently and Allen is harder to contain than Tagovailoa thanks to his legs.
• Spread: Bills +2.5 (-105). If the Bills win they’ll also cover, but take them at +3 instead if they lose by a field goal.
• Total: Over 48.5 (-115). Both offenses are electric and loaded with offensive weapons, while both defenses could wear down in the Miami heat and humidity, especially in a short week with less recovery time.
• Prop 1: Josh Allen Anytime Touchdown (+100). Allen is a dominant rushing threat down near the goal line who scored twice last week. Taking him to cross the pylons as a rusher is a must-bet.
• Prop 2: Tua Tagovailoa Under 268.5 Passing Yards (-113). The Buffalo limited Kyler Murray to just 162 passing yards on 31 attempts last week, plus Tagovailoa has struggled mightily against the Bills throughout his career.

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