Betting Preview
Game Details
- Who: Denver Broncos at Miami Dolphins
- When: Sunday, Sept. 24 (Week 3)
- Time: 1 p.m. ET
- Where: Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, FL)
Betting Odds Summary
- Moneyline: Broncos +240, Dolphins -298
- Spread: Broncos +6.5 (-105), Dolphins -6.5 (-115)
- Total: Over/Under 48 (-108/-112)
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. Subject to change.
The 2023 NFL schedule continues with another exciting slate lined up for Week 3. A couple of AFC playoff hopefuls collide early Sunday afternoon as the Denver Broncos aim to hand the Miami Dolphins their first loss of the new campaign.
The Broncos head into Week 3 winless following a 35-33 loss to the Washington Commanders. Meanwhile, the Dolphins are coming off a 24-17 win over the New England Patriots, highlighted by running back Raheem Mostert’s 121-yard, two-touchdown performance.
A glance at DraftKings Sportsbook’s futures odds indicates that this could be a lopsided matchup. Miami heads into Week 3 with +1300 odds to win the Super Bowl, while Denver is much further back at +7000.
Moneyline
The Dolphins enter this matchup as a strong home favorite on the moneyline.
Miami has handled its business on both sides of the ball this year. The offense has been firing on all cylinders, averaging a league-leading 462.5 total yards per game and 30.0 points per game (tied for second-best in the NFL).
Defensively, the Dolphins looked impressive last week as they held the Patriots to 17 and an average of 4.1 yards per play. What’s even more impressive is that Miami also held New England to just one field goal through the game’s first three quarters.
The Broncos’ attack was clicking last week, but their defense left much to be desired. Not only did Denver allow 35 points to Washington, but Sean Payton’s team couldn’t even get one stop on the Commanders’ three red-zone trips.
At the end of the day, the Dolphins’ offense presents a stiffer test that the Broncos might not be ready to handle. Unless Denver has its best defensive performance in a long time, this game is Miami’s to lose.
Point Spread
In addition to the moneyline, the Dolphins are a good option to cover the spread this weekend. Miami covered in each of its first two matchups, while the Broncos are off to an 0-2 start against the spread this season.
The Dolphins proved last week that they can win by a decent margin, overcoming the Patriots by a touchdown while holding New England out of the end zone until the fourth quarter.
Miami is now 5-0 ATS in its last five games dating back to last season and is 6-1 ATS in its last seven September games. Meanwhile, Denver is an underwhelming 2-4 ATS in its last six September outings.
It’s also difficult to trust the visitors to cover when the Dolphins are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games against the Broncos.
Miami is a lethal team that only needs a small opportunity to blow the floodgates open. If Denver doesn’t play mistake-free football from the get-go, this could get ugly early on.
Over/Under
This game’s Over/Under total sits at 48 points, and it’s difficult not to like the Over.
For starters, the Dolphins are one of the NFL’s highest-scoring teams this year. The Broncos are coming off a 33-point performance.
A high-scoring affair is a real possibility, even if only one team does most of the heavy lifting. Denver gave up 35 points and 388 total yards to the Sam Howell-led Commanders, meaning Tua Tagovailoa and co. are likely salivating at the upcoming matchup.
And even though Miami is the better team, it remains to be seen if its defense is legit. The Dolphins looked good last week but surrendered 34 points to the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 1, so it’s hard to know which version will show up here.
Don’t be surprised if Miami jumps out to a huge lead, resulting in Denver piling up some points in garbage time.
The Over is now 6-1 in the Broncos’ last seven games dating back to 2022, while four of the Dolphins’ last five meetings with an AFC West team ended with more points than expected. With the way the early season has been shaping up, don’t expect those trends to change this week.
Player Prop
One attractive player prop for this game is Miami wideout Tyreek Hill scoring an anytime touchdown at -120 odds.
Hill has been one of the NFL’s best wide receivers for some time and that hasn’t changed this season. The former West Alabama product has already racked up 255 receiving yards in just two games while finding the end zone a league-leading three times.
After allowing only nine touchdowns to WRs in 2022, Denver has already surrendered three to the position in two games. Hill also has four TDs in his last six meetings with the Broncos.
With fellow Dolphins WR Jaylen Waddle potentially sidelined with a concussion, Hill’s target share will likely increase. As long as Tagovailoa continues to throw him the ball, the 29-year-old is one of football’s best scoring threats.
Photo by Jamie Schwaberow/Sports Illusatrated/Getty Images
